Futurology(from lat. Futurum- future and Greek Λόγος - teaching) - forecasting the future, including by extrapolating existing technological, economic or social trends or attempting to predict future trends.
THE FUTURE OF CIVILIZATIONS - a futurological long-term forecast for the development of intelligent life. For now we can only look at the example of one single civilization known to us - our own. But what will happen to us all in 100, 1000 or a million years? What do we know about the future of a super-advanced civilization? Reliably - nothing! In principle, we cannot know what will be interesting and what tasks people of the distant future will set for themselves. We should take this into account before we remember all the already existing futurological forecasts, otherwise we risk becoming like those who wrote ridiculous forecasts about life in the twentieth century just a hundred or two hundred years ago, at the same time attributing to us, today, all our own character traits and habits . In turn, the forecasts of our futurologists are guilty of the same thing. To be completely precise, our scientists first thought about the problems of the ultra-distant future of humanity only after they began a serious search for traces of other civilizations as part of the international SETI program. It was then that the question was posed: what happens to a civilization when it becomes “adult” by cosmic standards? And although we did not have the slightest idea about what kind of civilizations other star systems were inhabited (or whether they were inhabited at all), scientists unwittingly equated them with our own civilization “of the third millennium.” So it turned out that the questions “What are they like?”, “What will we be like?” and “What would we like to become?” our official science gives almost the same answers. What can you do - there is not enough factual material for generalizations, and if you don’t count UFOs, then Humanity is the only one known to us among all civilizations. Let's ask the question differently: How would we like to see ourselves in the third millennium? According to science fiction films and stories, it turns out that our descendants, as settlers of the Wild West, are simply obliged to pour into the vast expanses of the Universe. Of course, people must go out into the intergalactic spaces, but not as tribes of nomads or locust-like herds of barbarians. Modern humanistic scientists unanimously assert that we will carry only peace and goodness into space. But who knows, perhaps by that time many star systems will already be inhabited by representatives of other civilizations? What should we do if they don’t like our desire for expansion (see “Stellar Expansion”)? Of course, in science fiction stories, “good” earthlings always defeat “non-humanoid aliens.” But are we sure that the aliens will not turn out to be an older and militarily stronger civilization? And won't we be wrong in such conflicts? Where to look for arbitrators? Futurologists modestly avoid this issue, as if taking it for granted that everyone will be waiting for us everywhere only with open arms (paws, claws, limbs). Although the logic of all historical events on our planet seems to indicate the opposite. Will we have to participate in global star wars and great crusades to liberate the Milky Way? Humanists and pacifists in this case have every chance of finding confirmation of their ideals. Indeed, the same logic dictates that if there were at least a few civilizations older than ours in the Universe (and probability theory states this), then their representatives would have visited Earth many times (fast interstellar flights over time and for we will no longer be a problem). But if different civilizations visit Earth (in UFOs, of course?), then where is the battle for the planet and the war for spheres of influence?! If it is true that humanism reigns in space, then we will have to be humane too. In any case, when we enter the vastness of the Universe (certainly not the first), we will simply be forced to reckon with the previous traditions of non-interference. In any case, for the first time, until our strength gets stronger... Well, when our weight in the intergalactic arena increases, we can hope that our bloody habits and ancient instincts, as well as the scripts of Hollywood's Star Wars, will be forgotten by that time. .. Let’s try to list all possible options for the development of Humanity starting from the foreseeable future (i.e. from the beginning of the 21st century), considering that we have already begun our expansion into the Universe: 1. PESSIMISTIC option with a miraculous “end of the world” as a result of cosmic, climatic , or another catastrophe associated, for example, with the radiation of a supernova or with the fall of an asteroid, is unlikely, because after the colonization of other planets (there is hope that we will have time to carry it out), civilization automatically insures itself against complete extinction. True, the silence of space in the radio range and the suspicion that all civilizations (and us too!) do not live to “maturity” forced some astronomers to accept a new hypothesis: 2. The SELF-DESTRUCTION scenario, in addition to pure science fiction writers, was described by I. Shklovsky and N. Kardashev, according to them According to calculations, the probability that civilization, as a result of its technogenic development, will reach a self-destructive dead end is approximately 10%. During the Cold War, nuclear war was considered the most likely such a dead end, followed by ecology, overpopulation, the emergence of man-made viruses, chemical and radiation disasters. In the future, regional conflicts and even seemingly harmless physical experiments may become dangerous for the entire civilization... 3. The scenario of the “CATS DISCUSSION” implies that in our development we will not only see planets inhabited by highly developed civilizations, but we will also discover that There are simply no free planets left. We will have to be content with only our native Earth and the role of a star backwater; naturally, the risk of self-destruction in this case will increase many times over, and colonies on the Moon and in outer space potentially cannot ensure the proper revival of the human race in the event of a global catastrophe on Earth. Considering that in the future Humanity will be able to settle and spread not only in the space of our 3-dimensional world, but also in other dimensions of Space-Time, one can consider the option simply unworthy of mention when there is absolutely nowhere for us to go in the endless expanses of Universes and Times. The question needs to be posed like this: do we have enough desire and means to master what older civilizations neglected? 4. ALIENATION Scenario: if the entire Universe has long been divided into spheres of influence between old super-civilizations, then we risk being left alone with our desires and ambitions. Our astro-neighbors need us no more than, say, a clan of super-millionaires - a poor, ill-mannered relative, naively waiting for reciprocal loud declarations of love and sympathy. But these are still “flowers”. It will be worse if the “clan” unexpectedly still likes the bad manners and belligerence characteristic of us in a poor relative... 5. The role of a “PAWN IN SOMEONE ELSE’S GAME” is disgusting if we do not know the true goals of this game. I don’t really want to be in the role of the Papuans of Oceania, who during the 2nd World War, having replaced the spear and bow with an automatic rifle, with great pleasure went to fight both in the Japanese army and in the US army, seeing absolutely no difference for themselves. Perhaps all young civilizations go through the role of “Papuans-mercenaries” to some extent, and this development scenario can be considered as the most likely, especially since...if you believe the numerous stories of contactees, then UFO pilots are already using us with might and main for their own unknown purposes. Of course, we would also like to play a significant role in the interstellar arena, but in fact all of the above and below options for the development of Humanity could be reduced to just one question: how independent will we be in choosing politics in the future? At the same time, without implying that independence is preferable. In practice, it always turns out the other way around: “street children” either resign themselves to social rules and become respected citizens, or become outcasts from society with all the ensuing consequences. 6. The STAR WARS option with an independently pursued mature military policy is possible in all scenarios. The principles of humanity say that bloody policies should be abandoned, but experience suggests that one must be prepared for aggression at any moment. The same experience, unfortunately, tells us that very often, in the absence of external enemies, internal enemies are quickly found. No one can guarantee that, having not discovered enemies in other galaxies, independent colonies will not start hostility among themselves. It follows that we always need to be prepared for the news that we are the only civilization... 7. The LONELINESS scenario is very unlikely. According to Kardashev’s estimates, the chance that there is no one else in the incredibly large Universe except us is estimated at only zero percent. From the fact that this illogical case is very often found in science fiction, we can conclude that subconsciously people strive for leadership even at the interstellar level. True, it is possible that without competition in space, the United Humanity will quickly cool down in the search for new endless colonies and then... 8. The “STAGNATION” option is possible in all scenarios. The example of the eternal existence of civilizations in a state of complete indifference to everything is taken seriously by many astronomers as an explanation for the radio silence of the cosmos, but practice shows that stagnation in a potentially healthy society does not last long, is it then worth considering this episode seriously? 9. The “GREAT RING” scenario is perhaps the most optimistic of imaginable options, in which tens and hundreds of different civilizations, mature and barely out on interstellar routes, begin to “make family friends.” The humane and tolerant attitude of representatives of different galaxies towards each other is described in many science fiction works, so there is no need to go into too much detail, especially since this option also satisfies scientists working on the SETI program. Even the probabilities of a certain hypothetical civilization similar to ours entering into an intragalactic association (approximately 10%), into an intergalactic association (20%) and even into a union of civilizations, which occupies a noticeable part (about 1 - 10 billion light years) of the size of visible part of the Metagalaxy (already more than 60%)! It is impossible not to mention that in the case of the existence of other civilizations, the expansion of any of them with the help of global panspermia could have the most catastrophic consequences for already inhabited planets. 10. The “HIERARCHICAL LADDER” scenario is essentially just a variant of the previous scenario, but it is an even more probable variant (again, based on our logic!). Different civilizations, in principle, should be different in their development. But how to classify them? Usually, when mentioning the degree of development of society, they refer to the SETI classification, in which hypothetical civilizations are divided by the degree of energy availability: civilizations can in total consume as much electricity as the amount of light falling on the surface of their home planet; a more developed civilization spends almost all the energy of its native star for its needs; and subsequently - all the energy of the native galaxy. Full use of the energy falling on the planet was supposed to be achieved with the help of orbital solar panels and energy converters, and full use of the entire star - with the help of a solid sphere built around the star (the author of this idea is F. Dyson) or a shell the size of several astronomical units. It is not yet clear from a technical point of view how to detain and use all the light emanating from the galaxy, and whether, from a legal point of view, it is possible to intercept this energy if, in addition to our civilization, there is someone else in the galaxy... Although in scientific works the topic of hierarchies It is not found anywhere in its pure form in space, however, many astronomers have written about it in one way or another between the lines. Indeed, no one particularly objects to the fact that our civilization, after the beginning of the era of astronomy and contact with neighbors, will experience something like a qualitative leap in development, but who can guarantee that this leap will be the last in our history!? Let us remember that K. Tsiolkovsky and other scientists wrote that in billions of years (or earlier?) people will turn into incorporeal ethereal beings; modern observations of certain types of UFOs and research conducted by Academician V. Kaznacheev both directly and indirectly confirm the existence of such a field form of life. It may happen that after millions of years, as a result of natural (or unnatural) evolution, a person will lose not only his usual appearance, but also the previous properties of the physical organism. Even if people have already gotten used to the reality of frequent space flights and flights in Time, after this a new break in habits and characters, a change in priorities, goals, space friends, etc. is inevitable. The transition to each new qualitative level for humanity will mean, first of all, a new discovery of the Universe. How many times will there be qualitative leaps in the development of Humanity, and what will a person in the field and post-field forms of life at least approximately look like - this is now impossible to even imagine! (Another option - to imagine - you need to look again at some types of UFOs). Billions of years will pass, in an ideal case, post-field Humanity will completely master Space-Time, and if for some reason the triumphal march of people is not interrupted, then someday our descendants will reach such heights that in our minds they will simply become Gods.. .
Analysts did not report anything positive. In their opinion, the crisis will not end quickly. Therefore, in 2009, established world powers will have a chance to actively shape the post-crisis world. As experts suggest, the world after the economic apocalypse and subsequent catharsis (purification) expects four possible scenarios: terrifying, unwanted, neutral or positive, in which the world expects a renaissance or revival. After the world gets out of the crisis, there will be a new period of structural growth, which will cause a clash of interests in the financial sector, lead to redistribution and the emergence of new winners and losers in it, the Interfax agency translates some of the theses of the WEF study. So how do analysts think the world structure will change by 2020?
The computer of the future, according to Gates, will turn from a large desktop machine into a small terminal located inside the table, which can understand commands given by the user and recognize objects lying on the table.
Stated position alexsword :
My point of view is that the crisis in the world has not yet really begun; the pathetic speculative panics and unemployment of tens of millions are a crisis, compared to what is coming, I don’t even consider it. There are still no people dying of hunger or freezing to death in the G7 countries, there are no uprisings and their suppression yet. There was not a single putsch, not a single coup, not a single act of genocide.
In short, at the moment there are funny children's games going on, only young ladies and overly impressionable people call them a crisis. Really adult games are ahead. In Russia, if everything is done correctly, there will be no crisis in this form and with proper management. This has been discussed many times. Personally, I personally have no interest in rubbing it all the time. Therefore, having written several notes on Russia, see, for example, here:
- “Forecast for Russia. Revival"
- "201x - models of the future"
Q What will happen to Russia in the 21st century? Futurists' forecasts
It's always interesting what will happen in the future. In 20, 50, 100 years. There is a special science called futurology, which deals with predicting the future. The forecasts of futurologists do not always come true, but, nevertheless, their opinion always arouses interest. This post contains several popular futurological cases from Western and domestic futurologists. To be honest, many of the predictions at the moment look too fantastic. But who knows, who knows...
2035 Russia will lose Siberia
Unfortunately, this forecast occurs quite often. And it is by no means connected with Chinese aggression. No, the scenario is quite peaceful, it's all about simple mathematics. The vast territories of Siberia and the Far East are occupied by only about 25 million Russians. Demographic problems are obvious and continue to grow. At the same time, the migration of Chinese (legal and illegal) occurs at a consistently high level. It is likely that the time will come when the number of ethnic Chinese in Siberia and the Far East will exceed a critical figure. Of course, they will defend their political rights, be elected to local governments, and so on. As a result, this territory will be more dependent on China than on Russia. I would really like to avoid this scenario, but this requires drastic measures for the socio-economic development of Siberia and the Far East.
2040. Russia will become an agricultural superpower
There is also an interesting forecast. Due to the fact that the world's population is growing at an extremely fast pace and there is not enough food, agriculture will become especially valuable. In Russia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries, agriculture is not in such decline as in most other countries. This means that in the future the role of Russia, with its vast territory and agricultural capabilities, will only grow. In addition, water is likely to become humanity's most valuable resource by 2040. And Russia is the second country in the world in terms of water reserves.
2050 Russia vs Türkiye
The huge number of wars between Russia and Turkey, as futurologists predict, will find a new response in the 21st century. By 2050, the populations of these countries should be equal, and Turkey's revanchist sentiments may come to the surface. In principle, there has already been a conflict between our countries in the 21st century. But futurologists predict more serious clashes. And not only futurologists, but also, for example, elders. Here is one of the prophecies of the Athonite elder Venerable Paisius the Holy Mountain: “It will disintegrate, and the states playing a decisive role in world politics will give Constantinople to us. They will do this not because they love us, but because God will arrange everything so that they It will be beneficial for Constantinople to be Greek. The spiritual laws will take effect. The Turks will have to pay for what they have done, they will perish, because they occupied this land without God’s blessing. Their end is near.”
2055 Russia in space travel
In one of my previous posts, I wrote about Russia’s very dismal prospects in space. However, professional futurologists believe that our country will be able to become one of the leaders in space tourism by the middle of the century. Russia today, although it does not claim leadership in space, is actively involved in the development of tourism space programs in partnership with Japan, France and Germany.
2060 Tornadoes
Quite an important and unusual forecast. According to scientists, seasonal tornadoes in Russia in 50 years will become commonplace, and their number can be counted in the hundreds. Global warming is to blame.
2070 Robot conscripts
By this year, Russia must completely renew its army. Almost all types of troops will be robotized. The biggest change can be expected in the Air Force: military aircraft will become fully autonomous from the moment they take off until the moment they land. Aircraft (as well as ground equipment) will be controlled by artificial intelligence.
2090 Total atheism
According to futurologists, by the end of the century the number of atheists in Russia will be 80%. Moreover, this will affect not only the Orthodox population, but people representing the Islamic tradition. The reason for such a sharp loss of faith, according to scientists, will be progress in the field of biotechnology and medicine, which will make it possible to defeat many diseases and prolong life.
What do you think about these forecasts?
It's always interesting what will happen in the future. In 20, 50, 100 years. There is a special science called futurology, which deals with predicting the future. The forecasts of futurologists do not always come true, but, nevertheless, their opinion always arouses interest. This post contains several popular futurological cases from Western and domestic futurologists. To be honest, many of the predictions at the moment look too fantastic. But who knows, who knows...
2035 Russia will lose Siberia
Unfortunately, this forecast occurs quite often. And it is by no means connected with Chinese aggression. No, the scenario is quite peaceful, it's all about simple mathematics. The vast territories of Siberia and the Far East are occupied by only about 25 million Russians. Demographic problems are obvious and continue to grow. At the same time, the migration of Chinese (legal and illegal) occurs at a consistently high level. It is likely that the time will come when the number of ethnic Chinese in Siberia and the Far East will exceed a critical figure. Of course, they will defend their political rights, be elected to local governments, and so on. As a result, this territory will be more dependent on China than on Russia. I would really like to avoid this scenario, but this requires drastic measures for the socio-economic development of Siberia and the Far East. 
2040. Russia will become an agricultural superpower
There is also an interesting forecast. Due to the fact that the world's population is growing at an extremely fast pace and there is not enough food, agriculture will become especially valuable. In Russia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries, agriculture is not in such decline as in most other countries. This means that in the future the role of Russia, with its vast territory and agricultural capabilities, will only grow. In addition, water is likely to become humanity's most valuable resource by 2040. And Russia is the second country in the world in terms of water reserves.
2050 Russia vs Türkiye
The huge number of wars between Russia and Turkey, as futurologists predict, will find a new response in the 21st century. By 2050, the populations of these countries should be equal, and Turkey's revanchist sentiments may come to the surface. In principle, there has already been a conflict between our countries in the 21st century. But futurologists predict more serious clashes. And not only futurologists, but also, for example, elders. Here is one of the prophecies of the Athonite elder Venerable Paisius the Holy Mountain: “It will disintegrate, and the states playing a decisive role in world politics will give Constantinople to us. They will do this not because they love us, but because God will arrange everything so that they It will be beneficial for Constantinople to be Greek. The spiritual laws will take effect. The Turks will have to pay for what they have done, they will perish, because they occupied this land without God’s blessing. Their end is near.”
2055 Russia in space travel
Professional futurologists believe that our country will be able to become one of the leaders in space tourism by the middle of the century. Russia today, although it does not claim leadership in space, is actively involved in the development of tourism space programs in partnership with Japan, France and Germany. 
2060 Tornadoes
Quite an important and unusual forecast. According to scientists, seasonal tornadoes in Russia in 50 years will become commonplace, and their number can be counted in the hundreds. Global warming is to blame.
2070 Robot conscripts
By this year, Russia must completely renew its army. Almost all types of troops will be robotized. The biggest change can be expected in the Air Force: military aircraft will become fully autonomous from the moment they take off until the moment they land. Aircraft (as well as ground equipment) will be controlled by artificial intelligence. 
2090 Total atheism
According to futurologists, by the end of the century the number of atheists in Russia will be 80%. Moreover, this will affect not only the Orthodox population, but people representing the Islamic tradition. The reason for such a sharp loss of faith, according to scientists, will be progress in the field of biotechnology and medicine, which will make it possible to defeat many diseases and prolong life.
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If someone sometimes wonders how soon robots will become as common a thing in our homes as a refrigerator, then Ray Kurzweil does not guess, but names the year - 2027. Why is he so sure of this? Ray Kurzweil is an inventor, futurist, author, and Google's CTO in the fields of machine learning and natural language processing. He is known for his scientific technological predictions, some of which have already come true. For example, he predicted the collapse of the USSR, the victory of a computer in a chess game with the best chess player in the world, the emergence of electronic assistants like Siri and Alice, virtual and augmented reality systems.
website decided to group the futurologist’s forecasts for the 21st century: it seems that something grandiose awaits us all. Perhaps scenes from science fiction movies will soon become reality?
Many things are hard to believe these days, but Ray Kurzweil is rarely wrong. In October 2010, he released a report where he analyzed how the predictions described in 3 of his books (1990, 1999 and 2005) came true. Of the 147 forecasts, 115 were completely correct, 12 were generally correct, 17 were partially correct, and only 3 were incorrect. Thus, the futurologist's accuracy level is as much as 86%.
2019
- Humanity will defeat the diseases that kill 95% of people in developed countries.
- The processes underlying aging will be significantly slowed down and reversed.
2020
- Computers will continue to shrink and begin to lose their usual shape, for example, they will begin to be sewn into clothes.
- A new World Government will appear over all of humanity.
2025
- Military drones and vehicles will be 100% computer controlled.
- The debut of promising nanotechnology that will help fully understand the workings of the human brain.
2027
- Accurate computer simulations of all parts of the human brain will become possible.
- By the end of the 10th anniversary, artificial intelligence comparable to human intelligence will be created.
2029
- Artificial intelligence will pass the Turing test, which will confirm that it has the ability to think like a person.
- By the end of the 10th anniversary, virtual reality will be of such high quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality.
- Nanomachines will be widely used in medicine.
- Nanotechnology-based manufacturing will be so widely adopted that it will radically change the economy.
- Nanobots will be able to penetrate cells to “feed” them and eliminate waste - making habitual food consumption obsolete.
- “Mind uploading” will become possible: people will be able to live on the Internet, projecting their bodies wherever and whenever they want in real or virtual reality.
- Equipment for immersion in virtual reality will disappear: nanomachines will be implanted into the brain, interacting directly with brain cells.
- Nanomachines in the human brain will significantly improve cognitive and sensory capabilities, as well as memory.
- People will be able to “telepathically” communicate with each other through wireless networks.
- It will be possible to change a person's memories and personality.
- The emergence of “human bodies 3.0”, which will not have a specific bodily form. The appearance will change as desired.
