In recent years, it has become fashionable to sneer at the American way of thinking, the quality of education and the “eruditeness” of US residents. But there is something worth learning from the Americans. For example, the ability to extremely quickly translate theoretical scientific developments into practice and derive concrete benefits from them. And above all, this concerns computer technology. At a time when cybernetics was considered a pseudoscience on 1/6 of the landmass, computers for commercial use were already being mass-produced in the United States. The rapid development of information technology in the United States became possible largely thanks to the so-called. "thought factories", the first of which was the RAND Corporation.
"Thought factories"
“Thought factory” (a not entirely correct, but generally accepted translation of the English think tank) is a phenomenon that is still characteristic primarily of the United States. These are independent research centers, most often non-profit (but also not working for free), which conduct research in various fields at the request of corporations or government agencies. Some “thought factories” are mainly engaged in solving technical problems - designing aircraft, rocketry and satellites. Others work for American government organizations, conducting research on national security issues - both military-technical and strategic aspects. Still others make economic forecasts for large corporations and carry out orders from governments around the world. The fourth combines all of the above.
RAND Corporation
The world's first "thought factory" was the RAND Corporation (short for Research and Development). It was originally a research center founded in Santa Monica, California in 1948 under the auspices of the US Air Force. Today it is the world's largest research corporation, whose regular customers include Ford Motor, Microsoft, Intel and Pfizer, Harvard and Stanford universities, the UN, the European Commission and the World Bank, the Soros and Rockefeller foundations, the Chinese Ministry of Health and many others.
Officially, the RAND Corporation is "a non-profit institution dedicated to improving American society through research and analysis." The organization's goals are formulated as follows: "to promote scientific, educational, and charitable activities in the interests of the public welfare and national security of the United States." RAND also aims to develop new methods for analyzing strategic problems and new strategic concepts.
The corporation's headquarters is still located in Santa Monica, but for decades RAND has had branches in New York, Washington, Pittsburgh, and since the early 90s outside the United States - in the Netherlands, Great Britain, Germany, Qatar and Russia. By tradition, the RAND Corporation has a very flexible and agile structure, its management avoids excessive administration and centralization. In total, the corporation has 11 research departments - the Washington Department of Defense Problems, the departments of management problems, resource analysis, engineering sciences, environmental sciences, social sciences, physics, systems studies, mathematics, electronic computing and economics. Each department has absolute freedom of action in the selection of staff and in determining the research program. It is also an independent unit in financial terms - each department has an independent budget.
Based on the results of work on any order, RAND Corporation issues a single product - a report. Each report is considered to be an expression of the personal opinion of its authors, and not of the entire corporation as a whole - it is responsible only for the general professional level and timing of the work. In addition, the RAND Corporation regularly organizes conferences (international and national), symposiums and seminars, briefings, issues press releases, participates in the production of radio and television programs, organizes presentations for members of the US government, political and industrial organizations, and oversees educational and training programs.
History and modernity of RAND
It all started during World War II, when the United States mobilized a large group of civilian scientists and engineers to carry out cutting-edge technological developments. In a short period of time, this group created such devices that had recently seemed fantastic, such as the atomic bomb, radar and proximity fuse. A new analytical method ("operations research") was developed and used to improve the effectiveness of air defense, bombing and naval operations. After the end of the war, secret programs were implemented to develop a rotating scanning camera for aerial reconnaissance, an over-the-horizon radar installation, a silent aircraft for night aerial reconnaissance, and new methods of bombing.
In 1946, the hastily assembled team began to fall apart, and then the Pentagon decided to retain the most talented employees so that they would continue working for the military department. Specifically for this purpose, an agreement was concluded between the Air Force and the Douglas aircraft manufacturing company, and in accordance with it, an experimental institution called Project RAND was created, which two years later was transformed into an intellectual corporation. And this is where the fun begins. RAND's first major work was a study called "Preliminary Design for an Experimental Spacecraft Orbiting the Earth." Already in 1946, 50 American scientists gave a detailed assessment of the prospects for the use of satellites and space exploration. The study turned out to be surprisingly prophetic: in particular, the expected launch date of the first satellite was named, and, as it turned out later, the error was only two weeks.
Other early RAND research covered such entirely new areas as the use of rocket engines for strategic weapons (missiles), nuclear propulsion, game theory as applied to warfare, new air defense concepts, the design of new types of aircraft, metal fatigue, and high-energy radiation. And in the early 60s, RAND specialists actively became involved in computer technology and programming. We generally believe that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) played a leading role in the development of the computer industry in the United States. Indeed, most of the founders and top managers of America's largest computer corporations are its graduates. But the role of the RAND Corporation was no less. It was there that the concept of using computers (previously available only to the military) in the financial sector of the American economy - in insurance companies and banks - was developed.
Along the way, RAND researchers developed a range of sophisticated mathematical techniques, including linear programming, dynamic programming, problem sequencing, nonlinear programming, Monte Carlo, game theory, and more. Later, the efforts of RAND computer experts focused on electronic simulation—the computer-assisted creation of a system that simulates the operation of another system, which could be anything from a model of a human heart to a new weapon system. Research on this problem continues at RAND today.
In recent years, much of the RAND Corporation's research has focused on global issues, such as the changes associated with China's rapid development. However, computer technology problems do not go unnoticed. The largest IT corporations are increasingly ordering RAND futurological research to find out how computer technologies will change human life in the near and distant future, what technologies will be most in demand by humanity, etc. The "Thought Factory" is stocked with orders for years to come.
Victor DEMIDOV
For a long time, Russia has been modernizing its armed forces, which leads to well-known consequences. The results of current programs naturally arouse interest among foreign specialists, which leads to the appearance of new studies, reports, etc. Another report on the current state and prospects of the Russian army was recently published by the American research organization RAND Corporation.
The report, dedicated to the armed forces of our country, was called “The Russian Way of Warfare” - “The Russian Way of War”. The 15-page document was prepared by RAND analysts Scott Boston and Dara Massicot. As the title indicates, the main objective of the report was to identify the main trends and identify the main provisions of the Russian defense strategy. The authors reviewed information from a number of Russian and foreign official sources and media, after which they made certain conclusions.
The abstract of the report “The Russian Way of Warfare” recalls that in the recent past, Russia has carried out major reforms of its armed forces, which has led to increased capabilities in several key areas. As a result of the reform, the army became better, which made it a reliable instrument in the hands of the authorities, suitable for defending national interests. Russian strategists, concerned about the capabilities of a developed potential enemy, are wary of full-scale military action. In this regard, they are strengthening certain parts of their defense, and also focusing their efforts on maintaining influence in their neighboring countries.
As the authors of the RAND Corporation write, recent Russian operations demonstrate several basic approaches to solving combat missions. The Russian army is distinguished by a high degree of coordination of all branches of the military, and also uses deception and the simultaneous work of different units. All this allows you to reduce your own vulnerability and solve your problems as quickly as possible.
American experts believe that Russia's tactics are to achieve and maintain superiority over the enemy. To do this, all available reconnaissance means, a variety of weapons, as well as speed, surprise and interaction of troops are used. All this allows the army to meet the enemy fully armed and immediately crush him.
Studying the Russian “way of war,” foreign analysts have compiled a list of the main provisions of Russia’s strategy and tactics, which determine all its actions in certain situations. A similar list with the title “Ten Key Characteristics of Russian Warfare” includes the following theses.
1. The Russian Armed Forces are being built to protect its territory, critical facilities and populated areas. To solve such problems, a complex multi-layered integrated air defense system is being created, including a limited number of strong points. With the help of such defenses, the Russian army can buy time to properly react to a possible attack.
2. By defending its lands, Russia intends to avoid a full-scale clash with an enemy that has similar or slightly less military potential. To reduce the negative consequences of such a conflict, it is proposed to use protective and strike systems with a large range of action. When operating within their borders, such weapons provide an additional advantage.
3. Given certain weaknesses when faced with equal or less powerful rivals, Russia will try to use a strategy of indirect action and look for asymmetric ways to influence the situation, which will correct the unwanted imbalance. Using measures aimed at controlling the development of events and the escalation of the conflict, the Russian side can try to stop hostilities.
4. The best means of controlling the situation and “insurance” for Russia are arsenals of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Russia may threaten to use this. It is also possible to use it in response to a conventional attack that undermines the sovereignty of a country or threatens the nuclear deterrence of a potential enemy.
5. Several Soviet and Russian operations were carried out using Coup de main tactics - a sudden, powerful and swift strike in a decisive direction. This strategy made it possible to obtain the desired result in the shortest possible time. RAND Corporation experts believe that Russian military leaders will continue to use such tactics in the future, especially in pre-planned operations.
6. Recent reforms have led to a certain restructuring of the ground forces of the Russian armed forces. The total number of units and formations decreased, while the proportion of permanently ready units increased noticeably. Such formations, having received an order, can begin combat work in a minimum time, which will be a good response to any crisis situation.
7. In potential conflicts, the Russian armed forces can use both traditional and new approaches. In particular, special units, various armed groups and sympathetic civilians will play a significant role in the hostilities. Such structures can conduct reconnaissance and target designation, increasing the situational awareness of troops, or actively participate in battles.
8. At the tactical and operational levels, Russia can focus on hitting specific targets. In this case, the priority targets of strikes should be objects of the enemy’s communications and command and control systems. To solve such combat missions, traditional ammunition, electronic and cyber systems, as well as direct actions of military units can be used.
9. The Russian Armed Forces have a limited number of high-precision weapons with a long range. These strike weapons can be used against operational or strategic targets at great depths of enemy defense. First of all, the targets for long-range precision missiles will be stationary objects with predetermined coordinates.
10. When operating “on the ground,” Russian tactics will include the widespread use of massive artillery and missile strikes from closed positions against remote targets. The effectiveness of such strikes will increase due to the presence of mobile self-propelled artillery and missile systems that can fire both from closed positions and direct fire.
Having described 10 key features of the Russian armed forces in their current state, the authors of the report, S. Boston and D. Massicot, moved on to a detailed discussion of the listed topics. The next few sections of the document are devoted specifically to an analysis of the main theses using examples of specific situations, as well as in the context of real actions and their consequences. RAND Corporation analysts examined the process of formation of the so-called. new look, which started several years ago, and also made certain conclusions about the current state of affairs and the results of reforms.
It should be noted that such analytics are based on well-known facts that have been repeatedly announced in the recent past and at the present time. As a result, The Russian Way of Warfare simply lists the recent past and available information, accompanied by assessments in the spirit of current American views. At the same time, American experts admit that, as a result of the reforms, the Russian army has significantly increased its potential and is capable of conducting combat operations in various regions with tangible results.
Of much greater interest is the section of the report, “Tactics: Hit Hard, Move Fast,” in which the authors attempted to compare the structures and tactics of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the United States. It turned out that the two countries use different approaches to the formation and combat use of army formations, and the characteristic features of the Russian army give it certain advantages.
The Russian army, while maintaining the potential for war against a well-armed and trained enemy, has learned to properly fight illegal armed groups. At the same time, the main capabilities for supporting troops from the air, electronic warfare, etc. were retained. The US Army, in turn, was optimized to solve problems typical of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. In such a situation, Russia will seek to disrupt the proper functioning of a potential enemy, using strike or electronic means, as well as cyber systems. In addition, air defense, as well as missile forces and artillery, will be of great importance.
The RAND Corporation report provides a diagram (Figure 1) showing Russian air defense and ground strike systems. The integrated air defense system sharply reduces the enemy's strike aircraft capabilities, allowing missile and artillerymen not to fear an attack and more effectively bombard enemy troops. Such interaction gives the Russian army obvious advantages.
The authors of the report call one of the characteristic features of the Russian ground forces a large number of artillery and missile systems capable of firing beyond the line of sight. Thus, a typical American ground mechanized brigade has only one artillery battalion. In Russian motorized rifle or tank forces, the share of artillery in a brigade is noticeably larger. For three motorized rifle and one tank battalions in a brigade, there may be two units with artillery self-propelled guns, one with multiple launch rocket systems, etc.
The following diagram, given in the report, shows the ratio of the strike capabilities of artillery units from the US and Russian brigades. Russian troops have a larger number of both individual systems and units, which gives obvious advantages in the force of strikes and the depth of destruction. By correctly using various additional factors, such as the location of the theater of operations, etc., Russia can obtain other advantages.
Although the main results of the analysis of the current situation were included in the “10 Key Features” section located at the beginning of the report, the authors still added a full-fledged conclusion section to it. Brief results of the study were presented in a section with the obvious title “Conclusions”.
Summing up the results of their study, the authors from the RAND Corporation recall that the modern Russian army “grew up” from the armed forces of the Soviet Union. Despite this origin and a certain dependence on its predecessor, the armed forces have changed noticeably over time. All these changes, as noted, reflect the realities of the modern situation and the challenges facing the Russian leadership.
Currently, Russia does not have human resources comparable to the capabilities of a potential enemy, and also cannot fully reduce the gap in the speed, range and power of modern high-precision strike systems. In the modern period, the Russian command had to face a specific situation in which the traditional advantages of the army ceased to be such or lost part of their potential. In solving the problems of defending their country, the Russian leadership has taken certain measures and is building updated armed forces with the required potential.
The Russian armed forces bear little resemblance to the Soviet army, differing from it in smaller size, strength or depth of ideological training. However, they have already managed to show growing potential in various areas, based on traditional advantages of one kind or another. All this allows us to solve emerging problems at the tactical and operational levels with greater efficiency.
The reform of the Russian armed forces has been going on for several years and has led to the desired results quite a long time ago. The structure of different types of troops and types of armed forces is being finalized, and new types of weapons and equipment are being purchased. All such measures led to a noticeable increase in the potential of the army and an increase in the country’s defense capability. The results of taking special measures naturally attract the attention of foreign experts and lead to the appearance of new interesting reports. Thus, a few days ago, the RAND Corporation presented its views on the observed events.
Full text of the RAND Corporation report “The Russian Way of Warfare”:
https://rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE231/RAND_PE231.pdf
A private American company developed a scenario for the liquidation of the Soviet Union
A private American company developed a scenario for the liquidation of the Soviet Union
Recently, some interesting information appeared in business publications, from which one can understand that the Cold War has not yet completely finished off Russia. Otherwise, why is an organization created in our country similar to the American Rand Corporation - a private company, which, according to historians, was ordered by the United States to develop a program for the liquidation of the USSR.
The American strategic research center Rand Corporation became the world's first “thought factory.” The company differed from our research institutes and various academies in that it was private, did not have dozens of buildings and thousands of staff members.
But the main difference is that she set herself only those tasks that official world science considered unsolvable at the moment. “Rand...” recruited a temporary team for each project, attracting “eccentrics” from various sciences, whose flight of thought bordered on science fiction, as well as engineers, innovators and inventors who were ready to construct even a “time machine” or a “perpetual motion machine.” This is how, for example, the atomic bomb was created. After the war, from 1948, under the auspices of the US Air Force, the corporation designed airplanes, satellites and rockets, focusing on new computer technology and programming. But already in the 1950s, when in our country cybernetics and sociology were considered pseudosciences, and political science a capitalist quirk, the Randians, on their theoretical basis, were already developing top-secret technologies to introduce into the minds the idea of a global unified world order that would suit not only the rulers of the United States, but also the entire clique of those in power in the West and East. The main obstacle on this path was the USSR.
Scientific Special Forces Forecast
Recently a book was published in America about a number of secret developments of the Rand Corporation in the middle of the last century. Reviewing it, a French researcher Jean Marabini was amazed that at the beginning of the Cold War, a corporation of American scientists was planning for many years to come a world without the USSR. And she described what it would be like and how to achieve it.
So it will be a world of abundant material wealth. But it is by no means communism with its main slogans: “He who does not work, does not eat,” “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.” In a world of abundance, everyone is a consumer from birth. And he must have the main ability - “recognition of things as they are.” But he can eat and have fun without working (and some, by the way, without even aging, since Western and Russian science, according to the Rand forecast, will gain full control over the aging process by 2025). Individuals and nations that cannot be standardized will become acquainted with an “absolutely convincing psychological weapon” that does not kill a person, but has a reliable effect on his psyche so that, in pursuit of “a little happiness,” he makes decisions imposed on him in full confidence that he is making his own.
Meeting halfway
Two Rand revelations particularly surprised Marabini.
First: the atomic revolution, which humanity cannot avoid, no matter how much it resists it, “will put an end to the democratic myth forever and free its leaders both in the West and in the East from the need to obtain the consent of the crowd.” But you and I, the dark ones, for more than 25 years have only heard speeches about the advantages of democracy and are amazed at how its apologists allow themselves to bomb Yugoslavia, Iraq, Vietnam, Libya.
Second. The Russians will help America realize its dream of ruling the world. I quote:
“The only possibility for peace in the near future is a meeting between us and the Russians halfway. In that industrial society, where human labor will no longer play a useful role in enriching the state, as it did before, and where the artificially inflated value of labor, accepted today, will seem anachronistic. Wealth will become the property of broad sections of the population, and the middle class will occupy a dominant position. ... When work loses value, leisure values will come to the fore. The cornerstone of the new morality will be the search for individual happiness. The means of mass communication and the possibilities of contact between individuals will expand on a gigantic scale. Travel and relocation will become accessible to everyone. The values and norms established by the family will lose their former meaning. Increasing freedom, accompanied by increasing uncertainty, will determine the behavior of every person.
For many, feelings of anxiety and melancholy will become a permanent state. Each person's behavior will be more and more influenced by the wide, varied and changeable circle of people whom he strives to resemble. But this “era of Panurge” will still give the cripple an electronic prosthesis, and the blind a small radar that will replace his sight!.. Automatic translation will provide contacts that were not provided for by the authors of the Bible when they described Babylon. ... “Female virtues” (the search for happiness) will take the place of former male virtues (militancy, courage, etc.). In political life there will be a decline of “moralizers”, who will be replaced by “information collectors”.
So, the half-century-old forecast and the step-by-step plan for creating the necessary equipment and weapons have been declassified because they have largely come true. Through the efforts Khrushchev, Andropova, Gorbachev, Yeltsin and part of the Soviet intellectual elite, the “meeting halfway” took place.
We completely lost the Cold War. The country is split into parts, its wealth is given over to representatives of the “widest strata of the population” like the dropout Roman Abramovich and other oligarchs who have emerged from the shadows, who fill up the Forbes lists at an unprecedented speed and, as a rule, spit on Russia. The national property of the former Soviet republics, with the exception of Belarus, has either already been plundered and taken abroad, or is at the stage of plunder. Everything is left to the West. The Yalta Peace Treaty, which determined the world map, borders and the role of the victorious countries, achieved at the cost of incredible efforts of our fathers and grandfathers, has been destroyed. The victory for which millions of lives were paid has been discredited. Youth idols are forged in “House-2”. The boundaries of behavior are set by social networks. The decline of the “moralizers” has already arrived, only one remains Alexander Prokhanov. The rulers collect information from electronic social networks and report their decisions on Twitter. Illiterate youth who want to have fun and eat without working have already been taught that the USSR is a criminal state that must crawl on its knees before the West and at the same time repent and pay, pay and repent. The middle class is hooked on the needle of “civilized leisure.” The culture has been taken over by film and book mongering. There are hipsters, clubbers and other products of Western consumer subcultures all around. Children, as promised, live in a virtual world.
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A stranger among your own?
In June, news flashed that went almost unnoticed: an expert and political “think tank”, an analogue of the Rand Corporation, was created in Russia - the Foundation for the Development of Civil Society. It promises to focus on “research and activities in the areas of regional elections, civil society and media.” Its head is 41 years old Konstantin Kostin, master of sports of the USSR in judo and a journalist by training, became a famous political strategist after working for several years as the head of the PR services of such monsters as the Menatep bank, the oil company YUKOS, the management company ROSPROM, and also a member of the board directors of the ORT TV channel. He rose to the rank of head of the internal policy department of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation.
And he outlined his current credo as follows: “I want to study the history and sociology of protest sentiments - no one has ever done this fully and deeply.” So guess what: either the gauntlet has been thrown down to the Randians, or they have gained another ally. But in any case, the creation of the organization indicates that the Cold War is still going on.
