Have you thought about the time when robots will become as common assistants in our homes as, say, refrigerators or microwaves? Ray Kurzweil makes no assumptions, he gives the exact date - 2027. But why is he so confident in his predictions? Ray Kurzweil is a renowned inventor, futurist and writer. He is also working at Google on new projects related to machine learning and language processing. Ray is known for his scientific predictions, some of which have already come true. For example, he predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, the victory of computers over the world's best chess players, the emergence of digital assistants (such as Siri), and virtual reality.
Let's remember what predictions this futurist made about what the world of the future will look like: will there be any unusual changes? Perhaps science fiction films will soon become our new reality.
Forecast accuracy
Some of his predictions are truly incredible, but Ray Kurzweil rarely makes mistakes. In October 2010, he published a report in which he analyzed all the predictions he made in his books in 1990, 1999 and 2005. Of the 147 predictions, 115 were completely true, 12 were completely true, 17 were partially true, and only 3 were false. Thus, the efficiency of the futurologist’s predictions is 86%.
2019
- Humanity will be able to defeat diseases that are fatal even in civilized countries.
- The aging process will slow down or even stop.
2020
2025
- Unmanned aerial vehicles and cars will be 100% controlled by computers.
- This year will see the premiere of ambitious nanotechnology that will help us understand how the human brain works.
2027
- Individual parts of the human brain can be simulated using a computer.
- At the end of the 2020s, artificial intelligence will appear, which in its complexity and abilities can be compared with the human brain.
2029
2030s
2040s
2045
2045-2099
Sounds incredible, doesn't it? At the same time, we only have to wait a little while to see whether these predictions actually come true.
Another year has passed and we are one step closer to dreaming about tomorrow. Here are the most futuristic developments of 2016. This year we saw the explosive growth of artificial intelligence in all areas, the green light for genetic research, the development of virtual reality and much more. Let's go.
Artificial Intelligence Finally Beats the World Go Champion
In a tournament that disputed the historic significance of Deep Blue's victory over grandmaster Garry Kasparov in a chess match in 1996, Google's AlphaGo won four of the five games played against world Go champion Lee Sedol. Before the tournament, some experts naively assumed that a machine wouldn't stand a chance against a human in a game known for its complexity and intricacy.
After his loss, Sedol sheepishly admitted, “After my experience with AlphaGo, I doubted classical beliefs a little, so I need to do more research.” Sedol's defeat was a resounding reminder that machines are rapidly catching up to humans in intelligence and that no human is immune to the power of AI.
Uber's self-driving cars are a reality
We knew self-driving taxis were inevitable, but when Uber deployed a fleet of autonomous vehicles in October, it came as a shock—and marked the beginning of a new era in transportation. Self-driving cars are still far from perfect and are completely banned in some countries, but in a little time they will be everywhere.
Welcoming the world's first child with three genetic parents
A controversial method known as mitochondrial nuclear transfer was used to make the boy using genetic material from three different parents. This therapy prevents the transmission of problematic characteristics from mother to child - in the case in question there was a debilitating Leigh syndrome, which is fatal and affects the development of the nervous system. This method has not yet been approved in the United States, so Dr. John Zhang of New Hope Fertility Center performed the procedure in Mexico, where there are no such restrictions.
The girl won the right to cryogenic freezing
A 14-year-old girl with terminal brain cancer got her dying wish when a British court granted her request to be frozen in a cryonics facility in the US. The teenager's father, deprived of parental rights, initially opposed her wishes, but the court decided that the mother would better manage the girl's wishes in her best interests.
The teenager has already died and is now frozen at the Cryonics Institute in Michigan. This precedent showed that the desire to be preserved in a giant vat of liquid nitrogen could not be challenged even by parents.
Scientists have created an artificial life form from just 473 genes
Scientists from the Synthetic Genomics Institute and the J. Craig Institute have designed and created a “minimal” synthetic bacterial genome that is smaller than any other in nature.
The goal of the experiment was to create a basic genome that scientists could use to study life, and from there add new sets of genes. Syn3.0 is a 473-gene bacterium that can be used to create virtually any type of cell with predefined properties. This will allow scientists to create artificial life forms that can be used to produce new drugs, biochemistry, biofuels and food.
Geneticists have used CRISPR to enhance human potential
In 2015, a group of Chinese scientists was the first to use the CRISPR gene editing tool to modify a human embryo by removing a defective gene responsible for a fatal blood disorder (the embryos were destroyed after the experiment). In April of this year, a second group of Chinese researchers used CRISPR to do something more interesting: it gave human embryos enhanced biological abilities.
Specifically, the researchers introduced a beneficial mutation that changes a gene in immune cells and prevents HIV from entering human immune cells (as in the 2015 experiment, the embryos were later destroyed). A small portion of the human population has this built-in immunity, but the experiment showed that CRISPR could be used to make it available to the general public.
And a research team from Sichuan University in China delivered modified immune system cells to a patient suffering from an aggressive form of lung cancer. Scientists used CRISPR-Cas9 to make cells more resistant to the presence of cancer, marking the first time a powerful gene-editing tool has been used to treat a living person.
Neural interfaces have advanced significantly
It's been a big year for brain-machine interfaces. A team of researchers led by Duke Health's Miguel Nicolelis has developed a wireless brain-machine interface that allows monkeys to control the movements of a robotic wheelchair using only the power of thought, while a team from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne implanted a neural device to restore motor ability to paraplegics primates.
Scientists in the Netherlands successfully tested a brain implant that allowed a patient with late-stage Lou Gehrig's disease to speak messages at a rate of two characters per minute, and in a similar experiment, monkeys with a brain-computer interface were able to type 12 words per minute using the power of their thoughts. Scientists from Johns Hopkins University demonstrated a system that allowed a person to move individual prosthetic fingers with the power of thought. And a team from the Battelle Memorial Institute developed a brain implant that allowed a paralyzed man to play Guitar Hero using his hands, making him the first person to restore body function using brain signals.
Compelling virtual reality is finally on the market
After a nauseating level of anticipation and hype, fully immersive virtual reality headsets are finally available to consumers, albeit with a hefty price tag. Products like the Oculur Rift and HTC Vive have lived up to even the highest expectations. These devices are truly amazing and provide just as much fun as people wanted.
Scientists have completed the plan to create a synthetic human genome from scratch
Last May, about a hundred scientists, lawyers and entrepreneurs held a secret meeting to discuss the possibility of creating a synthetic human genome. Journalists were not invited and visitors were told to keep their mouths shut. A month later, Harvard biologist George Church said that this was unnecessary, and the project itself - the Human Genome Project-write - is an attempt to build and deploy a completely artificial genome in human cells within a decade.
Researchers hope to develop powerful new technologies that will allow them to splice together long strands of artificial human DNA, and then breed these synthetic cells in a petri dish - and that's it. At least that's what they say. And it would seem that there is nothing more to discuss, but research in this area will one day lead to the creation of artificial organisms and even designer babies.
Alternative energy sources are growing faster than all others
In October, a report from the International Energy Agency showed that renewable energy capacity growth was at an all-time high, reaching 153 GW (roughly all of Canada's energy production). Much of this growth is driven by new offshore wind and solar facilities (about half a million solar panels were installed every day around the world last year).
The IEA says that for the first time, “renewables account for more than half of net annual additions to energy capacity and have overtaken coal in total global installed capacity.” Technically speaking, we reached this milestone in 2015, but we didn't realize it until October 2016.
The “lost” algorithm collapsed the British pound
On October 7, the British pound suffered a “flash crash,” falling 6% against the dollar in six minutes. Experts point to high-frequency stock trading as the culprit - and perhaps one algorithm that reacted to comments from French President Francois Hollande calling for tougher Brexit negotiations. This case highlights our dependence and the growing power of bots and algorithms, which are becoming increasingly difficult to control.
By using a chemical compound to turn rabbit brains into a glassy state and then cool them to the temperature of liquid nitrogen, 21CM scientists have shown that it is possible to achieve near-perfect long-term structural preservation of intact mammalian brains.
The new technique will allow scientists to study the brain in unprecedented detail and could also be applied to cryonics, the practice of keeping a person cold in the hope that they will one day be brought back to life. This method essentially turns the brain into an inert piece of plastic, destroying all biological components in the process.
We have taken a big step towards nuclear fusion
In February, German scientists used an experimental nuclear fusion device to produce hydrogen plasma. In the experiment, a 2-megawatt pulse of microwave energy exploded a cloud of hydrogen gas, turning it into an extremely low-density hydrogen plasma.
It lasted only a fraction of a second, but reached a temperature of 80 million degrees, similar to that of the Sun. It will still be some time before we get to safe, stable and contained nuclear fusion, but this experiment was an important step in that direction.
Google CTO and famous technology futurist Ray Kurzweil made another batch of predictions earlier this year.
As one of the leading researchers of modern advances in artificial intelligence, Kurzweil has been publishing his predictions since the 1990s, many of which have become academic.
But if five years ago he more often operated on long periods (2030s, 2040s), then recently chronological harmony has appeared in the scientist’s assumptions. Perhaps his accuracy was influenced by his work at the largest Internet company, where the futurist found himself at the forefront of many innovative developments.
Kurzweil seems to be inviting you to take part in an intellectual game and put together a puzzle - a picture of the future from his old and new predictions. If you collect all the forecasts made over 20 years in books, blogs, interviews and lectures, you will notice that the scientist described the future from 2019 to 2099 literally year by year.
2019 - Wires and cables for personal and peripheral devices of any field will become a thing of the past.
2020 - Personal computers will achieve computing power comparable to the human brain.
2021 - Wireless Internet access will cover 85% of the Earth's surface.
2022 - In the USA and Europe, laws will be adopted regulating the relationship between people and robots. The activities of robots, their rights, responsibilities and other restrictions will be formalized.
2024 - Elements of computer intelligence will become mandatory in cars. People will be prohibited from driving a car that is not equipped with computer assistants.
2025 - The emergence of a mass market for implant gadgets.
2026 - Thanks to scientific progress, per unit of time we will extend our lives by more time than has passed
2027 - A personal robot capable of fully autonomous complex actions will become as common a thing as a refrigerator or coffee maker
2028 - Solar energy will become so cheap and widespread that it will satisfy the entire total energy needs of humanity.
2029 - A computer will be able to pass the Turing test, proving that it has intelligence in the human sense of the word. This will be achieved through computer simulation of the human brain.
2030 - The rise of nanotechnology in industry, which will lead to a significant reduction in the cost of production of all products.
2031
- 3D printers for printing human organs will be used in hospitals of any level.
2032 - Nanorobots will begin to be used for medical purposes. They will be able to deliver nutrients to human cells and remove waste. They will also conduct detailed scans of the human brain, which will allow us to understand the details of how it works.
2033 - Self-driving cars will fill the roads.
2034 - The first date of a person with artificial intelligence. The film “Her” in an improved form: a virtual lover can be equipped with a “body” by projecting an image onto the retina of the eye, for example, using contact lenses or virtual reality glasses.
2035 - Space technology will become sufficiently developed to ensure constant protection of the Earth from the threat of collision with asteroids.
2036 - Using an approach to biology as programming, humanity will for the first time be able to program cells to treat diseases, and the use of 3D printers will allow the growth of new tissues and organs.
2037 - A giant breakthrough in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of different sub-regions with specialized functions will be identified. Some of the algorithms that encode the development of these regions will be deciphered and incorporated into the neural networks of computers.
2038 - The emergence of robotic people, products of transhumanistic technologies. They will be equipped with additional intelligence (for example, focused on a specific narrow area of knowledge, which the human brain is not capable of fully covering) and a variety of implant options - from camera eyes to additional prosthetic hands.
2039 - Nanomachines will be implanted directly into the brain and carry out arbitrary input and output of signals from brain cells. This will result in a "total immersion" virtual reality that will not require any additional hardware.
2040 - Search engines will become the basis for gadgets that will be implanted into the human body. The search will be carried out not only with the help of language, but also with the help of thoughts, and the results of search queries will be displayed on the screen of the same lenses or glasses.
2041 - The maximum Internet bandwidth will be 500 million times greater than today.
2042 - The first potential realization of immortality is thanks to an army of nanorobots that will complement the immune system and “clean out” diseases.
2043 - The human body will be able to take any shape, thanks to a large number of nanorobots. Internal organs will be replaced with cybernetic devices of much better quality.
2044 - Non-biological intelligence will become billions of times more intelligent than biological intelligence.
2045 - The onset of technological singularity. The earth will turn into one giant computer.
2099 - The process of technological singularity extends to the entire Universe.
When science fiction writers and futurists imagine people in the distant future, they never imagine that our descendants will look exactly like us. Eventually, we will have access to powerful tools that will be able to turn us into cyborgs, decipher DNA, etc. Therefore, there are no limits to the idea of how we can change or change ourselves.
Here are 10 strange and unusual theories for a post-human future.
1. Voluntary regression
To start the list, there could be no better theory than the assumption that humanity will not take a step forward (as most futurists assume), but will take a giant leap back. The basic premise is that society is now largely consumerist and we must take responsibility for regressing (from an evolutionary perspective) to a state where humans are not harming the planet. Having become a pre-civilization society, we would cease to be a threat to the planet, nature and ourselves. The ultimate goal will be the end of civilization and our return to the jungle.
2. Voluntary extinction
But why stop there when you can eliminate the human race as a whole - or better yet, do it in such a way that everyone will believe in the idea? This is the goal of the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement (VHEMT). Movement activists are working to phase out the human race, convincing humanity to stop reproducing. Armed with the slogan "Live happily ever after," VHEMT's ultimate goal is to return the Earth to its natural, healthy state. Humanity will disappear, and all other living beings on Earth will be able to become free to live, die and develop independently. Proponents of the model of voluntary human extinction claim that they are not misanthropes, they simply offer "a reliable alternative to the merciless exploitation and complete destruction of the Earth's ecology."
3. Increasing human “environmental friendliness”
Some “ecological” futurists are not satisfied with the options in which humanity degrades or self-destructs. But they also lack confidence in our ability to address climate change and prevent other environmental disasters. The solution to such problems, in their opinion, is possible with humanity’s voluntary change of itself, to live in harmony with the planet. Philosophers S. Matthew Liao, Anders Sandberg, and Rebecca Roach believe that people will have to switch to consuming pharmaceutical meat substitutes (to reduce the number of livestock and, as a result, for reduce the burden on nature), bioengineer cat genes for vision (to reduce the need for electricity), and reduce our physical size to minimize our environmental footprint (they recommend a 21% reduction in body weight for men and women 25% for women). They also hope to increase our willpower, which will have a peripheral effect on activating feelings of empathy and altruism.
But why limit ourselves to adding a few new traits when we can take many useful characteristics from the animal kingdom at once? Transgenic technologies, which allow the genetic mixing of human and animal characteristics, could allow the creation of an almost endless variety of human-animal hybrids. We have a lot to learn from the animal kingdom: Dogs can hear and smell much better than us, cats can see in the dark, some primates have better memory skills, and birds have extremely strong eyesight.
5. All for the brain, not for the muscles
This is the classic vision - the brain is a priority over the body. In his 1893 work "The Man of the Year Million", H. G. Wells introduced the idea that humanity's dependence on technology would eventually lead to less dependence on the body and greater dependence on the brain. Even a simple knife and fork, Wells argued, would eventually render the human jaw unnecessary. Modern conveniences such as motorized transportation will render the legs, torso, and virtually all muscles useless. Our descendants will essentially become giant brains that walk on their arms. But how realistic is this vision? According to Darwinian principles, physical characteristics will actually disappear unless they are continually subjected to selection pressure. As for the massive “onion” skull, this is unlikely, given that brain size does not correlate with intelligence, and also the fact that we will gradually unload our thinking by transferring some of its functions to external devices.
"Collective Mind" is a possible state of the future of humanity in which it has taken the form of social intelligence, as occurs in ants or bees. In such a state, the human will is largely dictated by the demands of the collective, or some overarching organization. The totalitarian experiments of the 20th century were prototypes of this idea, but fortunately they were limited by the primitiveness of their technology. But looking to the future, one can easily imagine the frightening prospect of renewed government efforts to control the thoughts and actions of the population - through widespread surveillance and control technologies. But the new "Collective Mind" can also be seen as a positive step forward in human communication and social organization, what many call the Noosphere.
Advanced reproductive and cybernetic technologies have profound effects on our biological nature. Currently we reproduce sexually, we are a binary species consisting of women and men. But we may cease to exist as a biological organism in the traditional sense. People will not be tied to one specific biological sex, they will be able to get rid of gender traits and become asexual. Even more radical is the possibility of creating new biological sexes, or amorphous gender traits, that can be changed on the fly.
8. Control over body signs
Assisted reproductive technologies such as genomics will allow future couples to select for certain traits, or, as it is more commonly called, to engage in “baby design.” It is also possible that advanced gene technologies, and gene therapy in particular, will allow people to change their characteristics after birth. However, a number of physical abilities can be used by people to gain an advantage in certain areas, leading to a kind of "arms race". Let's take sports for example. Basketball players struggle with height, while swimmers struggle with limb length. Today, athletes must have these characteristics even before entering the sport. However, it is worth noting that the changes can exceed all imaginable proportions of the human body, resulting in some strange and extreme physical forms.
9. People will change to conquer space
It's no secret that people in their current form have nothing to do in space. Long-term weightlessness and solar radiation are too bad conditions for fragile creatures like us. But that hasn't stopped theories being put forward about how humans might change to cope with the rigors of space - and their solutions are anything but small. Nanotechnology expert Robert Freitas proposed the idea of eliminating human lungs, after which there would be no need for air. Ray Kurzweil suggested that in the future, people will not need food, but will instead be equipped with nanorobots that will activate our cells. And even Craig Venter has called for the development of an inner ear that would allow people to avoid motion sickness, genes for bone regeneration, and adaptation of DNA to resist radiation. He also suggested that we would be short, have a higher percentage of energy use, and completely lose all body hair.
10. Uploads
While the idea of uploading a human consciousness into a supercomputer is strange in itself, some ideas about life after uploading are even more unimaginable. For example, the assumption that a mind uploaded into a computer will be able to create an unlimited number of copies of itself. The basis of this proposal is the suspicion that copying yourself will be fast and cheap. The downloaded mind could also be implanted from a human body into a robot body, permanently altering the actual physical form. Another exciting possibility would be to change the basic parameters of the computer environment. This may result in something beyond human understanding, both in terms of physical space (such as adding or changing the dimensions of the physics of the environment) and the nature of the psychological and subjective awareness of oneself.
Andrey Vasilkov
American inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil became the author of many technological forecasts. He published his first predictions in the book “The Age of Thinking Machines,” published in 1990. The last time Ray voiced his vision of the future was a week ago at the SAE 2015 international congress in Detroit. If you collect these dates into a single list, you will get a detailed forecast of the development of key industries until the end of the 21st century.
Raymond Kurzweil became interested in the parallel development of humans and machines while studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He always found unexpected directions - from developing speech recognition systems to solving the problem of immortality. While the digitization of consciousness and its placement in a computer model of the brain seems like science fiction, the winner of many awards and the author of the book “How to Create a Mind” is ready to name the dates for the appearance of technologies that will facilitate this.
Recently, turning fantastic ideas into reality has become an immediate task for him, since for three years now he has been the technical director of the division for the development of machine learning and natural language processing methods at Google.
Ray's futurological announcements are interesting, if only because many of his early predictions are coming true before our eyes. We are talking about augmented and virtual reality systems, wearable electronics, smart clothing, electronic assistants (like Google, Siri and Cortana), self-driving cars and dozens of other changes in everyday life. What awaits us in the near future, if we are smart enough to live to see it?
2019
Most people will have multiple computers, although the meaning of the term itself will also change. The computing power of computers costing up to $4,000 will reach 20 quadrillion calculations per second. Microcomputers will be embedded everywhere - in clothing, jewelry, furniture and even walls. The same applies to photo and video cameras, the lenses of which are reduced to the size of a pinhead.
People will receive virtual reality systems that form images directly on their retina. Users will communicate with their computers through a two-way speech and gesture interface, with little or no keyboard input. Cables and wired interfaces for peripheral devices will almost completely disappear.
All students will have access to computers. The main training will be structured in the form of remote adaptive courses, in which students and teachers will attend remotely.
Blind and visually impaired people will be able to wear glasses that will interpret the real world through speech. Similarly, deaf people will use wearable devices that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. There will also be an artificial retina, a bionic ear and other neuroimplants, but they will exist in limited numbers.
Patients with spinal cord injuries will be able to walk again using an exoskeleton controlled via a brain-computer interface or direct commands from their own nerve endings.
Numerous haptic feedback devices will appear. For example, gloves or even entire suits that broadcast remote touches. They will be used in virtual reality systems and for more emotional communication between people via the Internet, including virtual sex.
Volumetric lattices of nanotubes will displace silicon from microelectronics. Instead of traditional algorithms, parallel neural networks and genetic algorithms will begin to be used en masse.
Automatic translation systems will become so effective that they will be widely used in professional fields and everyday life.
2021
Internet access will be available from 85% of the earth's surface. It will become predominantly wireless and very cheap. Formal payment for it will be debited automatically.
Computer programs will learn to create works of art at the level of their contemporaries, or even better than them. AI-created paintings, musical compositions and sculptures will appear.
Paper books will become a rarity. The primary means for viewing text will be thin, lightweight, portable displays with very high resolution.
2022
Robots will become as common as pets. Governments in developed countries will begin to pass laws regulating the relationship between people and robots. This will happen a few years earlier with virtual characters, and some will begin to spend more time communicating with them than talking with real people.
2024
Autopilot and driver assistance systems will be widespread in cars, trucks and public transport. In a number of countries, people will be completely prohibited from driving a car without an electronic driver assistant. Between 2020 and 2025, compact personal aircraft will appear.
2025
Wearable electronics will begin to be replaced by implantable ones. We will learn to effectively fight the aging process and will constantly extend our lives with the help of nanorobots and other technologies that do not even have a name yet.
2028
Alternative energy will become one of the key technologies for the development of all others. It will be established as the dominant concept. Solar panels will become so efficient that they will be enough to cover most of the energy costs.
2029
The program will not only be able to completely pass the Turing test, but will do it better than many real interlocutors. A thousand dollar computer will be orders of magnitude superior to the average human brain in most areas.
Brain modeling will become much more accurate. The functions of hundreds of different subregions, algorithms for their development and operation will be determined. They will be decrypted and included in neural network algorithms.
2031
Many people will voluntarily become cyborgs, and due to the abundance of implants, the very term “human being” will be rethought. Organs will be manufactured by machines in any major hospital.
There will be computer implants with direct connection to the brain and individual groups of neurons. They will be able to give a person superpowers - enhance perception, improve memory, increase reaction speed and reduce learning time.
2033
Computers will learn without human intervention. Non-biological forms of intelligence will combine the subtlety of the human mind with the speed, memory and limitless knowledge sharing capabilities of machine intelligence.
Almost all cars will become self-driving. Agricultural work and transport systems will also be fully automated.
2034
The development of AI will lead to the emergence of social movements for the rights of machines. The global orbital protection program will effectively prevent large meteorites and asteroids from falling to Earth.
2038
Transhumanism will become one of the key directions. Neuroimplants will allow you to quickly receive career guidance and any specific knowledge. The body's own cells can be programmed to perform new functions and treat diseases.
2041
Internet traffic will increase hundreds of millions of times, and search engines will be built into everything. Requests can be sent to them even with the power of thought through BCI.
2045
The first realization of physical immortality: nanorobots help overcome apoptosis and protect the body from any negative influences.
2049
Food is usually assembled by nanorobots from scrap materials. Such food is completely indistinguishable from “natural” food, but can be modified in any way by simply modifying the program. For example, it can become more or less caloric, change the content of amino acids, vitamins, microelements, or even initially include enzymes for its digestion. The technology for producing synthetic food will solve the problem of hunger and make food production independent of climatic conditions and the availability of natural resources.
The distinction between virtual reality and what is still commonly called the “real world” will be completely erased. This will be facilitated by both the development of augmented reality systems and the fact that almost all physical objects will be able to perform immediate self-assembly or change their properties.
2072 – 2099
Nanotechnology will give rise to picotechnology. People will learn to manipulate structures measuring one trillionth of a meter. An era of technological singularity will begin, which will spread beyond the Earth along with humanity. Our thinking no longer has advantages over artificial intelligence. People and machines have merged at all levels of existence. Many people don't have a permanent shape at all. They exist in the form of programs, their consciousness is capable of controlling several different physical bodies at once and creating new ones. The boundaries between the material manifestations of personalities are gradually blurring, so it is impossible to accurately determine how many people live on Earth and beyond.
