Climate change global warming problem. Will the measures provided for by the Kyoto Protocol prevent warming? How big are the actual observed climate changes?

About global warming and the serious economic, social and environmental problems associated with it . In recent years, a great deal of news and information has been published on this subject. But the latest news was perhaps the coolest of all. A group of scientists from the USA, France and Great Britain said that we have already passed the point of no return and the catastrophic consequences of global warming on Earth can no longer be stopped.

Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans (definition according to Wikipedia). There are several reasons for global warming and they are associated with cyclical fluctuations in solar activity (solar cycles) and human economic activities. It is impossible to determine today with absolute certainty which of them is dominant. Most scientists are inclined to believe that the main reason for this is human activity (the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels). Some scientists strongly disagree and believe that the total human influence is small, and the main reason is high solar activity. Moreover, they even claim that a new Little Ice Age will begin soon after the current warming.

Personally, in this situation, it is difficult for me to accept any one point of view, since none of them today has sufficiently complete scientific evidence. And yet, the problem is serious, it is necessary to react to it somehow and cannot remain on the sidelines. In my opinion, even if supporters of the anthropogenic (human) factor as the main cause of global warming turn out to be wrong in the future, then the efforts and resources spent today to prevent this warming will not be in vain. They will more than pay for themselves with new technologies and attentive attitude of people towards nature conservation.

What is the essence of global warming? The essence is the so-called “greenhouse” effect. In the Earth's atmosphere there is a certain balance of heat intake (solar rays) from the Sun and its release into space. The composition of the atmosphere has a major influence on this balance. More precisely, the amount of so-called greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide and methane, although water vapor is also a greenhouse gas). These gases have the properties of trapping solar rays (heat) in the atmosphere, preventing them from escaping back into outer space. Previously, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 0.02%. However, as industry grew and the production and burning of coal, oil and natural gas increased, the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere constantly increased. Because of this, more heat has been absorbed, which gradually warms the planet’s atmosphere. Forest and steppe fires also contribute to this. This is about human activity. I will leave the mechanism of cosmic influence for the next material.

What are the consequences of global warming? Like any phenomenon, global warming has both negative and positive consequences. It is believed that the northern countries will become warmer, so it will be easier in winter, agricultural yields will increase, southern crops (plants) will be cultivated further north. However, scientists are confident that the negative consequences of global warming will be much greater and the losses from them will significantly exceed the benefits. That is, humanity as a whole will suffer from global warming.

What kind of troubles can be expected from global warming?

1. An increase in the number and strength of destructive typhoons and hurricanes;
2. Increase in the number and duration of droughts, worsening water shortage problems;
3. From the melting of glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic, rising sea levels and flooding of coastal areas where many people live;
4. Death of taiga forests due to thawing permafrost and destruction of cities built on this permafrost;
5. The spread of a number of species – agricultural and forestry pests and disease carriers – to the north and into the highlands.
6. Changes in the Arctic and Antarctic can lead to changes in the circulation of ocean currents, and therefore the entire hydro- and atmosphere of the Earth.

This is in general terms. In any case, global warming is a problem that will affect all people, regardless of where they live and what they do. That is why it is today the most widely discussed in the world, not only among scientists, but by the public.

There are many discussions and different points of view on this matter. Personally, I was most impressed by the film by Al Gore (former US presidential candidate in the campaign in which he ran alongside George W. Bush) “An Inconvenient Truth.” It clearly and convincingly reveals the causes of global warming and shows its negative consequences for people. The main conclusion made in the film is that the short-term political interests of narrow ruling groups of people must give way to the long-term interests of all human civilization.

In any case, a lot needs to be done in order to, if not stop, then at least mitigate the negative consequences of global warming. And the publication below is to think about this once again.

(Continuation )

Georgy Kozulko
Belovezhskaya Pushcha

(Write your reviews, thoughts, ideas, questions, comments or disagreements in the comments below (anonymous users sometimes need to write in a separate window when sending a comment enter coded English text from the picture) or send it to my email address: [email protected])

Catastrophic climate change can no longer be stopped

The world's best scientists believe that in the near future, humanity will face expanding deserts, declining crop yields, increasing hurricane strength, and the disappearance of mountain glaciers that provide water to hundreds of millions of people.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has already reached the point after which catastrophic climate change will begin, even if the amount of carbon dioxide can be reduced in the coming decades.

This is stated by a group of famous scientists from the USA, France and Great Britain in an article published in the Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

This study contradicts previous estimates, according to which dangerous concentrations of carbon dioxide will be reached only later this century, RIA Novosti reports.

“The silver lining to this finding is that if we take action to reduce carbon dioxide levels, we can reduce problems that already seem inevitable,” said lead study author James Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Exploration, part of Columbia University.

According to the scientist, humanity will face expanding deserts, declining crop yields, increasing hurricane strength, shrinking coral reefs and the disappearance of mountain glaciers that provide water to hundreds of millions of people.

To prevent dramatic warming in the coming years, the researchers write, carbon dioxide concentrations must be reduced to pre-industrial era levels of 350 parts per million (0.035%). Currently, carbon dioxide concentrations are 385 ppm and increasing by 2 ppm (0.0002%) per year, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

The authors of the article note that recent data on the history of climate change on Earth supports their conclusions. In particular, observations of the melting of glaciers that previously reflected solar radiation and the release of carbon dioxide from melting permafrost and the ocean show that these processes, which were previously thought to occur rather slowly, may occur over decades rather than thousands. years.

Scientists note that reducing emissions from coal combustion can significantly improve the situation.

At the same time, they are skeptical of geoengineering methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in particular, proposals to bury carbon dioxide in tectonic cracks or inject it into rocks on the ocean floor. According to them, removing 50 ppm of gas using this technology would cost at least $20 trillion, which is twice the US national debt.

“Humanity today faces the inconvenient fact that industrial civilization is becoming the main factor influencing climate. The greatest danger in this situation is ignorance and denial, which can make tragic consequences inevitable,” the researchers write.

Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats as polar ice disappears. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear without having time to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on Earth

Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. An increase in the number of climate disasters, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a reduction in summer precipitation by 15-20% in the main agricultural areas, an increase in ocean levels and temperatures, and the boundaries of natural zones are expected to shift to the north.

Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will cause the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the 19th century, the cause of such cooling was volcanic eruptions, in our century the cause is already different - desalination of the world's oceans as a result of melting glaciers

How will global warming affect humans?

In the short term: a shortage of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.

The biggest blow may fall on the poorest countries, which are least responsible for exacerbating the problem and least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures may ultimately reverse all the hard work of previous generations.

Destruction of established and customary agricultural systems under the influence of droughts, irregular rainfall, etc. could actually bring about 600 million people to the brink of famine. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to melting glaciers and changes in precipitation patterns, an environmental crisis may occur.

An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5°C will lead to a rise in sea level by 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the inundation of many small islands and flooding in coastal areas. About 100 million people will be in flood-prone areas, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, and some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the health of hundreds of millions of people could be at risk as a result of the spread of malaria (due to an increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to disruption of water supply systems), etc.

In the long term, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when the temperature rose sharply by 10°C after the Ice Age, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization.

Experts do not have accurate data on what humanity’s contribution to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth is and what the chain reaction may be.

The exact relationship between rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising temperatures is also unknown. This is one reason temperature forecasts vary so widely. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global warming to be somewhat exaggerated, as are the data on the increase in average temperature on Earth.

Scientists do not have a consensus on what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change may be, and according to which scenario the situation will develop further.

Some scientists believe that several factors may reduce the effect of global warming: As temperatures rise, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Others believe that the possible negative consequences of global climate change are underestimated:

droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will become more frequent,

An increase in the temperature of the world's oceans also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,

The rate of glacier melting and sea level rise will also be faster…. And this is confirmed by the latest research data.

Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the rate of melting of glaciers has increased 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of ​​non-melting ice of the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2008 alone).

Perhaps human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete disappearance, which could result in a several times greater rise in sea level (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).

Moreover, according to some data, global warming may occur much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the World Ocean.

And finally, we must not forget that global warming may be followed by global cooling.

However, whatever the scenario, everything suggests that we must stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It’s better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite yourself later. He who is forewarned is forearmed.

People have been using their planet for selfish purposes for thousands of years. They built cities and factories, extracted tons of coal, gas, gold, oil and other materials. At the same time, man himself barbarously destroyed and continues to destroy what nature gave us. Due to the fault of people, thousands of innocent birds, insects, and fish die; the number is constantly increasing; etc. Soon a person may experience the wrath of Mother Nature on his own skin. We will talk about global warming, which is gradually coming to our earth. Man is already beginning to experience the consequences of this cataclysm. It will turn into a tragedy both for humans and for all life on our planet. Nature is able to live without humans. It changes and evolves over the years, but a person cannot live without nature and it.

Photos of Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park (Canada) in 1940 and 2006.

What is global warming?

Global warming is a gradual and slow increase in average annual temperature. Scientists have identified many reasons for this cataclysm. For example, this includes volcanic eruptions, increased solar activity, hurricanes, typhoons, tsunamis and of course human activity. The idea of ​​human guilt is supported by most scientists.

Consequences of global warming

• First of all, this is an increase in average temperature. Every year the average annual temperature rises. And every year scientists observe that the numbers of elevated temperatures are growing;
• Melting glaciers. Nobody argues here anymore. The cause of melting glaciers is indeed global warming. Take, for example, the Uppsala glacier in Argentina, which is 60 km long, up to 8 km wide, and has an area of ​​250 km2. It was once considered one of the largest glaciers in South America. It melts by two hundred meters every year. And the Roun glacier in Switzerland rose four hundred and fifty meters;
• Increasing sea levels. Due to the melting of glaciers in Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic and warming, the water level on our planet has risen by ten to twenty meters and is gradually increasing every year. What awaits our planet as a result of global warming? Warming will affect many species. For example, penguins and seals will be forced to look for a new place to live, as their natural habitat will simply melt away. A lot of representatives will disappear due to the fact that they will not be able to quickly adapt to the new habitat. An increase in the frequency of natural disasters is also expected.

A large amount of rain is expected, while drought will prevail in many regions of the planet, the duration of very hot weather will also increase, the number of frosty days will decrease, and the number of hurricanes and floods will increase. Due to drought, the amount of water resources will decrease and agricultural productivity will decrease. It is very likely that the number of fires in peatlands will increase. Soil instability will increase in some parts of the globe, coastal erosion will increase, and the area of ​​ice will decrease.

The consequences are certainly not pleasant. But history knows many examples when life won. Just remember the Ice Age. Some scientists believe that global warming is not a worldwide catastrophe, but just a period of climate change on our planet that has been occurring on Earth throughout its history. People are already making efforts to somehow improve the condition of our land. And if we make the world a better and cleaner place, and not the other way around, as we did before, then there is every chance of surviving global warming with minimal losses.

Educational video about global warming

Examples of global warming on Earth in our time:

1. Uppsala Glacier in Patagonia (Argentina)

2. Mountains in Austria, 1875 and 2005

Factors accelerating global warming

Many people already know that one of the significant problems today is global warming. It is worth considering that there are factors that activate and accelerate this process. First of all, the negative impact is caused by an increase in emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, methane and other harmful gases into the atmosphere. This occurs as a result of the activities of industrial enterprises, the functioning of vehicles, but the greatest impact on the environment occurs during: accidents at enterprises, fires, explosions and gas leaks.

The acceleration of global warming is facilitated by the release of steam due to high air temperatures. As a result, the waters of rivers, seas and oceans actively evaporate. If this process gains momentum, then within three hundred years the oceans may even dry out significantly.

As glaciers melt as a result of global warming, this contributes to rising water levels in the world's oceans. In the future, this floods the shores of continents and islands, which can lead to flooding and destruction of populated areas. When ice melts, methane gas is also released, which is significant.

Factors slowing down global warming

There are also factors, natural phenomena and human activities, that help slow down global warming. This is primarily facilitated by ocean currents. For example, the Gulf Stream is slowing down. In addition, a decrease in temperatures in the Arctic has recently been noticed. At various conferences, the problems of global warming are raised and programs are put forward that should coordinate the actions of various sectors of the economy. This allows us to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and harmful compounds into the atmosphere. Consequently, the ozone layer is reduced, restored and global warming slows down.

Good day, dear readers! Today we will talk about global problems of humanity. I would like to discuss a topic that everyone is discussing - global warming. Find out the reasons and how the Earth suffers from this and how to cope with it...

Global warming is believed to be directly related to human activities. Although we practically do not feel a slight increase in temperature, this can have the most detrimental consequences for the entire biosphere. Water shortages and droughts, severe floods, hurricanes and fires in different regions of the planet are the result of global warming. In addition, under its influence, the flora and fauna change noticeably

Some scientists believe that these are stages of the evolutionary development of our planet. After all, the Earth has already experienced several, so we may well live in a warm interglacial. Strong warming occurred during the Pliocene era (5.3-1.6 million years ago). Then the sea level was 30-35 meters higher than today. It is assumed that the immediate cause of the ice age was a change in the angle of inclination of the earth's axis to the plane of the orbit in which it revolves around the sun. Among other factors of global warming are: an increase in solar activity and significant dustiness of the atmosphere due to volcanic activity of industrial emissions.

It was found that until 1990, the temperature increased by 0.5°C every 100 years, while recently it has increased by 0.3°C every 10 years. If humanity continues to pollute the atmosphere at the same rate, then already in the current century the climate on earth will warm by 1-5°C.

Main reasons.

The most common belief is that a mixture of natural and industrial gases (including nitrous oxide, water vapor, sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and methane) traps thermal energy in the Earth, resulting in warming. These gases have a common name - greenhouse gases, and the overall effect they have is called the greenhouse effect (sometimes the greenhouse effect).

A significant portion of solar energy is absorbed by the earth, and the unused portion normally goes into outer space. However, greenhouse gases interfere with this process, so the surface of our planet begins to warm up. Global warming is the result of the described mechanism.

Mountain systems, snow and ice sheets, and the planet's vegetation play a key role in regulating air flow and temperature. Cryosphere - areas covered with snow and ice - reflects heat from the entire surface into space. The ratio of the radiation flux scattered by a surface to the flux incident on it is called albedo by scientists. With much of the rainforest cleared, the green belt they form along the equator is gradually becoming treeless regions, which some say increases albedo and contributes to global warming.

To date, there is no consensus among scientists regarding the source and changes in the composition of the mixture of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide - a natural component of the earth's atmosphere, which is continuously absorbed and released by plants in the process of their life. Its concentration in the air is steadily increasing: from 0.0256 percent by volume at the beginning of the 19th century to 0.0340 today.

Carbon dioxide is released in significant quantities during the combustion of fossil fuels (oil, coal, wood). The ever-growing population of the globe, which uses these types of fuel as the main source of energy resources, increases carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere year after year. In addition, large-scale logging and burning of tropical forests turns green plants into carbon dioxide. All of these factors lead to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Recently, scientists have assigned a significant role to phytoplankton in the carbon dioxide cycle, since these tiny plants living in the world's oceans process significant volumes of carbon dioxide. The massive death of phytoplankton leads to the accumulation of this gas in natural layers.

Nitrous oxide is present in car exhaust, like other harmful gases produced by the combustion of fossil fuels.

Methane in the process of their life is produced by bacteria belonging to the genus Methanecoccbs, which are able to obtain energy by reducing carbon dioxide to methane.

They live in boggy soils and lake mud, in sewage sludge and in the intestines of sheep and cattle. In the polar regions, methane is retained in the frozen layer. With global warming and the gradual thawing of the frozen horizon, methane begins to be released into the atmosphere, having a significant impact on it. Scientists say that over the past 100 years the level of this gas in the atmosphere has doubled.

Chlorofluorocarbons - Man-made chemicals used in refrigeration units and aerosol sprays. After use, they enter the atmosphere and accumulate in the stratosphere. Here they interact with ozone, a natural atmospheric component. The ozone layer, which normally protects our planet from harmful ultraviolet radiation, is destroyed, forming so-called ozone holes. As a result, increased levels of ultraviolet radiation lead to more intense heating of the Earth's surface and atmosphere.

Impact on ecosystems.

Global warming may lead to intensive melting of glaciers; Already today, scientists have discovered quite large cracks in the ice fields of the Western Atlantic. Large-scale melting of ice will lead to rising sea levels and flooding of vast areas of coastal regions. According to available data, sea levels are rising at a rate of 6 cm per 10 years. If the rate of global warming continues, cities such as New Orleans (USA), Rotterdam (Netherlands), Venice (Italy), London (England) and others will be completely flooded.

And since water (like all physical bodies) expands when heated, it is assumed that this will lead to an even more significant increase in the level of the World Ocean.

As the climate warms, terrestrial ecosystems will become drier and, consequently, the risk of fires will increase. Although fauna and flora are gradually adapting to changing conditions, the number of such arid habitats is constantly increasing.

Humans, who alter natural ecosystems through urbanization, agricultural and industrial activities, and ever-increasing consumption of fossil fuels and other forms of energy, are largely responsible for global warming.

Due to lack of water and frequent droughts, crop yields in many previously very fertile regions are falling. During the period of climate change, cyclonic activity increases noticeably, which is accompanied by more frequent natural disasters: hurricanes, destructive storms, tsunamis, storms, and so on.

Flooding is another consequence of global warming, which is associated with the melting of mountain glaciers and ice-bound lakes. Mudflows in mountainous regions (due to the lack of vegetation cover that strengthens the soil horizon) and flooding of large areas of low-lying areas are quite common these days, especially in India.

This affects about 300 million people who live in mountainous areas, occupying about 40% of the land surface.

What's happening to wildlife?

Subtle temperature fluctuations (either cold or warm) have a significant impact on populations of living things. For example, the fauna and flora of Britain, which is located off the northwestern coast of Europe, is very sensitive to climate changes on the mainland: birds, insects and plants are expanding their ranges to the north, and the natural distribution regions of species that have adapted to harsh climatic conditions are, on the contrary, shrinking.

Desertification of fertile agricultural lands due to soil drainage, rising temperatures and erosion is also a danger. An example is the strip of deserts and semi-desert savannas in the south of the Sahara, which is constantly expanding due to uncontrolled grazing and timber harvesting.

Reasons for nesting.

The rise in temperature has also had an impact on the feathered inhabitants of the planet: many birds begin to build nests and breed offspring earlier than usual. As a result of long-term observations (1962-1990) of 30,000 representatives of the bird kingdom, British scientists found that as a result of global warming, the mating season begins unusually early in 33 of 88 species. This trend has been evident since the mid-1970s.

As a result, migratory birds have more time to prepare for the long and very difficult journey to the mainland, to their usual wintering areas, and species that live all year round in the British Isles have the opportunity to better prepare for the cold.

Disagreements.

Such a large scale of the emerging and developing problem necessitated its solution at the international level. The Second United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, which took place in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro and at which the Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed, served as an impetus for the creation of interstate cooperation mechanisms that provide the opportunity to reduce the amount of harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

In December 1997, a new international agreement was approved in the Japanese city of Kyoto, which is an addition to the Framework Convention on Climate Change and called the Kyoto Protocol. This agreement provides for a whole range of measures to prevent negative climate change.

All states that have acceded to the Kyoto Protocol are obliged to formulate and implement a set of measures aimed at reducing the concentration of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere.

For today I have all the information for you about global warming. Come visit more often, new articles are coming very soon. And don’t forget to subscribe to blog updates so you don’t miss them.

Global warming (interglacials) over the past 0.5 million years.
Climate indicators: sea level change (blue), 18 O concentration in sea water, CO 2 concentration in Antarctic ice. The division of the time scale is 20,000 years. Peaks in sea level, CO 2 concentrations, and minima in 18 O coincide with interglacial temperature maxima.

Climate systems change both as a result of natural internal processes and in response to external influences (anthropogenic and non-human). At the same time, geological and paleontological data show the presence of long-term climatic cycles, which in the Quaternary period took the form of periodic glaciations, with the present time falling on the interglacial period (see figure).

The causes of such climate changes remain unknown, however, among the main external influences are changes in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles), solar activity (including changes in the solar constant), volcanic emissions and the greenhouse effect. According to direct climate observations (temperature measurements over the past 200 years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain a matter of debate. One of the most widely discussed causes is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

There is scientific consensus that current global warming is highly likely explained by human activity and caused by an anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, and, as a result, an increase in the greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse gas emissions

The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first quantitatively studied by Svante Arrhenius in . This is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases causes heating of the planet's atmosphere and surface.

On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: water vapor (responsible for approximately 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds), carbon dioxide (CO 2) (9-26%), methane (CH 4) (4-9%) and ozone (3-7%). Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 have increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century. According to separate studies, such concentration levels have been reached for the first time in the last 650 thousand years - a period for which reliable data have been obtained from polar ice samples.

About half of all greenhouse gases produced by human activities remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the past 20 years resulted from the extraction and combustion of oil, natural gas, and coal, with about half of the volume of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions being sequestered by terrestrial vegetation and the ocean. Most of the remaining CO 2 emissions are caused by changes in the landscape, primarily deforestation, but the rate of carbon dioxide sequestration by terrestrial vegetation exceeds the rate of its anthropogenic release due to deforestation.

Other theories

Change in solar activity

Various hypotheses have been proposed to explain changes in the Earth's temperature by corresponding changes in solar activity.

The third IPCC report states that solar and volcanic activity could explain half of the temperature changes before 1950, but their overall effect after that was roughly zero. In particular, the impact of the greenhouse effect since 1750, according to the IPCC, is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.

Later work refined the estimates of solar activity's contribution to warming after 1950. However, the conclusions remained roughly the same: “The best estimates of the contribution of solar activity to warming range from 16% to 36% of the contribution of the greenhouse effect” (“Are Models Underestimating the Contribution of the Greenhouse Effect?” Solar Activity in Recent Climate Changes,” Peter A. Scott et al., Journal of Climate, December 15, 2003).

However, there are a number of studies suggesting the existence of mechanisms that enhance the effect of solar activity, which are not taken into account in current models, or that the importance of solar activity in comparison with other factors is underestimated. Such claims are disputed but are an active area of ​​research.

Little Ice Age theory

According to one hypothesis, global warming will lead to a stop or serious weakening of the Gulf Stream. This will cause a significant drop in average temperatures in Europe (while temperatures in other regions will rise, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent by transporting warm water from the tropics.

According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donn, in the cryoera there is an oscillatory process in which glaciation (ice age) is generated by climate warming, and deglaciation (exit from the ice age) by cooling. This is due to the fact that in the Cenozoic, which is a cryoera, with the thawing of the polar ice caps, the amount of precipitation in high latitudes increases, which in winter leads to a local increase in albedo. Subsequently, there is a decrease in the temperature of the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere with the subsequent formation of glaciers. When the polar ice caps freeze, glaciers in the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere, not receiving enough recharge in the form of precipitation, begin to thaw.

Reconstruction of the consequences

Of great importance in reconstructing the possible consequences of modern climate fluctuations is the restoration of the natural conditions of the previous interglacial period - the Mikulinsky - which took place after the end of the Rissky (Dnieper) glaciation. During the warmest epochs of the Mikulino Interglacial, the temperature was several degrees higher than modern (established from isotope analyzes of microorganism remains and gas inclusions in the ice caps of Antarctica and Greenland), the boundaries of natural zones were shifted northward by several hundred kilometers compared to modern ones. When reconstructing the warmer periods of the modern interglacial - the so-called Holocene Climatic Optimum, which took place from 6 to 5 thousand years ago, the following was established. The average annual temperature was 2-3 degrees higher than modern ones, and the boundaries of natural zones were also located north of modern ones (their general plan of geographical distribution approximately coincided with the Mikulino interglacial). From the available data on paleogeography, it is logical to assume that with a further increase in temperatures, the geographic envelope will transform in a similar way. This contradicts the hypotheses about the cooling of northern Europe and North America and the displacement of natural zones in these regions to the south from their current position.

The mutual influence of climate change and ecosystems is still poorly understood. It remains unclear whether the effects of global warming are being enhanced or weakened by natural mechanisms. For example, an increase in carbon concentration leads to an intensification of plant photosynthesis, which prevents the increase in concentration. On the other hand, the increase in the area of ​​drylands reduces the processing of carbon dioxide.

Forecast

• The European Union must reduce emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by 8%.
• USA - by 7%.
• Japan - by 6%.

The protocol provides for a system of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence lies in the fact that each country (so far this applies only to thirty-eight countries that have committed to reducing emissions) receives permission to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. It is assumed that some countries or companies will exceed the emission quota. In such cases, these countries or companies will be able to buy the right to additional emissions from those countries or companies whose emissions are less than the allocated quota. Thus, it is assumed that the main goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 5% over the next 15 years will be achieved.

There is also conflict at the interstate level. Developing countries such as India and China, which contribute significantly to greenhouse gas pollution, attended the Kyoto meeting but did not sign the agreement. Developing countries are generally wary of the environmental initiatives of industrialized countries. The arguments are simple:

• The main pollution by greenhouse gases is carried out by developed countries
• Tightening controls will benefit industrial countries, as this will hinder the economic development of developing countries.
• Greenhouse gas pollution has accumulated in developed countries in the process of their development.

Criticism of the concept of anthropogenic global warming

The famous British naturalist and TV presenter David Bellamy believes that the most important environmental problem on the planet is the decrease in the area of ​​tropical forests in South America. In his opinion, the danger of global warming is greatly exaggerated, while the disappearance of forests, in which two-thirds of all animal and plant species on the planet live, is indeed a real and serious threat to humanity.

Russian theoretical physicist V.G. Gorshkov came to a similar conclusion, based on the theory of biotic regulation he had been developing since 1979, according to which irreversible climate changes are more likely to be caused not by greenhouse gases, but by a violation of the homeostatic mechanism of global moisture and heat transfer, which is ensured vegetation of the planet - subject to some threshold reduction in the area of ​​natural forests.

The famous American physicist Freeman Dyson argues that the measures proposed to combat global warming have long ceased to belong to the realm of science, but are politicking and speculative business.

The founder of the Weather Channel, journalist John Coleman, considers “so-called global warming to be the greatest scam in history.” According to him, “Some vile and cowardly scientists, for the sake of protecting the environment and various political goals, are blatantly manipulating long-term weather observations to create the illusion of global warming among people. There will be no rapid climate change. Humankind's impact on the Earth's climate is negligible. Our planet is not in danger. In one or two decades, the inconsistency of the theory of global warming will be obvious to everyone.”

Changes in the average temperature of the Earth over the past 500 million years. Throughout most of Earth's history, temperatures have been significantly higher than they are today.

There is also a moderate position, according to which, although the influence of the anthropogenic factor on the current warming is increasing, it is still much less than the influence of natural factors. This point of view is shared, in particular, by Russian climate change specialist V. Klimenko.

University of East Anglia Norwich leak incident (November 2009)

Figures and facts

Map of changes in the thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red colors, thickening in blue.

One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.

The mass of Antarctic ice is decreasing at an accelerating pace. However, the area of ​​Antarctic glaciation is growing.

An acceleration of the process of permafrost degradation has been noted.

Other aspects of climate change

Global climate change is not limited to warming. There is also a change in the salt density of the oceans, an increase in air humidity, a change in the nature of rainfall and the melting of Arctic ice at a rate of approximately 600 thousand square meters. km per decade. The atmosphere becomes wetter, with more rainfall at high and low latitudes and less rainfall in tropical and subtropical regions.

see also

Notes

1. Brohan, P.; J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, P. D. Jones (2006-06-24). “Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850.” Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (D12): D12106. DOI:10.1029/2005JD006548. ISSN 0148-0227. Retrieved 2012-12-24.
2. Climate Change, 2001. Consequences, adaptation and vulnerability. IPCC Technical Summary for Policy Makers. III report, 2001
3. Climate Change and Biodiversity. IPCC Technical Paper V - April 2002
4. IPCC. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (summary for policy makers), IPCC.
5. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
6. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
7. http://www.dsri.dk/~hsv/SSR_Paper.pdf
8. http://www.envirotruth.org/docs/Veizer-Shaviv.pdf (unavailable link)
9. http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Solar-ClimateLAUTPREPRINT.pdf
10. http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/Rahmstorf%20et%20al.%202004%20EOS.pdf
11. Kirill Eskov, “History of the Earth and life on it: From chaos to man.” - M.: NC ENAS, 2004. - 312 p. - 10,000 copies. ISBN 5-93196-477-0
12. global heat transfer modes:
    • cryoera - continental climate on land in combination with warm oceans (which is explained by the position of the continents in the equatorial zone), as a result of which heat is transferred in the hydrosphere from the equatorial zone to high latitudes (for example, the Gulf Stream), as a result of which anticyclones develop in the atmosphere at polar latitudes , and monsoon rains do not reach high latitudes.
    • thermoera - an even warm climate on land (for example, in the Jurassic period), combined with an analogue of a continental climate for the oceans (which is explained by the absence of continents in the equatorial zone), leading to the fact that heat transfer from the equatorial zone to high latitudes does not occur in the hydrosphere, as a result, global heat transfer is carried out by the atmosphere, and not by the oceans, and as a result, there are no anticyclones in the polar latitudes, and monsoon rains reach high latitudes, leveling the climate on land.
13. The role of terrestrial ecosystems in greenhouse gas sequestration: more questions than answers
14. UN System Action on Climate Change
15. Review of the activities of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
16. Reporting on Climate Change, pp.14-15
17. The scientist was suspended from the BBC for denying global warming (November 6, 2008). Retrieved December 15, 2009.
18. Publications on biotic regulation
19. Elements: Heretical thoughts about science and society
20. http://elementy.ru/download/dyson/rus_01.wmv Video recording of the lecture with Russian simultaneous translation
21. John Coleman Says Global Warming Is a Myth (November 11, 2007). Retrieved December 15, 2009.
22. Bjorn Lomborg. Cool it down! Global warming. Skeptical Guide = Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming / T. Pasmurov. - Peter Press LLC, 2008. - 202 pp. - (World bestseller). - 4000 copies - ISBN 978-5-388-00065 -1
23. http://www.lenta.ru/conf/kapitsa/ | Internet press conference of Andrei Petrovich Kapitsa, Correspondent Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department of Moscow State University
24. Climate sensation. What awaits us in the near and distant future?
25. Climate trick
26. Climatic Research Unit emails, data, models, 1996-2009 - WikiLeaks
27. Sceptics publish climate e-mails "stolen from East Anglia University"
28. HadCRUT
29. Lies, Mr. Gordon - Greenpeace's response to A. Gordon's program on Channel 1
30. Science news: the destruction of Antarctica's ice shelves is a direct threat to the planet's ecological balance
31. Skeptical Science: Antarctica is gaining ice
32. The expansion of Antarctica has been attributed to global warming. Lenta.ru (August 18, 2010). Archived from the original on August 26, 2011. Retrieved September 3, 2010.
33. Global warming and permafrost thawing: risk assessment for production facilities of the Russian fuel and energy complex
34. Error in footnotes? : Invalid tag ; no text provided for bbc footnotes

Links

Portals

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Public information portal “Global Climate Change”

Reports, reports

• Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in Russian
• Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009. Review of the latest climate science news, in Russian. - UNSW, Sydney, Australia
• (English) John E. Walsh, James E. Overland, Pavel Y. Groisman, Bruno Rudolf. Ongoing Climate Change in the Arctic. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 2012

Articles and books

• A. Sergeev, Global warming, or High degree of politics // Around the world, 2006 No. 7
• Ivashchenko O. V., Climate change and changes in greenhouse gas circulation cycles in the atmosphere-lithosphere-hydrosphere system - feedbacks can significantly enhance the greenhouse effect.
• A. V. Pavlov, G. F. Gravis. Permafrost and modern climate // GEO.WEB.RU
• Melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere
• B. Luchkov. The coming years (climate and weather of the XXI century) // Science and Life, 2007 No. 10
• Bjorn Lomborg. “Cool it down! Global warming. Skeptical Guide", 2007, ISBN 978-5-388-00065-1
• Bjorn Lomborg. Stupid fear of global warming.

International agreements

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - official website (in English, Spanish and French)
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change // UN website (rus)
• Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change // UN website (rus)

Other

• Weather: Global warming, program “Special Correspondent” by Alexander Khabarov // Russia channel
• Experiment on distributed climate modeling in the 21st century
• Sceptical Science - a critical review of the arguments against modern global warming and its anthropogenic nature (Russian)