The formation of the logistics economy, as well as the development of the regional economy, occurs against the backdrop of the development innovation diffusion theories T. Hegerstrand (Torsten Hegerstrand Swedish. Stig Torsten Erik Hägerstrand; 1916 – 2004, Swedish geographer).

The diffusion of innovations is a spatio-temporal process, the essence of which lies in the fact that within the framework of macroeconomic and regional development associated with the change of leading industries during the “long waves”, the most important role is played by the emergence of centers of innovation and the speed of their diffusion in the economic space.

According to this theory, diffusion, i.e. dissemination, dispersion across the territory of various economic innovations (new types of products, technologies, organizational experience, etc.), can be of three types: expansion (when the innovation spreads evenly in all directions from the point of origin), movement (diffusion in a certain direction) and mixed type. One generation (generation) of innovation has four stages: emergence, diffusion, accumulation, saturation.

The main provisions of T. Hegerstrand's theory:

territorial diffusion of innovations has certain laws of distribution and can be modeled;

diffusion of innovations is a decisive factor in determining the social effect (primarily migration) for center-peripheral relations;

the speed of diffusion depends not on the geometric distance, but on the transmission capacity of the individual cities through which it is carried out, on how intense and effective contacts between people are there.

T. Hegerstrand's theory reflects the wave-like nature of the diffusion of innovation generations. In terms of content it is close large cycle theory (“long waves”) by Russian economist N.D. Kondratyeva 1.

Regional life cycle theory

Closely related to the theory of innovation diffusion regional life cycle theory (R. Vernon, C. Kindelberger, L. Wales), which also supports the economics of logistics. It considers the process of production of goods in several stages: the emergence of a new product, the growth of its production, maturity (saturation), and reduction.

The innovation stage requires personal contacts; Therefore, large cities are the most favorable place to locate innovation. Active production can be located in peripheral regions. But this creates a risk for small cities, since after the saturation stage, production begins to decline or cease until other innovations appear in large cities.

According to this theory, regional economic policy should focus on creating favorable conditions for the innovation stage in less developed regions. A similar approach should take place in logistics systems. The theory also explains foreign trade relations between states in the exchange of finished products, consolidates the international technological advantages of highly developed states, where innovations are implemented and initial production is carried out with the subsequent development of exports to other countries, and then the transition to the import of these goods from the latter.

Diffusion of innovations (innovations)

One of the new directions in modern geography is the theory of “diffusion of innovations”, which is formed within the framework of the spatio-temporal concept of the Swedish geographer Torsten Hagerstrand . According to this theory, the entire process of socio-economic development is a consequence of the emergence and spread (diffusion) of innovations. Under innovations refers to purposeful changes that introduce new, relatively stable elements of a social, economic, political and other nature into the distribution environment. Examples of innovations are technological improvements, new sources of raw materials and energy, new materials, goods, services, even “new ideas,” etc.

The concept of innovation diffusion was later generalized and systematized by American sociologist Everett Rogers in his book “Diffusion of Innovations.” The key elements in the study of diffusion, according to E. Rogers, are innovation, communication channels, time (the period of decision-making about innovation) and the social system. Diffusion of innovations includes five stages: 1) knowledge, 2) beliefs, 3) decision, 4) implementation, 5) confirmation (Figure 8.6).

Rice. 8.6.

In the process of innovation diffusion, E. Rogers identifies five categories of innovation consumers ( adopter categories) (Fig. 8.7).

• 1. Innovators (2.5%). People who are the first to adopt innovations. This is a young group. Innovators are willing to take risks, have the highest social status, good access to sources of information, and are financially secure.
• 2. Early Adopters (13.5%). As a rule, these are social leaders, popular, well-educated, who can present the benefits of innovation. Their decision to adopt an innovation is based on the degree of fit they perceive between the benefits of the new technology and their interests.
• 3. Early Majority (34%). They are thoughtful, more cautious than early adopters, but adopt an innovation earlier than the average adopter; have many informal social contacts. This category serves the important function of legitimizing the innovation by demonstrating to the rest of the community that the innovation is useful and its adoption is desirable.
• 4. Late majority (34%). They tend to be skeptical of innovation and only accept an innovation when the majority has already accepted it; have a lower socioeconomic status. The motivating factor for the adoption of innovation for this group is the pressure of a social group or it is determined by economic necessity.
• 5. Laggards (16%). This group of people is the last to embrace innovation. They are conservative, focused on “tradition,” do not like change, accept innovation only when it has become an accepted norm, tradition; The main sources of information are neighbors and friends. This is an older age category, with low social status and low financial security.

Rice. 8.7. :

black line – consumers of innovation; gray – the spread of innovations in the market to the level of saturation

E. Rogers identifies several essential characteristics of an innovation that influence a person’s decision to accept or reject it. These include:

• relative advantage (to what extent the new product is better than existing analogues);
• compatibility with the traditional (existing) state (compliance of the innovation with the value system and experience of individuals);
• difficulty or ease of perception or use of a new product;
• ease of testing (how easily the innovation can be tested);
• communicability (the possibility or obviousness of describing the benefits of innovation).

The concept of diffusion of innovations in modern geography simultaneously includes two approaches: synchronous, which is based on the description of the spatial distribution of diffusion objects and the determination of connections between them, and diachronic, aimed at studying the spatial variability of phenomena to study the variability of socio-economic phenomena and processes in a spatiotemporal perspective. The basis of the methodology was a model of wave diffusion of innovations, calculated on the basis of a Monte Carlo-type simulation model based on the assumptions of the theory of stochastic processes.

Diffusion of innovations is a spatiotemporal process. The conceptual basis of the process was outlined in the broadest terms L. Suarez-Villa. Its essence lies in the fact that within the framework of macroeconomic and regional development associated with the change of leading industries during the “long waves” II. D. Kondratiev, the most important role is played by the emergence of centers of innovation and the speed of their diffusion in the economic space. In both aspects of diffusion - sectoral and territorial - the importance of the institution of entrepreneurship itself, the direct and indirect impact of entrepreneurship on innovation, the speed of diffusion and wave changes is great. Since the end of the 18th century. (the first industrial revolution) to the present day, the role of entrepreneurship in the diffusion of innovations can be divided into five types: capital expenditure, intermarket linkages, production coordination, strategic planning and invention.

There are a huge number of signs and forms of innovation, which requires their systematization. There are three most common grounds for systematizing innovations: type of innovation; implementation mechanism; principle of relation to the predecessor.

• 1. By type of innovation innovations are divided into logistical (equipment, technology, industrial materials, etc.) and social (new material incentives, forms of labor organization, changes in labor and economic legislation, pedagogical).
• 2. By features of the implementation mechanism innovations are divided into single (i.e. implementation and operation occurs only at one facility), diffusion (replication, distribution and adaptation occurs over large areas), completed And unfinished (depending on the stage of innovation creation).
• 3. By type of attitude towards one's predecessor The following innovations are highlighted: a) replacing (completely displacing its predecessor); b) canceling (exclude any functions or operations without replacing them with new ones); V) returnable (return of the predecessor to the existing market).

In addition, for systematization, there are degree of influence on the environment or innovative potential. Innovations based on these characteristics are divided into radical – they introduce radically new elements and changes, and modifying, that change, complement or combine existing forms of life activity in the environment without changing the fundamental principles and foundations.

The state of the environment as a potential adapter is constantly changing. Therefore, innovation can be late, on time And leading the very development of the environment. The boundaries between these types of innovations are very conditional, since the innovations themselves contain elements of all these types, but in various combinations and combinations. Diffusion of innovations occurs through the spread of innovations in the adaptation environment. This movement has a discrete or potential character. In the first case, the innovation will be transmitted from innovation centers or transmission centers to certain localized points in the environment. In the second case, the innovation spreads in all directions. It is not necessarily uniform and largely depends on the adaptive capabilities of the environment.

The diffusion of innovations is the process of expanding the territory covered by technical, technological, social, political and other innovations, i.e. reflects the territorial aspect of scientific and technological progress. In the course of the spread of innovations, several stages are distinguished, using the concept of “life cycle” - the period of existence of an innovation from its inception to routinization. This phasing in general can be presented as follows.

First stage. Generation, emergence, creation of an idea - prototype of this innovation. At this stage, new ideas are generated, which must have novelty and potential market need for the product or process.

Second stage. Mastering this innovation on a narrow, experimental scale. It is characterized by the experimental implementation of developed innovations on site, the implementation of adjustments and necessary improvements.

Third stage. The actual distribution, diffusion of innovations – the process of dissemination, repeated repetition, the introduction of changes necessary for the successful functioning of an innovation under the influence of a specific environment, adaptation or rejection depending on existing conditions. The development of innovations is a complex process, which is influenced by four main factors: a) some features of the innovation process itself; b) the requirements of the new technological process for production conditions; c) the same requirements for production and non-production infrastructure; d) conditions existing in the area where the recipient enterprise is located.

Fourth stage. Rutinization or the functioning of an innovation in full. At this final stage, innovation is implemented in stable, constantly functioning elements of the corresponding environmental objects. Production becomes mass, and the innovation enjoys market demand.

Similar stages of innovation diffusion were identified by T. Hagerstrand: original which is characterized by a sharp contrast between the source of innovation and peripheral areas; the second stage, in which new rapidly developing centers are being formed in remote areas from where innovations spread; stage condensation, when there is equal diffusion of innovations in all places, and the stage saturation, characterized by a slow rise to a maximum.

The process of diffusion of innovations occurs in two spheres of human activity: in production, among entrepreneurs - these are most often technical and technological innovations; in the sphere of consumption - a new type of goods and services.

The wide spread of innovations in the modern world required the development innovation policy – systems of economic, scientific, technical, legal, organizational and other measures aimed at providing the necessary conditions for the effective use of scientific and technical progress achievements in the economic development of regions and increasing the level of well-being of the population. Regional innovation policy is an important component of innovation policy, taking into account the characteristics of the regional structure, territorial heterogeneity and uneven socio-economic development of individual regions. Its main tasks are:

• ensuring effective employment of labor resources and creating additional jobs through the formation and expansion of new knowledge-intensive industries;
• renewal of traditional, technically outdated and environmentally hazardous industries, development of the scientific and technical potential of the region;
• dissemination of progressive, safe technologies from scientific centers, where innovations are born, to environmentally disadvantaged areas.

The diffusion of innovations can be either discrete or continuous. In most cases, it is transmitted spasmodically from innovation centers to certain localized points in space, bypassing intermediate territorial units. The continuous nature of the movement lies in the spread of innovations in all directions, throughout the entire territory surrounding the innovation center. The movement of innovation can take on a wave or unidirectional form. The wave form includes the process of transferring innovation from the center to the adaptation environment and returning the environment's response to the innovation to the innovation center. This movement occurs unevenly, with varying intensity depending on environmental conditions.

For many innovative objects in geographic space, there is an optimal point where they function best, the so-called local optimum. If an object is located outside this point, then a force called “place pressure” or “position pressure” acts on it. Under the influence of positional pressure, objects can change their location, physical properties and functions, and if they are unable to make such changes, they degrade and cease to exist. In relation to innovations, positional pressure operates along lines emanating from innovation centers, which are channels for transmitting information about innovations. Whether an object finds its local optimum with less losses for itself and the environment largely depends on its awareness of the outside world.

Innovations choose for themselves the spatial location where they can proceed best, and under the influence of positional pressure, in conditions of environmental uncertainty, they will either change the location for a better one, or degrade, or change the environment itself.

Based on the nature of the spread of innovations, expansion diffusion and displacement diffusion are distinguished.

Expansion diffusion occurs as a result of direct contact, when innovations - material objects and ideas - spread from one place to another. At the same time, those phenomena and processes, the scope of which is expanding, remain in the areas of their origin and often become more numerous and pronounced there (for example, the spread of diseases during epidemics). Expansion diffusion is carried out in two ways - contagious And cascading. Contagious diffusion of innovations is associated with direct contacts and, to a large extent, with the factor of distance and the presence of demarcation barriers (natural, economic, social, political, etc.). Moreover, in the conditions of the information revolution, the distance of objects from each other is determined not so much by the actual distance between them, but by the ability to exchange information or material objects in the shortest possible period of time. Cascade diffusion means the process of transferring innovations through a regular sequence of subordinate gradations, i.e. hierarchical system (for example, from large cities to medium and small cities).

Diffusion of movement – this is the spread of innovations in space, during which they leave the territories where they originated and move to new regions. This type includes the diffusion of outdated or environmentally hazardous innovations and their washout from more developed industrial centers to the periphery of scientific and technological progress, which occurs both at the global level and within a single state. Diffusion of movement comes down to the following: if an innovation does not find its local optimum in a given territory, then, spreading to other territories, this process takes the form of diffusion of movement.

Innovation processes are the most important factor in the evolution of territorial economic structures of two types. The first is a system of countries and regions, among which there is a more developed core and a periphery closely connected with it; the second is a hierarchical system of cities as the main centers of innovation, including more developed centers - generators of innovation and centers of lower rank dependent on them. The center of diffusion (usually a large city) serves as a focal point that spreads flows of matter, energy, information to the surrounding periphery and generally transmits its characteristics to the landscape. It is characterized by a concentration of qualified scientific, technical and production personnel, a high level of education and culture, good opportunities for information exchange; there are scientific, economic, financial bases, etc.

According to T. Hagerstrand, the diffusion of innovations occurs in accordance with the existing system of cities, according to their hierarchy, i.e. from the largest metropolitan centers to provincial settlements. Moreover, the movement to the peripheral areas of innovation from large cities goes through medium-sized and then small cities.

Geographical aspects of studying the diffusion of innovations consist in identifying the patterns of this process in geographic territorial systems and the relationship and connection of various aspects of this process (economic, social, cultural, etc.) with the territory.

The diffusion of innovations is also considered as a consequence of the process of territorial concentration. The essence of the process is that innovations, as a rule, lead to change and development of individual regions, and ultimately the country as a whole. This is due to scientific and technical progress, and, therefore, the role of innovation is especially significant in the socio-economic reorganization of regions. The process is carried out through the functioning and change of the area. Various types of innovations, intertwining and entering into relationships with each other, ultimately lead to changes, and the latter to development. It follows that innovations are a lever for change and development of both society as a whole and its individual regions.

Innovations tend to increase regional differences, and they can have both negative and positive effects on regional development. This provision should be decisive when developing the concept of innovation in geography.

The theory of “diffusion of innovations” is directly related to the concepts of dynamic, propulsive, key and leading industries. All of them influence other industries in a certain way and largely determine their location.

Dynamic industry – one that can quickly adapt due to changes in market conditions. Propulsion industry has a high impulse, which it transmits to related industries along the lines of demand and consumption; It is these industries that form the basis of industrial complexes. Key Industry completes the pyramid of a large group of supplier industries that it can thus control. Leading - this is a special group of industries, characterized by the fact that they are relatively new, differ in the modern level of technology and production technology, are able to generate, accept and transfer innovations to a greater extent, and also operate in conditions of rapidly growing demand for their products. The combination of these industries, their relationships with each other and the environment, as well as their spatial location form the basis of the theory of growth poles.

Diffusion of innovations is the process by which innovations (new products, ideas, technologies, etc.) gradually gain acceptance in social systems.

The name of the term comes from Lat. diffusio - spreading, spreading, scattering. In physics, the term “diffusion” is understood as a gradual process of mixing gases, liquids, etc. For example, if you drop a drop of ink into water, after some time the entire liquid will become uniformly colored, but this does not happen instantly. Various factors affect the speed of this process, for example, at high temperatures, liquids mix faster than at low temperatures.

By analogy with physical processes, the term “diffusion of innovations” emphasizes that the spread of innovations - the penetration of new products into the market, the acceptance of new ideas by society, the introduction of new technologies into production - occurs relatively slowly. Diffusion of innovation theory seeks to explain how, why, and at what speed innovations gain acceptance in their target market.

The term “diffusion of innovations” became widespread after the publication of a book of the same name by the American sociologist Everett Rogers in 1962, although similar ideas were expressed at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries by the French sociologist Jean Tarde (1890), the German ethnographer Leo Frobenius and others. In his book, E. Rogers summarized the results of early research and presented a theory of innovation acceptance at the individual level, in organizations and in society as a whole.

Innovation can spread in a social system only through its recognition by individual elements of the system - consumers, if we are talking about introducing a new product to the market, enterprises, if a new technology is spreading, and the like. This process of recognition E. Rogers called adaptation of innovation. Modeling the decision-making process for adaptation by elements of social systems occupies a central place in the theory of “diffusion of innovations.”

An innovation spreads through communication over time in a social system. In this regard, the following key elements of the theory can be identified:

1) innovation - defined by E. Rogers as “an idea, practical activity or object that is perceived as something new by an individual or other unit of adaptation”;

2) communication channels - means of transmitting messages from one individual to another;

3) adaptation time - the relative speed with which innovation is adapted by members of the social system

4) social system - a set of interconnected units that engage in common problem solving to achieve a common goal. Although E. Rogers' theory is general in nature, the nature of the elements of the social system leaves its mark on the decision-making process about adapting innovations. In particular, it is important whether such a decision is carried out voluntarily or compulsorily, individually or collectively. In accordance with these factors, E. Rogers identifies three types of decisions on adaptation of innovations:

1) optional adaptation - the decision is made individually on a voluntary basis;

2) collective adaptation - the decision is made collectively by all members of the social system

Diffusion of innovations occurs gradually among members of the social system with the help of communication channels for their adaptation. However, in the process of making decisions about their adaptation, product innovations can be divided into five stages (Fig. 1).

1. Knowledge. The consumer learns about the existence of a new product, but lacks information about its usefulness. At this stage, the consumer does not yet have the motivation to search for additional information about the new product.

Rice. 1. Making decisions about adapting innovations

2. Belief. The consumer becomes interested in the new product and actively seeks information about it.

3. Acquisition. The consumer weighs the pros and cons and decides whether to purchase a new product. Since this decision is personal and can be either positive or negative, for most new products this stage is critical; many product innovations never overcome this barrier.

4. Usage. The consumer uses a new product and can come to a conclusion about its usefulness now on the basis of personal experience. If it turns out to be positive, the consumer may become interested in continuing to use the new product.

5. Confirmation. The consumer decides to extend the use of the new product. This decision is often made at both the personal and group levels; the use of the product by other consumers can serve as confirmation for the consumer that his decision to purchase the product was correct.

Other non-commodity innovations go through similar stages.

Everett Rogers was born and raised in a farming family. He would have worked on the farm, like the rest of his family, if one day his teacher had not taken him along with other outstanding high school students to Iowa State University, where he decided to get a degree in agriculture. During those years, Iowa had a strong intellectual tradition of agricultural development. Rural sociologists conducted pioneering studies of the diffusion of innovations such as high-yield hybrid grains and chemical fertilizers. They wondered why some farmers embrace such innovations while others prefer to do things the old fashioned way. Questions like these interested Everett greatly.

From the farm, Everett remembers that his father liked to use various electromechanical innovations, while he did not accept such new biological-chemical ideas as hybrid seeds, despite the fact that they yielded 20 percent more crops and were drought-resistant. However, Everett's father became convinced of the effectiveness of such innovations only during the drought of 1936, when the neighbor's sprouts of hybrid grains were many times superior in quality to the shriveled tops on the Rogers farm.

In 1962, Everett published an analysis of agricultural literature, which later grew into an entire book, Diffusion of Innovations. He argued that the diffusion of an innovation is a process general to any field, unrelated to the type of innovation, location, successors, or culture. This book provides a comprehensive theory of how innovation spreads through a social system.

At the time of the publication of the first edition of the book, its author was 31 years old. Everett Rogers became an internationally renowned academic figure, and his book Diffusion of Innovation became the second most cited work in the social sciences.

What is diffusion

When the World Health Organization launched a global campaign to eradicate syphilis, it was engaged in diffusion or, more simply put, distribution. When Apple released the I-POD, it was a new product release. When professional dancers, as well as those confined to wheelchairs, perform on stage, they spread a new idea of ​​what human possibility is.

According to Rogers, diffusion is the process by which, over a given period and through specific channels, innovations spread among different members of a social society. Innovation means an idea, object or action that is perceived by individuals as new. The dissemination process usually occurs through two components: the media and interpersonal communication channels. In the modern world, these components are combined with the help of modern information technologies, such as the Internet and mobile communications, which play the role of key diffusion tools.

Distinctive Features of Diffusion Research

Several distinctive features of innovation diffusion set it apart from other areas of communication research.

1. The study of the diffusion of innovations began during the Second World War, even before the establishment of such a scientific and academic discipline as communication studies in universities. Thus, the study of diffusion was initially viewed simply as a manifestation of research activity rather than as a subject of study for communication scientists.
2. Although many observers of the process of diffusion of innovations agree that it is inherently a communication process, communication scholars currently constitute only a small part of the advancers in the study of diffusion, along with geography, education, marketing, health care, economics, political science, and others.
3. A distinctive feature of the study of diffusion is that the messages transmitted are completely new to the recipients. This newness inevitably means that the recipient experiences a high degree of uncertainty in seeking information and in deciding whether to accept and implement the proposed innovation.
4. The study of diffusion takes a closer look at time as a variable than does other communication sciences. Time is involved in the diffusion of innovations in three aspects:

a) decision-making regarding an innovation: the mental process from familiarization with the essence of the innovation to its acceptance and confirmation;

b) innovativeness - the degree of possible acceptance of an innovation before becoming familiar with it against the background of other members of society;

c) rate of innovation adoption - the relative speed with which an innovation can be accepted by members of society.

5. The field of innovation diffusion, compared to other communication studies, pays special attention to interpersonal communication networks. Even from the first steps in the study of diffusion about 70 years ago, its nature was distinguished by the highly social nature of its processes, including interpersonal communication among similar individuals. Often, a person evaluates a new idea and decides whether to accept it or not based on discussion with colleagues who already have experience in accepting or rejecting the innovation in question. The main function of mass communications is to create awareness regarding the proposed innovation. The study of the diffusion of innovations affects both individual and mass communications, which leads to a dichotomy - the division of communication into two branches of science. The dichotomy continues as the dissemination of information continues to occur through the Internet, mobile phones and other gadgets.

The foundations of diffusion research are also attributed to the early 20th century, when anthropologists began to explore the role of technological innovation in generating cultural change. Most illustrative was the work of Clark Whisler (1923), who analyzed the spread of horse use among common Indians. As in the work of other anthropologists, the emphasis was on the consequences of innovation. For example, Whisler showed that the introduction of horses into the culture of ordinary Indians, who had previously lived in peaceful coexistence, led to almost continuous wars among neighboring tribes.

Studying Hybrid Seeds in Iowa

When Bruce Ryan, fresh from his doctorate in sociology at Harvard University, arrived in Iowa in 1938, he was intrigued by the academic question of the influence of noneconomic factors on economic behavior. However, Iowa State University had an agricultural focus, so Ryan decided to study the diffusion of hybrid seeds. This innovation was critical to Iowa farmers as it could lead to a 20% increase in corn yield per acre. Ryan received funding for this research from the Iowa Agricultural Research Organization, which was instrumental in the development of hybrid seeds.

This important innovation had spread widely across Iowa in the years since its discovery, but state officials were concerned that such obvious benefits from new agricultural technologies took nearly a decade to reach widespread use. This type of doubt on the part of officials who do not understand why many apparently beneficial innovations are not widely adopted explains why diffusion research continues to be sponsored.

Ryan collaborated with University economists involved in the development of the hybrid grain, but his familiarity with earlier anthropological research had a greater influence on the progress of the diffusion research. However, Ryan's work did not rely on the ethnographic approaches of previous anthropological research, but on data generated by a questionnaire survey.

Ryan left the survey of several hundred farmers to a new student, University researcher Neil Gross. The choice of hybrid seed as a research innovation in the Ryan and Gross investigation was to cast a long intellectual shadow over future generations of diffusion studies. Hybrid seeds were an entirely beneficial innovation, as they significantly increased corn yields. Given the significant funding from the state, Ryan and Gross expected to see results indicating rapid adoption of the innovation by farmers. However, the study results showed that it took farmers between 7 and 12 years to move from awareness of the innovation to full-scale use of hybrid seeds.

The example with hybrid grains showed how even such a useful innovation can be difficult to accept in society. To begin with, farmers had to spend money on purchasing them from the manufacturing company. Then, the adoption of this innovation also meant that farmers no longer had to select the hardiest and most beautiful ears of corn to use as seed the following year. Thus, the choice to use hybrid grain implied a rejection of the previously existing practice based on the visual selection of open-pollinated seeds. Hybrid seeds were expected to usher in changes in the nature of Midwestern farming.

The University of Iowa is famous not only for its research on diffusion, but also for its pioneering efforts in the study of statistical methods in America. These methods for analyzing quantitative data began among agricultural statisticians such as Sir Ronald Fisher and Karl Pearson in England. They were designed to test hypotheses about the effects of fertilization, new trimming options, and changes in cattle rations. Techniques such as analysis of variance and regression arrived in America in the early 1930s when Sir Ronald decided to visit the University of Iowa to establish a statistics laboratory. Scientists who worked in this laboratory later became Ryan's informal consultants in the study of hybrid seeds. The study of hybrid seed diffusion among farmers was now subject to quantitative analysis, so that scientists could test a number of hypotheses on it.

That period was marked by the transition of a number of studies from qualitative methods of data analysis to quantitative ones. To keep up with the times and keep up with diffusion analysis, sociologists also began to use this method, taking respondents’ answers as units of study that can be analyzed quantitatively.

Focusing on individual farmers has led to the biggest shortcoming of the hybrid seed adoption study, as sociometric questions tapping farmers' interpersonal communications were not asked. The media often creates the appearance of citizen awareness of an innovation, but it is interpersonal communication with colleagues that is necessary to convince most people to accept a new idea.

Ryan and Gross then decided to identify the source of influence on farmers' decisions to adopt an innovation. In a follow-up survey, most respondents said that they learned about grain from seed traders, and their decision whether to adopt this innovation or not was largely influenced by the opinions and experiences of other farmers, neighbors and friends. Thus, Ryan and Gross were able to establish the importance of social networks in diffusion, but they did not investigate them adequately.

The dominant paradigm of innovation diffusion

Ryan and Gross's study of hybrid grain distribution formed a paradigm for further diffusion research, the main aspects of which are the following:

1. The main dependent variable is innovativeness, defined as the degree to which a new idea or product is adopted before others. For convenience, this variable is divided into the following categories of its owners: innovators, early adopters, early majority, subsequent majority and laggards.
2. When the total number of hybrid grain farmers surveyed over time was plotted on a distribution graph, an S-shaped curve was created. The frequency graph of the distribution of the number of farmers who adopted the innovation was bell-shaped, which indicated its normal distribution.
3. Iowa farmers' communication sources varied depending on the stage of decision making regarding the innovation. The main role at the stage of familiarization with the innovation was played by the media, while interpersonal communications played a decisive role at the stage of acceptance or non-acceptance of the innovation; in particular, the opinion of colleagues was the most authoritative.

The idea of ​​this paradigm spread at a very modest pace, the reason for which was the Second World War. In the post-war years, research fervor in the field of diffusion decreased noticeably, and fewer and fewer sociologists began to engage in research in this area, but this idea spread to the inquiring minds of other social sciences: marketing, engineering and education.

A landmark event in diffusion research at this time was Coleman, Katz, and Menzel's study of the distribution of tetracycline, a new drug, among physicians. Tetrocycline adoption rates followed an S-shaped curve, as did hybrid grain adoption rates, although the drug was distributed for only another 17 months rather than 12 years for the modified seeds. The innovation was most quickly adopted by doctors, who made numerous trips out of town and to various specialized medical meetings (as did innovative farmers, who often went into the city to buy goods). As in the case of the Iowa farmers, the media (in this case, articles in medical journals) played a role in informing the innovation, while peer-to-peer communication channels played a significant role in persuading physicians to try the new drug.

The significance of the study on the diffusion of this innovation is that Coleman found that doctors with more professional connections adopted the innovation much faster than their “isolated” colleagues, although everyone was equally informed about the drug through medical journals and pharmaceutical networks. They even offered free samples. In other words, medications have spread to a greater extent precisely thanks to interpersonal communication between doctors and colleagues.

Moreover, the publication of Rogers's seminal textbook on diffusion also helped expand the use of the paradigm in such sciences as geography, economics, philosophy, political science, and others.

Diffusion research methods

Most diffusion studies were conducted according to the Ryan and Gross methodology: data were collected through personal and telephone interviews. Respondents answered questions regarding the time they adopted a specific innovation, sources of information about it, channels of communication with their family and colleagues, and their personal characteristics. In other words, the person was the unit of analysis.

The dominant method for studying diffusion has been qualitative analysis of information collected through interviews with a large number of respondents. The effect of this method was to emphasize the understanding of the diffusion process as a product of individual decisions and actions. Emphasis was placed on the influence of interpersonal communications. In recent years, research has been conducted to study the impact of interactive means of disseminating innovations: fax and e-mail.

At a certain point in the diffusion process for any innovation, the adoption rate begins to suddenly increase. This surge in adoption rates creates an S-diffusion curve (see Figure 1).

For innovations that are a means of interactive communication, at a certain point the diffusion process becomes self-sustaining. After reaching a critical mass of those who have adopted the innovation, the rest of society feels that “everyone else” is already using this new product. With each successive adopter of an interactive innovation, the new idea becomes even more valuable to those who have not yet adopted it, and its importance increases to those who are already using it.

An example of the above would be the installation of a telephone by the first user in the United States almost 130 years ago. The first owner of the phone had no use for it, but after the second user installed the phone, its value increased. And this growth continued until the user began to assume that anyone he wanted to contact had a phone for this.

The Internet has spread faster than any other technological innovation in human history: it is faster, cheaper and more reliable than postal services and telephone calls. Internet adoption peaked in the 1990s, following the installation of personal computers in homes to which it could be connected. Many scientists compare the importance of the invention of the Internet with the importance of the advent of steam engines, railways, and electricity. All these inventions were “a novelty” at first, but then they significantly changed human life: the way we move, communicate, learn and work.

The Internet has become even more popular with the advent of Internet cafes, television centers and places with open access to it. That is, to be an Internet user, you no longer had to have a personal computer. The Internet has given birth to the era of e-business consisting of e-marketing and commerce.

Unlike the non-Internet era, when communication networks were ephemeral and difficult to access, the Internet allows for an electronic record of all messages exchanged between its users. Thus, the spread of the Internet has made possible a better understanding of how communication networks function during the diffusion of innovations.

Future diffusion trends

The popularity of studying diffusion processes, confirmed by many studies and publications, lies in its practical significance and applied nature. The diffusion of innovation confirms the importance of each specific society's own knowledge and experience in order to find suitable approaches to solving existing problems. One such approach is positive deviance.

Positive deviance is an approach to social change that allows communities to discover something they already have and then use it to solve problems. This approach was originally described in the work of Marian Zeitlin, who studied why children in some poor communities are better nourished than others. In the study, Zeitlin focused his attention not on the fact that something is not working correctly, but, on the contrary, on what is functioning well, so that he could focus on this in the future.

His colleague Sternin was developing a program to eliminate malnutrition in 65% of children in Vietnam, as traditional programs lost their effectiveness immediately after they were stopped. Building on Zeitlin's idea of ​​positive deviance, Sternin identified poor families who managed to avoid malnutrition without having access to any additional subsistence resources. Such families were “positive deviants”: “positive” because they achieved the results they wanted, and “deviants” because they did not act like the majority of members of their society.

Sternin found that mothers in such families collected tiny shrimp and crabs and added them with greens to the children's diet. These products were available to everyone, but most members of society considered them unsuitable for children's nutrition. Also, these mothers fed their children three to four times a day, and not twice, as was usually done.

Based on this data, Sternin developed a program that made it possible to transform families of starving children into families with positive deviations. Mothers of starving children were asked to start collecting small crabs, shrimp and greens and create new dishes using these ingredients. Within a week of the program, mothers saw improvements in the well-being of their children.

After a two-year pilot project, the number of malnourished children was reduced by 85% through the introduction of positive deviance. Over the next few years of the project, the idea of ​​emphasizing positive deviance became a national program in Vietnam, helping 2.2 million people improve the diets of about half a million hungry children.

Positive deviance questions the role of external knowledge and experience, believing that the solution to a problem is already embedded in society, it just needs to be found. It is the opposite of the idea that only new knowledge, that is, coming from outside, can solve existing problems. Currently, the idea of ​​positive deviance is used to address the problems of childhood anemia, female circumcision, child trafficking and low condom use.

The positive deviance approach to innovation diffusion is located at the crossroads of theory, method and practice. In theory, it gives preference to existing knowledge. Methodologically, it does not treat deviation as an anomaly, while traditional approaches to studying diffusion do. In practice, the positive deviation approach does not deny the possibility of new knowledge helping society.

The study of the diffusion of innovations heralds improvements in our understanding of how social change occurs, heralding scientific advances in all social subjects. For example, through diffusion research it is possible to learn what the role of technology is in generating social change: to study the process of diffusion at the micro level to identify social changes at the macro level.

In recent years, academic interest in communication technologies on the part of sociology students has generated equal interest in studying the diffusion of these innovations. And there is no reason to believe that this interest will fade away in the foreseeable future, as innovations continue to be continuously developed and implemented.

In addition, the diffusion of innovations helps to assess the importance of developing general knowledge about a subject and interpersonal communications within society. Moreover, innovations developed at the local level are adopted much faster, while if the belief comes from outside (from another society), people tend to shy away from its adoption.

However, there is no need to conduct the same type of diffusion studies: the emphasis on the individual as the object of innovation adoption should be expanded to the level of an organization or a specific community. Scientific observations and in-depth interviews must be supported by quantitative methods of data collection and analysis. More academic attention should also be paid to the consequences of the adoption of technological innovations.

Rogers Everett 1931 - 2004 USA American scientist who studied the mechanisms of the spread of innovations in society.

Diffusion is the process of communicating an innovation through certain channels over a specific period of time to members of a social system. This model of communication is called diffuse because any innovative ideas never cover the whole society at one moment, but gradually filter through various social groups and layers, communication channels. Part of society is ready to test new products (trend setters), another part is more conservative.

Stages of the diffusion process: 1. attention 2. interest 3. evaluation 4. verification 5. acceptance 6. confirmation

E. Rogers, in his work “Diffusion of Innovations” (1962), examined the “levels of adoption” of various innovations. He found that most graphs of innovation adoption by members of society resemble a standard curve divided into 5 parts.

Diffusion of innovation is the process by which innovation is transmitted through communication channels between members of a social system over time. Innovations can be ideas, objects, technologies that are new to society. That is, diffusion is a communication process during which a new idea or a new product is accepted by the market.

Interpersonal communication at the level of people of the same circle and age is very important. Patriotic appeals coming from government circles are ineffective. The media cannot change the behavior of those who hold a different point of view.