Indo-Pakistan conflict: origins and consequences (23.00.06)
Kharina Olga Alexandrovna,
student at Voronezh State University.
Scientific supervisor – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor
Slinko A.A.
The history of relations between India and Pakistan is unique: the conflict that exists between these countries is one of the most durable in all of modern history and officially dates back as many years as the independent existence of India and Pakistan itself. The issue of ownership of the disputed territories - Jammu and Kashmir - is the cornerstone on which all the political aspirations of Delhi and Islamabad in the region converge, but at the same time, the roots of the problem go back to ancient times, resting at its core on inter-religious and, partly, ethnic strife.
Islam began to penetrate into Indian territory in the 8th century, and close interaction between Hindu and Muslim cultures began at the turn of the 12th – 13th centuries, when the first states led by Muslim sultans and military leaders arose in Northern India.
Islam and Hinduism are not only different religions, but also alien ways of life. The contradictions between them seem insurmountable, and history shows that they were not overcome, and the confessional principle was one of the most effective tools of British colonial administration, carried out in accordance with the well-known rule of “divide and rule.” For example, elections to the Indian legislature were held in curiae formed according to religious affiliation, which undoubtedly fueled controversy.
The presentation of independence of British India on the night of August 14-15, 1947 and the partition of the country were accompanied by terrible clashes on religious and ethnic grounds. The death toll reached several hundred thousand people within a few weeks, and the number of refugees amounted to 15 million.
The problem of relations between the two main communities in India during the period of independence has two aspects: relations within the country and international relations with neighboring Pakistan, which is expressed in the Kashmir issue, which so seriously affects the atmosphere within states that even the Indian population in Pakistan and the Muslim population in India turns out to be agents of hostile powers.
Even during the Muslim conquest of India, Only the northern and central parts of Kashmir were under the rule of the Muslim rulers; as for the south (Jammu province), the dominance of Hindu princes from the Dogra people remained here . The eastern, inaccessible part of modern Kashmir - the province of Ladakh - only nominally recognized the dominance of the sultans of Kashmir. Local princes preserved Buddhism and maintained active trade relations with Tibet. It was during this period that ethnic, cultural and religious differences formed between the provinces of Kashmir, which still serve as the main source of tension in the region.
The British installed Hindu rulers over the Muslim population and at the beginning of the 20th century. In Kashmir, a number of discriminatory laws were passed against Muslims, relegating them to the status of “second-class” people. .
In 1932, Sheikh Abdullah founded Kashmir's first political party, the Muslim Conference, which in 1939 became known as the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference.
At the time of the partition of British India Muslims in Kashmir constituted about 80% of the population and, it seemed, its fate was predetermined: it was to become a province of Pakistan, but, according to the provisions of the law, the accession of a particular principality to India and Pakistan depended solely on the will of its ruler. Ruler of Jammu and Kashmir - Hari Singhwas a Hindu.
Already in October 1947, the dispute over the future of Kashmir escalated into a direct armed conflict between India and Pakistan.
The situation became more complicated when, on October 20–21, 1947, the Pakistani government provoked an uprising against the principality of Kashmir by the border Pashtun tribes, which were later supported by the regular troops of Pakistan.
On October 24, the creation of a sovereign entity, Azad Kashmir, was proclaimed in the territory occupied by Pashtuns. and its entry into Pakistan. Hari Singha declared that Kashmir adjoins India and appealed to Delhi for help. Military assistance was hastily sent to Kashmir, and Indian troops quickly managed to stop the aggressor.
From October 28 to December 22, negotiations took place between the warring parties. However, hostilities were never suspended; regular Pakistani military units soon became involved in them, which made the war protracted for one year.
Indian troops attempted to occupy Azad Kashmir, but in May 1948 the Pakistani army crossed the border and occupied all of northern Kashmir by August. Greater pressure from Indian troops on Pashtun detachments led to the fact that, with the mediation of the UN, hostilities were stopped on January 1, 1949. On July 27, 1949, India and Pakistan signed a ceasefire agreement and Kashmir was divided into two parts. Several UN resolutions called on the parties to hold a plebiscite, however, neither India nor Pakistan wanted to do this.Soon Azad Kashmir actually became part of Pakistan and a government was formed there, although, of course, India does not recognize this and on all Indian maps this territory is depicted as Indian. The events of that time went down in history as the First Kashmir War of 1947 - 1949.
In 1956, after the adoption of a law on a new administrative division of the country, India gave its Kashmir possessions a new status: the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The ceasefire line became a border. Changes have also taken place in Pakistan. Most of the northern Kashmiri lands received the name of the Northern Territories Agency, and Azad Kashmir formally became independent.
In August-September 1965, a second armed conflict occurred between India and Pakistan. Formally, the 1965 conflict began due to the uncertainty of the border line in the Rann of Kutch on the southern part of the joint India-Pakistan border, but the flames of war soon spread north to Kashmir.
The war actually did not end in anything - as soon as the monsoon rains began, the Rann of Kutch became unsuitable for the movement of armored vehicles, the fighting died down on its own, and with the mediation of Great Britain, a ceasefire was reached on September 23, 1965.
The results of the Second Indo-Pakistani War were damage of more than $200 million, a death toll of over 700 people and no territorial changes.
From January 4 to January 11, 1966, negotiations between the President of Pakistan Ayub Khan and the Prime Minister of India Shastri took place in Tashkent with the participation of the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the USSR Alexei Kosygin. On January 10, 1966, representatives of the parties signed the Tashkent Declaration . The leaders of the two countries expressed their firm resolve to restore normal and peaceful relations between India and Pakistan and promote mutual understanding and friendly relations between their peoples.
The 1971 war included civil insurrection, mutual terrorism and large-scale military action. While West Pakistan saw the war as a betrayal of East Pakistan, the Bengalis saw it as liberation from an oppressive and brutal political system.
In December 1970, the Awami League party, which advocated equal rights for both parts of the country, won the elections in East Pakistan. But the Pakistani government refused to hand over power to the Awami League and grant internal autonomy to the region. Punitive operations by the Pakistani army led to more than 7 million people fleeing to neighboring India.
At the same time, in 1970, the Indian government raised the issue of liberating the territory of the state of Jammu and Kashmir “illegally occupied” by Pakistan. Pakistan was also categorical and ready to resolve the Kashmir issue through military means.
The current situation in East Pakistan provided an excellent opportunity for India to weaken Pakistan's position and begin preparations for another war. At the same time, India appealed to the UN for assistance in the case of refugees from Pakistan, since their influx was too large.
Then, in order to secure its rear, on August 9, 1971, the Indian government signed the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the USSR, which also stipulated a strategic partnership. After establishing international contacts, India lacked only the slightest moments to start a war, and it took up the education and training of “mukti bahini”, which later played an important role in the war.
Formally, the Third Indo-Pakistani War can be divided into 2 stages. The first is pre-war, when hostilities took place between states, but there was no official declaration of war (autumn 1971). And the second is directly military, when war was officially declared by Pakistan (December 13 - 17, 1971).
By the fall of 1971, the Pakistani army managed to take control of the main strategic points in the eastern part of the country, but East Pakistani troops, operating from Indian territory together with the Mukti Bahini, inflicted significant damage on government troops.
On November 21, 1971, the Indian Army switched from supporting guerrillas to direct combat operations. In early December, units of the Indian army approached the capital of East Bengal, the city of Dhaka, which fell on December 6.
When the crisis in the subcontinent entered the phase of armed conflict in both the east and the west, UN Secretary General K. Waldheim presented reports to the Security Council on the situation on the ceasefire line in Kashmir, based on information from the chief military observer. On December 7, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution , which called on India and Pakistan to “take measures for an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of troops to their own side of the borders.”
On December 3, 1971, Pakistan officially declared war on India, which was accompanied by a simultaneous attack by the Pakistani Air Force, and Pakistani ground forces also went on the offensive. However, after just four days, Pakistan realized that the war in the east was lost. In addition, the Indian Air Force dealt a significant blow to the eastern provinces of West Pakistan. Further resistance in East Bengal lost its meaning: East Pakistan was almost completely out of the control of Islamabad, and military operations completely weakened the state.
On December 16, 1971, Pakistani General Niazi signed an act of unconditional surrender to the Indian army and the Mukti Bahini. The next day, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistani President Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto signed a ceasefire agreement in Kashmir. The Third Indo-Pakistani War ended with the complete defeat of Karachi and the victory of India and East Bengal.
The results of the war showed the serious weakness of Pakistan, since it was completely deprived of its eastern half: the main and global change in the post-war situation was the formation of a new state on the world map - the People's Republic of Bangladesh.
At the end of hostilities, Pakistan occupied approximately 50 square miles in the Chamba sector, controlling the communications of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, as well as parts of Indian territory in the Punjab. India captured about 50 Pakistani posts north and west of the ceasefire line and a number of areas of Pakistani territory in Punjab and Sindh. On December 21, 1971, the Security Council adopted resolution 307 , which demanded “that a lasting ceasefire and cessation of all hostilities in all conflict regions be strictly observed and remain in force until withdrawal.”
From June 28 to July 3, 1972, negotiations were held between Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the city of Simla. The agreement signed by the parties determined the prospects for relations between Pakistan and India. The “determination” of the two governments to end the conflicts was recorded.
The process of demarcation of the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir and mutual withdrawal of troops was completed in December 1972. Diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan were restored in May 1976.
However, the terrorist attack in Delhi led to another deterioration in relations, which resulted in renewed shootings on the Line of Control. Tensions also increased due to Pakistan's approval in August 1974 of a new Constitution for Azad Kashmir and the transfer of the regions of Gilgit, Baltistan and Hunza to the administrative subordination of the Pakistani federal authorities in September.
The Indian government entered into an agreement with Sheikh Abdullah in early 1975, according to which he recognized the final accession of Kashmir to India with autonomous state rights guaranteed by Delhi.
But as practice has shown, despite steps towards each other, each side was confident that it was right, and the Simla Agreement was and is being interpreted by India and Pakistan in their own way. Then the usual scenario developed: a restoration and replenishment tour, equipping with more high-tech weapons and a new outbreak of conflict.
Since the mid-1980s, for several years, the armies of both sides have been drawn into almost daily air or artillery duels at the northern tip of the border with China - the ownership of the high-altitude Siachen glacier in the foothills of the Karakoram was disputed.
The reason for the outbreak of hostilities on Siachen was information about the imminent arrival in Pakistan of a Japanese group planning in 1984 to climb Rimo Peak, located in the most important area from the point of view of control over the entire glacier. The Japanese were to be accompanied by a group of Pakistani soldiers, which Delhi did not like very much, and he accused Pakistan of trying to establish control over Siachen. Both India and Pakistan were planning to carry out an operation to capture the glacier by that time.
However, the Indian military was the first to attack. On April 13, 1983, the implementation of Operation Meghdoot began. Pakistani units, which arrived only a month and a half later, found themselves in a number of clashes unable to dislodge the Indians from the positions they had captured. However, they did not allow the Indian units to advance further.
A high degree of tension remained in the Siachen region until the mid-90s, with 1987-1988 being the time of the most violent clashes.
Military clashes near the glacier still occur today. The last major battles involving artillery took place on September 4, 1999 and December 3, 2001.
Since 1990, a new aggravation of the “Muslim issue” began, which was associated with the struggle of the Indian People's Party (BDP) for power. The target for inciting a general protest was a mosque built back in 1528 on the site of a destroyed Hindu temple in honor of the god Rama. OK. Advani, the leader of the BJP, organized mass marches to the “birthplace of Rama”, and he himself rode on a chariot, uttering slogans that later spread throughout India: “When the Hindus are understood, the mullahs flee the country”, “There are two ways for Muslims - to Pakistan or to the cemetery." This sparked unrest throughout India.
On December 6, 1992, the mosque was destroyed, and in response to this, clashes and pogroms of Muslims began in many cities. In total, 2,000 people died at the end of 1992 - beginning of 1993. And in March 1993, a series of explosions carried out by Muslim terrorists occurred in Bombay. In 1996–1997, Muslims staged about a hundred explosions throughout India.
Simultaneously with these events, the situation in the state of Jammu and Kashmir worsened due to the sharp escalation of subversive activities of separatist gangs. As a result of almost continuous battles with terrorists and sabotage, India lost more than 30 thousand military personnel and civilians.
After both states demonstrated the possession of nuclear weapons in May 1998, many analysts on both sides of the border began talking about a possible nuclear war between them. However, at the end of 1998 – beginning of 1999, there was a noticeable “détente” in tensions between India and Pakistan. Visits were exchanged and several high-level meetings took place. The culmination of the “thaw” was the trip to the Pakistani city of Lahore by Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee by bus in connection with the opening of the Delhi-Lahore bus route in February 1999 and the achievement of a package of agreements at the highest level on the mutual reduction of tensions.
The early 2000s were characterized by severe terrorist attacks by Pakistani militants both in the state of Jammu and Kashmir and in certain cities of India and in Delhi.
All efforts to “détente” the situation in early 1999 failed when tensions in Kashmir began to rise in May, unprecedented since 1971. About a thousand militants infiltrated from Pakistan crossed the Line of Control in five sectors. They were covered by Pakistani artillery, which fired across the Line of Control. The fire from Pakistani batteries greatly hampered the advance of columns of Indian vehicles bringing in reinforcements and ammunition.
India, gradually throwing more and more units into battle, by the end of May increased the number of troops to ten brigades of ground forces. Major fighting took place in the Kargil, Dras, Batalik and Turtok sectors and the Mushkoh valley. These events were called the “Kargil Conflict”. And the operation to recapture the captured heights was called “Vijay”.
India was prepared to expand military operations into surrounding areas to ease tensions in the Kargil region, but then refrained from crossing the internationally recognized border in Punjab, where Pakistani troops were concentrated. In general, the actions of the Indian armed forces did not go beyond the Line of Control.
Islamabad denied any involvement in the Kargil clashes, claiming it was only providing moral support to the “freedom fighters.” Soon, direct evidence of Pakistani participation in military clashes was received - several militants who had the appropriate documents were captured by the Indians.
By mid-June, the Indians managed to recapture most of the heights, but the gangs finally left Indian territory only after N. Sharif admitted on July 12 that they were controlled from Pakistan and authorized their withdrawal.
After the Kargil clash, there were periods of reduced tension. But, as subsequent events showed, the potential for hostility accumulated in relations between India and Pakistan did not allow even such a small success to take root: skirmishes between regular units of both countries, which had subsided after the end of the Kargil crisis, resumed on the Line of Control.
Currently, the border between the Indian and Pakistani parts of Kashmir runs along the Line of Control fixed by the parties to the Simla Agreement. However, clashes on religious grounds and in territorial terms still occur. The conflict cannot be called settled. Moreover, it can be argued that the threat of a new war cannot be ruled out. The situation is aggravated by the fact that new players are being introduced into the conflict under the pretext of maintaining peace, in particular the USA, Afghanistan and China.
The current state of the conflict is also different in that India and Pakistan also pursue economic interests related to the significant water and recreational resources of Kashmir.
While the Kashmir problem remains unresolved, mutual mistrust remains between India and Pakistan, and this encourages both sides to strengthen their defense capabilities and develop nuclear programs. A peaceful solution to the Kashmir issue on a bilateral basis can prevent the spread of nuclear weapons throughout the South Asian region.
Analysis of this problem currently indicates that specific proposals that take into account the interests of all three parties have not yet been developed. Both India and Pakistan actually recognize the existing realities - two Kashmirs, a state structure, the presence of a third force, reluctance to recognize each other’s decisions, a peaceful way to solve the problem, the futility of military methods to find consensus.
Literature
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A people inhabiting the territory of Jammu and Kashmir, close to the Punjabis and professing Hinduism.
For example, their admission to the civil service, especially to command posts in the administration and army, was limited. The conversion to Islam of representatives of other religions became punishable by confiscation of property. Particularly humiliating for Muslims was the law according to which they were subject to ten years' imprisonment for slaughtering their own cow (See. Gorokhov S. A. Kashmir / S. A. Gorokhov // Georgia: regional newspaper. – 2003. - No. 13. – P. 13 – 18 ).
“Meghdut” is a modern pronunciation of the Sanskrit “Meghaduta” - “Messenger Cloud”, the title of a poem by the ancient Indian author Kalidasa.
A nationalist party, which is a division of the oldest Indian organization " Union of Voluntary Servants of the Nation."
The conflict between India and Pakistan is a protracted armed confrontation that has actually been going on since 1947, when these countries gained independence. During this time, three major wars and many minor conflicts have already occurred. It has still not been possible to reach an agreement; moreover, at the beginning of the 21st century, relations between these states only worsened.
Reasons
The main reason for the conflict between India and Pakistan is the dispute over the Kashmir region. This is an area located in the northwestern part of the Hindustan Peninsula. Its division is not actually secured by any official agreements; it is a key source of tension between the countries that occupy it.
Currently, Kashmir is divided into several parts. This is the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, which is home to about 10 million people, the self-proclaimed state of Azad Kashmir, which can be translated as “free Kashmir”, about 3.5 million people live in it, it is controlled by Pakistan. There is also the northern territory of Gilgit-Baltistan under Pakistani control, where about 1 million more people live. A small area of Kashmir lies within the borders of China.
As a result of the First Kashmir War, India gained control over two-thirds of the region's territory, the rest went to Pakistan. Because of this region, tension between countries still persists.
First Kashmir War
The conflict between India and Pakistan turned into armed clashes in 1947. After the countries gained independence, the region had to go to Pakistan, since it was dominated by Muslims. But the leadership of Kashmir turned out to be Hindus who decided to join India.
It all started with Pakistan declaring the northern part of the princely state its territory and sending troops there. The Pakistanis quickly defeated the militias. The troops were supposed to move towards the main city of Srinagar, but instead the army stopped in the captured population centers and began looting.
In response, Indian troops took up a perimeter defense around Srinagar, defeating the Muslim militia operating on the outskirts of the city. Having stopped their persecution of the tribal forces, the Hindus tried to unblock the Kashmiri troops in the Poonch region. However, this failed, but the city of Kotli was occupied, but they could not hold it. In November 1947, Muslim militia captured Mipur.
After an attack by tribal troops, Janger was captured. The Indian counter-offensive was called “Operation Vijay.” India made a new attempt to attack Pakistani troops on May 1, 1948. They met fierce resistance from Muslims near Janger, and were joined by irregular Pakistani troops.
India continued to attack, launching Operation Gulab. Their targets were the Gurez and Keran valleys. At the same time, the besieged in Poonch broke the blockade. But still, the Muslims were able to continue the blockade of this strategically important city. As part of Operation Bison, Indian light tanks were deployed to Zoji La. On November 1, they launched a surprise and swift attack, forcing the Muslims to retreat first to Matayan and then to Dras.
Finally, it was possible to unblock Punch. The city was liberated after a siege that lasted a whole year.
The result of the first war
The first stage of the Indo-Pakistani conflict ended with a truce. About 60% of the territory of Kashmir came under the patronage of India, while Pakistan retained control over the remaining areas. This decision was enshrined in a UN resolution. The truce officially came into force on January 1, 1949.
During the first conflict between India and Pakistan, the Indians lost 1,104 people killed and more than three thousand wounded. On the Pakistani side, 4,133 people were killed and more than 4,500 were injured.
Second Kashmir War
The established truce was broken in 1965. The armed conflict was short-lived, but bloody. It lasted from August to September.
It all started with Pakistan's attempt to stage an uprising in the Indian part of Kashmir. Back in the spring of 1965, a border conflict occurred. Who provoked it remains unknown. After several armed clashes, combat units were brought to full readiness. The conflict was prevented from flaring up by Great Britain, which achieved the conclusion of an agreement on As a result, Pakistan received a territory of 900 square kilometers, although it initially claimed a larger area.
These events convinced the Pakistani leadership of the significant superiority of their army. It soon tried to resolve the conflict by force. The intelligence services of the Muslim state sent saboteurs whose goal was to start a war in August 1965. The operation was codenamed "Gibraltar". The Indians became aware of the sabotage, and the troops destroyed the camp in which the militants were trained.
The Indian onslaught was so powerful that the largest city in the Pakistani part of Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, was soon under threat. On September 1, Pakistan launched a counter-offensive, and from that moment open war began. Just five days later, the Indian army invaded Pakistan, striking the major city of Lahore.
After this, both sides carried out offensives with varying degrees of success. The Indian Air Force carried out regular strikes in East Pakistan. On September 23, the war ended under UN pressure.
Consequences
With the participation of the USSR, the Tashkent Declaration on a ceasefire was signed. In both countries, state propaganda reported a landslide victory. In reality it was actually a draw. The Pakistani and Indian air forces suffered significant losses, although there is no reliable information.
During the fighting, about 3,000 Indians and 3,800 Pakistanis were killed. NATO countries have imposed an arms embargo on these countries. As a result, Pakistan began to cooperate with China, and India was forced to establish close ties with the USSR.
Bangladesh War of Independence
A new round of the Indo-Pakistani conflict occurred in 1971. This time the reason was Indian intervention in the civil war in the territory
The crisis there had been brewing for a long time, residents of the eastern part of the country constantly felt like second-class citizens, the language spoken in the west was recognized as the state language, after a powerful tropical cyclone, which killed about 500,000 people, the central authorities began to be accused of inaction and ineffective assistance . In the east they demanded the resignation of President Yahya Khan. At the end of 1970, the Freedom League party, which advocated autonomy for East Pakistan, won the parliamentary elections.
According to the constitution, the Freedom League could form a government, but the leaders of West Pakistan were against the appointment of Rahman as prime minister. As a result, the latter announced the beginning of the struggle for the independence of East Pakistan. The army launched an operation to suppress the rebels, Rahman was arrested. After this, his brother read out the text of the declaration of independence on the radio, proclaiming the creation of Bangladesh. The Civil War began.
Indian intervention
At first I moved forward confidently. According to various estimates, from 300,000 to 1,000,000 residents of the eastern part of the country were killed, about 8 million refugees went to India.
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi supported the independence of Bangladesh, and thus began a new round in the history of the conflict between India and Pakistan. The Indians began to provide support to guerrilla forces and also carried out successful military operations while retreating across the border. On November 21, the Indian Air Force carried out strikes on targets in Pakistan. Regular troops were deployed. After air raids on Indian bases, Gandhi officially declared the start of war.
On all fronts, the Indians were superior.
Bangladesh gains independence
As a result of the intervention of the Indian Army, Bangladesh gained independence. After the defeat in the war, Yahya Khan retired.
Relations between the countries normalized after the signing of the Simla Agreement in 1972. This was the largest conflict between these two countries. Pakistan lost 7982 people killed, Indians - 1047 people.
Current state
For Pakistan and India, Kashmir still remains a stumbling block. Since then, there have been two armed border conflicts (in 1984 and 1999), which were not widespread.
In the 21st century, relations between India and Pakistan became strained due to the fact that both states received nuclear weapons from their patrons or themselves developed nuclear weapons.
Today, the United States and China are supplying weapons to Pakistan, and Russia to India. It is interesting that Pakistan is interested in military cooperation with the Russian Federation, and America is trying to take over contracts for the supply of weapons to India.
Pakistani-Indian armed conflicts of 1947-1949, 1965, 1971, clashes between Pakistani and Indian troops, caused by tensions in Pakistani-Indian relations due to problems that arose during the division of the former British colony of India into two states - India and Pakistan. These relations were complicated by the subsequent intervention of imperialist countries and the chauvinistic policies of reactionary circles in both states.
1) Arose in April due to the disputed territory - the northern part of the Rann of Kutch desert, where the border between India and Pakistan was not demarcated. Fighting broke out between Pakistani units. and ind. armies. On June 30, a ceasefire agreement was signed. 19 Feb. 1969 decision of the international. A tribunal under the auspices of the UN divided the disputed territory between India and Pakistan. On July 4, 1969, India and Pakistan agreed to this decision;
2) On August 5, units of specially trained armed men invaded the Kashmir Valley from the Pakistani part of Kashmir. By mid-August, fighting between Indian and Pakistani troops took place virtually along the entire ceasefire line. With the assistance of the UN Security Council, the fire ceased on September 23. At the initiative of the Soviet government, on January 4-10, 1966, a meeting between the President of Pakistan and the Prime Minister of India took place in Tashkent, at which an agreement was reached on the withdrawal of the armed forces of the parties to the positions they occupied before August 5, 1965.
Conflict 1971 arose in connection with the unfolding struggle of the people of East Pakistan for independence. The crisis in Pakistan and the influx of several million refugees into India from East Pakistan led to a deterioration in Indo-Pakistani relations. On November 21, hostilities began between India and Pakistan in East Pakistan. On December 3, the Pakistani army opened military operations on India's western borders. In East Pakistan, Indian troops, with the assistance of local guerrillas - the Muktibahini - reached Dhaka by mid-December. On December 16, Pakistani troops operating in East Pakistan surrendered. The next day, hostilities on the western front also ceased. East Pakistan achieved independence.
Yu. V. Gankovsky
Materials from the Soviet Military Encyclopedia in volume 8, volume 6 were used.
A nuclear war could break out not only because of irreconcilable differences between the leading nuclear powers of the world, but also because of the military-political confrontation between the so-called countries. third world. For example, India and Pakistan. In the latter case, the danger is posed by a dispute between the two capitals over the status of Kashmir. According to the expert community, the world is hostage to this conflict, which at any moment could escalate into a full-scale war using nuclear weapons.
Experts recognize that the model of the Indo-Pakistani confrontation over Kashmir, which is based on a “gift” from the colonial past of these two countries, is an example of an intractable political conflict with unpredictable consequences for all humanity. This conflict intricately intertwined a whole bunch of problems that can hardly be observed anywhere else in the world, even in our crazy age. First of all, it should be noted that the conflict immediately began with an armed clash between two states, which at that time had barely managed to gain independence. That is, it was originally involved in blood.
Let's multiply this by the nuclear status of the two countries, the interests of, again, nuclear China, which seeks to turn Asia into a huge market for Chinese products, and the desire of the parties to gain control over fresh water resources.
The bouquet also includes the problem of human rights violations, the problem of radicalization of society with outbreaks of mass unrest, separatism, the spread of ideas of radical Islamism and, of course, the so-called. "Islamic" terrorism. Let's add here the extremely tense situation in the immediate environment of two warring states: this motley field of Afghanistan, China with its Tibetan problem and tension in historical East Turkestan, Iran gaining power...
Background to the conflict
As noted above, the conflict over Kashmir is a legacy of the era of British colonial rule in the lands of present-day India and Pakistan. The two states separated in 1947. Before this, what is now commonly called British India, from an administrative point of view, was divided into British India proper and dependent Indian principalities, of which there were about six hundred (!).
Actually, the division into India and Pakistan was carried out by decision of the colonial administration. The principle of religious affiliation of the population was taken as the basis for the division. Indian princes were given the right to make their own choice in favor of the future of Pakistan or India. Not all princes made up their minds right away. Some of them wanted to maintain their much-desired independence from Britain.
One of these princes was the ruler of the province of Jammu and Kashmir - Maharaja Hari Singh (1895-1961). The Maharaja was a Hindu, and the bulk of his subjects were Muslims. It should also be noted that Hari Singh had a sharply negative attitude towards the anti-colonial movement and opposed it both on a pan-Indian scale and within his principality.
For example, he had a personal dislike for the main ideologist of the Hindu national liberation struggle, Jawaharlal Nehru (1889-1964), who also had Kashmiri origin. The Maharaja treated other leaders of the Indian National Congress no better. However, the post-war history of the twentieth century took its course and moved colonial India towards independence. Therefore, during the partition of British India, which began in 1947, Hari Singh found himself in a difficult situation.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's independence was declared on August 14, 1947. A day later, the same thing was done in India. Independent India was not attractive to the Maharaja. But the prospect of being absorbed by Muslim Pakistan also did not please him. As a result, Hari Singh chose the third path and declared the independence of Kashmir. However, in the summer of 1947, interreligious clashes began in the principality, and the ruler lost control of the situation.
The situation was aggravated by the rise of a wave of anti-monarchy protests calling for the expulsion of the Maharaja from Kashmir. The emergence of a “Free Kashmir” government was announced. This gave Pakistan an excuse to send troops into the territory of the princely state, under the pretext of supporting the self-proclaimed government. In response, on October 26, 1947, Hari Singh was forced to hastily sign a document on the accession of his princely state to India.
As a result of this decision, the first Indo-Pakistani massacre broke out, which ended more favorably for India. About two-thirds of the former principality went to her. These territories received the status of an Indian state with a special legal status. Pakistan was forced to be satisfied with the remaining part of the maharaja's possessions and created a province under the loud name Free Kashmir (Azad Kashmir) on the part of Kashmir that he captured.
Thus, on the one hand, hitherto uncoordinated and therefore unsteady borders were established between the two countries, and on the other hand, a constantly smoldering hot spot was created on the political map of the world, which has kept the world in suspense for the past seventy years.
(to be continued)
Aidar Khairutdinov
Islamabad and Delhi are ready to carry out a nuclear massacre at any moment. We continue to analyze modern conflict situations in the world that can lead to large-scale wars. Today we will talk about more than 60 years of Indo-Pakistani confrontation, which in the 21st century was aggravated by the fact that both states have developed (or received from their patrons) nuclear weapons and are actively increasing their military power.
A threat to everyone
The Indo-Pakistani military conflict occupies, perhaps, the most ominous place in the list of modern threats to humanity. According to Russian Foreign Ministry official Alexander Shilin, “the confrontation between these two states became particularly explosive when both India and Pakistan, having conducted a series of nuclear tests, demonstrated their ability to create nuclear weapons. Thus, the South Asian military confrontation became the second hotbed of nuclear deterrence in world history (after the Cold War between the USSR and the USA).”
This is compounded by the fact that neither India nor Pakistan have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and continue to refrain from joining it. They consider this treaty discriminatory, that is, it secures the right to possess nuclear weapons to a small group of “privileged” countries and cuts off all other states from the right to ensure their own security by all available means. Accurate data on the nuclear capabilities of the armed forces of India and Pakistan are not published in the open press.
According to some estimates, both states have set a goal (and perhaps have already achieved it) to increase the number of nuclear weapons from 80 to 200 on each side. If they are used, this is enough for an environmental disaster to cast doubt on the survival of all humanity. The causes of the conflict and the ferocity with which it is developing indicate that such a threat is very real.
History of the conflict
As you know, India and Pakistan were part of the British colony of India until 1947. In the 17th century, Great Britain took the feudal principalities that existed here “under its wing” with fire and sword. They were inhabited by numerous nationalities, which could be roughly divided into Hindus themselves - the indigenous inhabitants of the country and Muslims - the descendants of the Persians who conquered India in the 12th-13th centuries. All these peoples lived relatively peacefully with each other.
However, Hindus were concentrated mainly in what is now India and Muslims were concentrated in what is now Pakistan. In the lands that now belong to Bangladesh, the population was mixed. A significant part of it consisted of Bengals - Hindus professing Islam.
Britain brought turmoil into the relatively peaceful life of the tribes. Following the old and proven principle of “divide and rule,” the British pursued a policy of dividing the population along religious lines. Nevertheless, the constantly ongoing national liberation struggle here led to the formation of independent states after the Second World War. Northwestern Punjab, Sindh, North-Western Province, and Balochistan were ceded to Pakistan. This was indisputable, since these lands were inhabited by Muslims.
A separate region became part of the previously divided Bengal - East Bengal or East Pakistan. This enclave could communicate with the rest of Pakistan only through Indian territory or by sea, but this required traveling more than three thousand miles. This division has already created a source of tension between the two countries, but the main problem is the situation with the princely states of Jammu and Kashmir.
In the Kashmir Valley, 9 out of ten people professed Islam. At the same time, historically it turned out that the entire ruling elite consisted of Hindus, who naturally wanted to incorporate the principality into India. Naturally, Muslims did not agree with this prospect. Spontaneous militia groups began to be created in Kashmir, and groups of armed Pashtuns began to infiltrate from the territory of Pakistan. On October 25, they entered the capital of the princely state, Srinagar. Two days later, Indian troops retook Srinagar and drove the rebels away from the city. The Pakistani government also sent regular troops into the battle. At the same time, repressions against people of other faiths took place in both countries. Thus began the first Indo-Pakistani war.
Artillery was widely used in the bloody battles, and armored units and aviation took part. By the summer of 1948, the Pakistani army occupied the northern part of Kashmir. On August 13, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for a ceasefire by both sides, but it was not until July 27, 1949 that Pakistan and India signed an armistice. Kashmir was divided into two parts. For this, both sides paid a terrible price - more than a million killed and 17 million refugees.
On May 17, 1965, the 1949 truce was violated, as many historians believe, by India: a battalion of Indian infantry crossed the ceasefire line in Kashmir and fought to take several Pakistani border posts. On September 1, regular units of the Pakistani and Indian armies in Kashmir entered into combat contact. The Pakistani Air Force began to strike major cities and industrial centers in India. Both countries actively carried out airborne troops.
It is unknown how all this would have ended if not for the strong diplomatic pressure that forced Delhi to end the war. The Soviet Union, India's long-standing and traditional ally, was irritated by Delhi's military adventure. The Kremlin, not without reason, feared that China might enter the war on the side of its ally Pakistan. If this happened, the US would support India; then the USSR would have been relegated to the background, and its influence in the region would have been undermined.
At the request of Alexei Kosygin, then Egyptian President Nasser personally flew to Delhi and criticized the Indian government for violating the ceasefire agreement. On September 17, the Soviet government invited both sides to meet in Tashkent and resolve the conflict peacefully. On January 4, 1966, Indo-Pakistani negotiations began in the Uzbek capital. After much debate, on January 10, it was decided to withdraw troops to the pre-war line and restore the status quo.
Neither India nor Pakistan were happy with the “pacification”: each side considered its victory stolen. Indian generals stated that if the USSR had not intervened, they would have been sitting in Islamabad for a long time. And their Pakistani colleagues argued that if they had another week, they would have blocked the Indians in southern Kashmir and made a tank attack on Delhi. Soon both of them again had the opportunity to measure their strength.
It began with the fact that on November 12, 1970, a typhoon swept over Bengal, claiming about three hundred thousand lives. The colossal destruction further deteriorated the living standards of the Bengalis. They blamed the Pakistani authorities for their plight and demanded autonomy. Islamabad sent troops there instead of helping. It was not a war that began, but a massacre: the first Bengalis who came across were crushed by tanks, grabbed in the streets and taken to a lake in the vicinity of Chittagong, where tens of thousands of people were shot with machine guns, and their bodies were drowned in the lake. Now this lake is called the Lake of the Risen. Mass emigration to India began, where about 10 million people ended up. India began to provide military assistance to rebel groups. This eventually led to another India-Pakistan war.
The main theater of hostilities was Bengal, where the navies of both sides played a crucial role in conducting operations: after all, this Pakistani enclave could only be supplied by sea. Considering the overwhelming power of the Indian Navy - an aircraft carrier, 2 cruisers, 17 destroyers and frigates, 4 submarines, while the Pakistani fleet included a cruiser, 7 destroyers and frigates and 4 submarines - the outcome of events was a foregone conclusion. The most important result of the war was the loss of Pakistan's enclave: East Pakistan became the independent state of Bangladesh.
The decades following this war were rich in new conflicts. It was especially acute at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009, when the Indian city of Mumbai was attacked by terrorists. At the same time, Pakistan refused to extradite to India those suspected of involvement in this action.
Today, India and Pakistan continue to teeter on the brink of open war, and Indian authorities have declared that the fourth Indo-Pakistani war should be the last.
Silence before the explosion?
First Vice-President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov, in a conversation with a SP correspondent, commented on the situation in modern relations between India and Pakistan:
In my opinion, at the moment the Indo-Pakistani military conflict is at the lowest point of a conditional sine wave. The leadership of Pakistan today is solving the difficult task of resisting pressure from Islamic fundamentalists, who find support in the depths of Pakistani society. In this regard, the conflict with India faded into the background.
But the confrontation between Islam and the Pakistani authorities is very typical of the current world situation. The Pakistani government is pro-American to the core. And the Islamists who are fighting against the Americans in Afghanistan and striking their proxies in Pakistan represent the other side - objectively, so to speak, anti-imperialist.
As for India, it has no time for Pakistan now either. She sees where the world is heading and is seriously busy rearming her army. Including modern Russian military equipment, which, by the way, almost never reaches our troops.
Who is she arming herself against?
It is clear that the United States may sooner or later instigate a war with Pakistan. The long-standing conflict is fertile ground for this. In addition, the current NATO war in Afghanistan may provoke the next round of Indo-Pakistani military confrontation.
The fact is that while it is going on, the United States has supplied Afghanistan (and therefore, indirectly, the Pakistani Taliban) with a huge amount of ground weapons, the return of which back to the United States is an economically unprofitable operation. This weapon is destined to be used, and it will fire. The Indian leadership understands this. And he is preparing for such a course of events. But the current rearmament of the Indian army, in my opinion, also has a more global goal.
What are you talking about?
I have already drawn attention more than once to the fact that the world with catastrophic acceleration is rushing towards the beginning of the “hot” period of the next world war. This is due to the fact that the global economic crisis is not over, and it can only be resolved by building a new world order. And there has never been a case in history where a new world order was built without bloodshed. Events in North Africa and other countries are a prologue, the first sounds of the coming world war. The Americans are at the head of the new redivision of the world.
Today we are witnessing an almost fully formed military coalition of US satellites (Europe plus Canada). But the coalition opposing it is still just being formed. In my opinion, it has two components. The first is the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). The second component is the countries of the Arab world. They are just beginning to realize the need to create a unified defense space. But the processes are moving quickly.
The Indian leadership is perhaps responding most adequately to ominous changes in the world. It seems to me that it soberly looks into the more or less distant future, when the formed anti-American coalition will still have to face the main enemy. In India, there is a real reform of the army, not like ours.
Disappointing estimates
Alexander Shilov, an employee of one of the departments of the Russian Foreign Ministry, has a slightly different opinion:
It is clear that India's nuclear deterrence is directed primarily against those states that it considers to be potential adversaries. First of all, this is Pakistan, which, like India, is taking measures to form strategic nuclear forces. But the potential threat from China has been a major factor influencing India's military planning for many years.
Suffice it to recall that the Indian nuclear military program itself, the beginning of which dates back to the mid-60s, was mainly a response to the emergence of nuclear weapons in the PRC (1964), especially since China inflicted a heavy defeat on India in the border war in 1962 . To contain Pakistan, India appears to need only a few dozen warheads. According to Indian experts, the minimum in this case would be a potential that would ensure the survival of 25-30 ammunition carriers after the first surprise nuclear strike from Pakistan.
Considering the size of India's territory and the ability to significantly disperse nuclear attack weapons, it can be assumed that a strike from Pakistan, even the most massive one, will not be able to disable the majority of Indian strategic nuclear forces. An Indian retaliatory strike using at least 15-20 nuclear warheads will undoubtedly lead to irreparable damage up to and including the complete collapse of the Pakistani economy, especially since the range of Indian aviation and the ballistic missiles being developed by Delhi allows them to hit virtually any object in Pakistan.
Therefore, if we keep in mind only Pakistan, an arsenal of 70-80 ammunition may apparently be more than enough. To be fair, it should be noted that the Indian economy will hardly be able to withstand a nuclear strike using at least 20-30 charges from the same Pakistan.
However, if we proceed simultaneously from the principle of causing unacceptable damage and not using nuclear weapons first, then in the case of China it will be necessary to have an arsenal at least comparable to the Chinese one, and Beijing currently has 410 charges, of which no more than 40 are on intercontinental ballistic missiles. It is clear. that if we count on a first strike from China, then Beijing is able to disable a very significant part of India’s nuclear attack weapons. Thus, their total number should be approximately comparable to the Chinese arsenal and reach several hundred in order to ensure the required survival rate.
As for Pakistan, the leadership of this country constantly makes it clear that the threshold for the possible use of nuclear weapons by Islamabad may be very low. At the same time (unlike India), Islamabad apparently intends to proceed from the possibility of using its nuclear weapons first.
Thus, according to the Pakistani analyst Lieutenant General S. Lodi, “in the event of a dangerous situation when an Indian offensive using conventional means threatens to break through our defenses, or has already made a breakthrough that cannot be eliminated by conventional measures at our disposal, the government will have no choice but to use our nuclear weapons to stabilize the situation.”
In addition, according to a number of statements by the Pakistanis, as a countermeasure in the event of a massive offensive by Indian ground forces, nuclear landmines could be used to mine the border zone with India.
