Currently, the term “statistics” is used in different meanings.

Statistics is a social science that studies the phenomena and processes of social life, it reveals the laws of the emergence and development of these phenomena and their interrelationships. In order to study statistical science, it is necessary to have an understanding of the subject of its study and to know what scientific principles underlie these phenomena.

Statistics is a particularly important science, that is, a branch of knowledge that studies from the quantitative side all phenomena in the life of society.

Translated from Latin, the word “status” means a certain state of affairs. The term “statistics” was first used by the German scientist G. Achenwal in 1749, in his book on government.

Statistics is currently understood in three meanings:

1) statistical science– all practical human activities in collecting, processing, accumulating and analyzing digital data that characterize education, the country’s economy, its culture and other vital phenomena in the life of society;

2) statistics– a science that deals with the development of technical provisions and methods used in statistical practice.

There is a close relationship between statistical science and statistical practice. Statistical practice applies the rules that statistical science has developed, but at the same time, statistical science relies on the materials that have been obtained by statistical practice, generalizes its experience and develops its new provisions on the basis of all this;

3) represented by an enterprise, organization statistics in the form of financial statements are called statistics. And data that is published in reference books, periodicals, and collections can also be used; they represent the result of statistical work.

Statistics is a tool of knowledge. Statistics Features:

1) statistical data are reported in quantitative terms;

2) statistical science is interested in conclusions drawn from the analysis of collected and processed numerical data;

3) the state of the phenomenon being studied at a certain stage of its development in specific conditions of place and time is reflected by statistical data.

Statistics has a long history and its roots go back to ancient times.

The need for the emergence of statistical practice is associated with the formation of states, i.e., in order to form a state, it was necessary to collect information about the availability of land, the number of people living on this land, their property status and many other data. Similar accounting was carried out several thousand years ago in countries such as China. Ancient Rome and Egypt.

The collection of statistical data began from ancient times. And a later period included the processing and analysis of statistical data, i.e., the emergence of statistics as a science.

The founders of the English school of political arithmetic were D. Graunt (1620-1674), E. Halley (1656-1742) and V. Petty (1623-1687). Two directions prevailed in their works: demographic with a bias towards life insurance issues in D. Graunt and E. Halley, and statistical and economic in V. Petty D. Graunt was the first to discover the patterns of mass social phenomena and showed how multiple primary material should be processed and analyzed . He first tried to construct a mortality table for the population. E. Halley, the famous English astronomer, put forward the idea of ​​the law of large numbers and applied methods for eliminating random deviations.

V. Petty devoted a number of scientific works to statistics. In them, he sought to specifically assess this or that phenomenon, despite the obvious lack of numerical data.

Political arithmeticians sought to characterize the state and development of society with figures, to reveal the patterns of development of social phenomena manifested in mass material. The goals and objectives that these scientists set for themselves are close to the modern understanding of the essence of statistics.

In the first half of the 19th century. a third direction of statistical science arose - statistical-mathematical. A special contribution to the development of this direction was made by the statistician A. Quetelet (1796-1874). He called statistics social physics, that is, a science that studies the laws of a social system using quantitative methods. He substantiated the idea of ​​using patterns identified from a mass of cases as the most important tool for understanding the objective world.

A significant contribution to the development of statistics was made by the English scientists F. Galton (1822-1911) and K. Pearson (1857-1936). F. Galton became seriously interested in the problem of heredity, to the analysis of which he soon applied statistical methods.

The most famous scientists of the 20th century. in the field of statistics in the West is R. Fisher (1890-1962). He worked for half a century. Many of his studies had a significant impact on modern statistics.

In Rus' during the X-XII centuries. information closely related to taxation was collected.

During the period of Peter's reforms, almost all spheres of the country's public life were affected. They demanded more accurate statistics regarding: bread prices; registration of newly created plants and factories; foreign trade volumes; number of cities and registration of urban population.

In connection with the rapid development of the descriptive direction in Russia, the formation of statistical science took place. The most outstanding representatives of the descriptive school should be called such scientists as I.K. Kirillov (1689-1737), M.V. Lo

Monosov (1711-1765), V. N. Tatishchev (1686-1750), K. F. German (1767-1838).

The creative work of I.K. Kirillov is one of the very first systematized economic and geographical descriptions in Russia.

The geographer made a great contribution to the development of statistical science. historian V.N. Tatishchev, he developed a detailed program so that it was possible to obtain the information necessary to compile the geography of Russia with the most complete economic description.

A special contribution to statistical science was made by M. V. Lomonosov. The book “A Word of Praise to Emperor Peter the Great,” written in 1755, assessed Peter’s revision. In his works, he considered a number of issues directly related to the population, finance, natural resources and much more.

A special merit of M.V. Lomonosov is considered to be the improvement of the program for surveying and preparing data that would characterize the geography, population, economy of the country in agriculture, trade, industry, transport, etc. Initially, this program was developed by V.N. Tatishchev to create "Russian Atlas".

The program sent survey forms to cities and counties. The survey materials were received by the academy for a long time, and were processed only after the death of M.V. Lomonosov.

At the beginning of the 19th century. A number of major works on the theory of statistics were published. In the book “General Theory of Statistics. For those teaching this science,” K. F. German outlined the main provisions that reveal statistics as a science. In the history of the development of statistics, a large role belongs to the works of K. I. Arsenyev (1789-1856); he believed that statistics are able to provide an adequate description of the life of the state.

D. P. Zhuravsky (1810-1856) is responsible for a systematic presentation of the fundamentals of the theoretical basis of statistics as a science; he revealed the principle of the unity of quantitative and qualitative analysis.

A characteristic feature of the representatives of the academic school of statistics was the desire to replace the study of the state with the study of society. The founders of this school were E. Yu. Yanson (1835-1893), A. I. Chuprov (1842-1908).

A. A. Chuprov (1874-1926), N. A. Kablukov (1849-1919) and A. A. Kaufman (1864-1919). Representatives of academic statistics had a great positive impact on the development of statistical science in Russia and on the work of statistical bodies. By the beginning of the 20th century. Russia has become one of the recognized centers of scientific statistical thought. The work of Russian mathematicians P. P. Chebyshev (1821–1894), A. A. Markov (1856–1922), A. M. Lyapunov (1857–1919) had a great influence on the development of the mathematical direction in Russian statistics. ).

The historical experience of Soviet statistics as a science was summarized in the works of V.I. Khotimsky (1892-1937), V. S. Nemchinov (1894-1964), V. N. Starovsky (1905-1975), A. Ya. Boyarsky (1906-1985), B. S. Yastremsky (1877-1962), L. V. Nekrash (1886-1949) and other scientists. A significant contribution to the theory of the index method was made by scientists S. M. Yugenberg, V. E. Adamov, G. I. Baklanov, L. S. Kazinets, I. G. Venetsky and others.

Currently, work is underway in the Russian Federation to improve and transfer statistical methodology to the accounting and statistics system accepted in international practice in accordance with the requirements of the development of a market economy.

Currently, the central body of the unified centralized system of state statistics is the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) - this is a federal executive body.

The unified system of state statistics of the Russian Federation under the State Statistics Committee of Russia consists of bodies in republics, autonomous regions and districts, territories, cities and districts, as well as organizations and institutions subordinate to them.

The Main Interregional Center for Processing and Dissemination of Statistical Information has powerful computing resources. This center is necessary for processing statistical data coming from the regions.

The statistical standards of the Russian Federation, established by the State Statistics Committee of Russia, are the forms and methods of collecting and processing statistical data, the methodology for calculating statistical indicators.

Main activities of Goskomstat is the development of federal statistical programs financed from the state budget.

The main tasks of Goskomstat:

1) coordination of statistical activities in the state;

2) development of statistical methodology that will meet the needs of society at a certain stage and international standards;

3) provision of official statistical information to the President, the Government, the public, the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, federal executive bodies, international and other organizations. In the structure of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, the following departments are allocated to solve the problems of collecting, processing and analyzing statistical data: statistical planning and organization of statistical observation , statistics of construction and fixed assets, statistics of the environment and agriculture, statistics of prices and finance, population statistics and a number of others in sectors of the economy and social sphere. In accordance with federal programs, certain types of statistical work are carried out not only by the State Statistics Committee of Russia, but also by other government bodies: the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Education of Russia, the Ministry of Finance of Russia, the Ministry of Labor of Russia, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and others (the total number of ministries and departments is more than 200).

Any science has specific features that distinguish it from other sciences and give it the right to independent existence. The main feature of each science lies in the subject of knowledge, in the principles and methods of studying science, which together form its methodology.

Subject statistical science are:

1) massive socio-economic phenomena of life;

2) the quantitative side of these phenomena in specific conditions of place and time.

Through statistical indicators, statistics studies all phenomena and processes occurring in the life of society.

Quantitative assessment of the properties of the object being studied is a statistical indicator. Depending on the function, statistical indicators can be divided into: analytical indicators, accounting and evaluation indicators.

Analytical indicators are used to analyze statistical information and characterize the peculiarities of the development of the phenomena being studied: the rate of development over time, the typicality of a characteristic, the ratio of its individual parts, the measure of distribution in space, etc. Relative and average values, indicators of variation and dynamics, crowding connections and many others are used in statistical science as analytical indicators.

Accounting and evaluation indicators is a statistical characteristic of the size of qualitatively defined socio-economic phenomena in specific conditions of place and time.

Accounting and evaluation indicators can reflect the volume of their distribution in space or the levels of development achieved at certain points.

In statistics, characteristics can be expressed by semantic concepts and numerical values.

Attributive It is customary to name features that are expressed by semantic concepts, for example, a person’s gender – man and woman – can be classified as an attributive feature. If attribute characteristics take one of two opposite meanings, they are called alternative.

Quantitative It is customary to call characteristics that are expressed in numerical values, for example, wages received, age, income received, length of service.

Varying name signs that take on different meanings for individual units of the phenomenon being studied. The value of a varying characteristic in individual units of the phenomenon being studied is called option.

In a statistical study, signs are divided into:

1) basic – determine the main (main) content of the object being studied;

2) secondary - these are signs that are not directly related to their main content.

By studying its subject, statistical science forms statistical aggregates.

A set of units united in accordance with the research objective by a qualitative single basis is called statistical aggregate.

Unit of the aggregate called the primary element of a statistical population. The population unit is the carrier of the characteristics subject to registration and the basis of the account maintained during the survey.

1) volume (population);

2) calculated (average values);

3) planned;

4) reporting;

5) prognostic.

Statistical indicators must be distinguished from the concept of “statistical data”, since statistical data are specific numerical values ​​of statistical indicators. Statistical data depends on the specific conditions of place and time and is defined as quantitative and qualitative.

Based on the basic principles of economic theory, statistics enriches economic sciences with facts that it receives as a result of statistical research.

In historical conditionality, statistics studies the dynamics of socio-economic phenomena.

Statistical methodology- These are a variety of methods. used to study their subject.

Currently, knowledge of statistics is necessary for every specialist in order to make decisions in stochastic conditions and analyze the elements of a market economy.

Statistics is based on the dialectical categories of random and necessary, individual and mass, individual and general, qualitative and quantitative.

According to the dialectical method of cognition, social phenomena and processes occurring in the social life of the country are considered in development, mutual connection and causality. Knowledge of the laws of social development gives us the foundation for the correct interpretation of phenomena subject to statistical research, and also helps us choose the appropriate methodology for their study and analysis.

Main stages of economic and statistical research.

Stage 1: with the help of mass scientifically organized observation, primary information is obtained about individual facts (units) of the phenomenon being studied.

The information collected during mass observation represents the source material for statistical generalization in order to obtain objective conclusions about the phenomenon being studied.

In order to free yourself from the influence of random causes and establish the characteristic features of the object being studied, you need to obtain information about a sufficiently large number of units.

Stage 2: this is a grouping and summary of materials, which represent the division of the entire mass of units into homogeneous groups and subgroups, and the presentation of the results obtained in the form of statistical tables. In order to isolate units of different composition from all cases, to show the features of phenomena, it is necessary to use grouping.

After grouping, you need to summarize the observation data that was obtained during the statistical study.

At the third final stage, an analysis of the statistical information obtained from the summary is carried out based on the use of generalizing statistical indicators: absolute and relative values, average values, statistical coefficients and indices.

Tabular and graphical methods are widely used in the study of statistical information.

The growth of productive forces and scientific activity in Russia caused the development of statistics and its application in practical activities.

The main tasks of statistical science:

1) explore the transformations of socio-economic processes taking place in society;

2) identify reserves for the efficiency of social production;

3) provide legislative bodies with reliable information in a timely manner.

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• 2.4 Modern organization of statistics in Kazakhstan and abroad
• 2.6 Assignments for independent work
• 2.6.1 Test tasks
• Topic 3. Statistical observation
• 3.1 Statistical observation, its tasks and forms
• 3.2 Statistical observation program
• 3.3 Organizational types and methods of statistical observation
• 3.4 Statistical reporting
• 3.5 Statistical censuses
• 3.6 Errors in statistical observation and measures to combat them
• 3.7 Examples of solving typical problems
• 3.8. Tasks for independent work
• Topic 4. Statistical summary
• 4.1 General concept of statistical summary
• 4.2 Grouping - the scientific basis of statistical summary
• 4.3 Complex and secondary groupings
• 4.4 Distribution series
• 4.5 Statistical tables
• 4.6 Examples of solving typical problems
• 4.7 Tasks for independent work
• Topic 5. Absolute and relative values, generalizing indicators in statistics
• 5.1. Layout of a statistical table for characterizing enterprises by main industries
• 5.2. Absolute statistical values
• 5.3.1 Relative values
• 5.4 Graphic representation of absolute and relative values
• 5.5 Tasks for independent work
• Topic 6. Average values
• 6.1 The essence and types of average values ​​in statistics
• 6.2 Arithmetic mean
• 6.3 Harmonic mean
• 6.4. Mode and median
• 6.5 Basic rules for using averages in statistics
• 6.6 Assignments for independent work
• Topic 7. Variation indicators
• 7.1 Variation indicators
• 7.2. Methods for calculating variance
• 7.3. Techniques for analyzing variation series
• Topic 8. Selective observation
• 8.1. Theoretical foundations of sample observation
• 8.2. Methods for forming sample populations
• Topic 9. Dynamic series
• 9.1. Dynamic series and their types
• 9.2. Analytical indicators of time series and reception of analysis of time series
• 9.3. Methods for identifying trends in time series
• Subject 10 . Indexes
• 10.1 General concepts about indexes
• 10.2 Principles and methods of calculating general indices
• 10.3 Converting aggregate index to average indexes
• Topic 11. Using indexes in analysis
• 11.1 index method for analyzing dynamics factors (system of interrelated indices)
• 11.2 Studying the influence of structural changes using indices (indices of variable and constant composition)
• 11.3 Studying the impact of structural changes at the macro and micro levels
• Topic 12. Statistical methods for studying relationships
• 12.1 Types of relationships. balance method for studying relationships
• 12.2 Correlation connections, their nature and forms
• 12.3 Measuring the closeness of the relationship between qualitative (attributive) features
• 12.4 Measuring the strength of relationships between quantitative traits
• 12.5 Graphical method for identifying correlation dependencies
• 12.6 Method of analytical groupings
• Topic 13. Correlation-regression method for studying relationships
• 13.1 Univariate correlation regression analysis
• 13.2 Nonlinear dependencies
• 13.3 Regression analysis

Topic 1. Subject and method of statistics

1.1 General understanding of statistics and the history of its development

Currently, the term “statistics” is usually used in three meanings:

firstly, it is a set of digital information, statistical data presented in the reports of enterprises, organizations, sectors of the economy, as well as published in collections, reference books, periodicals, which are the result of statistical work.

secondly, statistics is a branch of practical activity related to the collection, processing and dissemination of data.

thirdly, statistics is a complex and multifaceted science. As a science, it is divided into two parts: general theory of statistics and socio-economic statistics.

The general theory of statistics is essentially a mathematical discipline, merging with mathematical statistics. The basic basis of the general theory of statistics is the theory of probability. In this part, statistics is a broad-based methodological science that studies and develops methods for quantitative display, analysis and modeling of mass varying phenomena in society, economics, production, and natural phenomena.

Socio-economic statistics are divided, according to the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (1994, Appendix 1, principle 1), into four main branches: economic, social, demographic and environmental statistics, based on the UN System of National Accounts (1993) (Table 1.1).

The place of the general theory of statistics in the system of branches of statistics

A more detailed classification of branches of statistics and types of activities of statistical organizations is given in Appendix 2.

The emergence and development of statistics. Historians of statistics usually point to the collection of certain numerical data, which was carried out in ancient times, as the beginnings of statistics. Thus, the first information about population censuses that has reached us dates back to China, where they were carried out more than four thousand years ago. It is known that one of them took place during the era of the legendary Xia dynasty in 2238 BC. There is information about population registration in Ancient Egypt, Greece, Rome, Iran, Japan and other ancient states.

In Italy in the 16th century. collections of information about various states begin to appear, interest in which was due to developing international trade. The first attempts to systematize the material collected about the state of states appeared in Germany at the end of the 17th century. The new science was called state science. Its founder was the German scientist G. Comring (1606-1681).

Further, G. Achenval and A. Shletser worked in this direction. Since 1742 Achenval (1719-1772) for the first time, first at Magdeburg and then at the University of Göttingen, began to read a new academic discipline, which he called statistics. The school existed for more than 150 years without changing its theoretical foundations. The subject and method of this science were not clearly defined. Mostly information and descriptive material was collected.

In Russia, prominent representatives of the descriptive school of statistics are I.K. Kirillov (1689-1737), V.N. Tatishchev (1686-1750), M.V. Lomonosov (1711-1765), I.I. Golikov (1735-1801), S.N. Pleshcheev (1752-1802), M.I. Chulkov (1740-1793).

Almost 100 years earlier than the aforementioned descriptive German school of statistics, the English school of political arithmetic arose, which is closest to the modern understanding of statistics. Its founders are J. Graunt (1620-1674), E. Halley (1656-1742) and V. Petty (1623-1687). Their works were dominated by two directions: demographic and statistical-economic. The school developed not only in England, but also abroad, in particular in Holland and France.

The development of the captaincy system led to a rapid revival of statistical activity, which was due to the increasing role of statistics as one of the means of public administration.

Statistics, which emerged as a science in the 18th century, firmly took its place in the general family of sciences in the next century. In many European countries at the beginning of the 19th century. Special institutions are created that begin to systematically collect and process various statistical information. Thus, in France already in 1801 a statistical bureau was created. Then state statistics bodies are created in Prussia, Austria, Belgium, England and Russia.

The first International Statistical Congress was held in Brussels in 1853, and then met eight times in different European cities over the course of about two decades. In 1885, a permanent international statistical body was created - the International Statistical Institute, which took over the functions of the International Congress.

In the first half of the 19th century. a third direction of statistical science arose. It was called statistics - mathematical. A special contribution to the development of this direction was made by the Belgian scientist Adolphe Quetelet (1796-1874), who called statistics “social physics”, i.e. a science that studies the laws of social life using quantitative methods.

The works of Russian mathematicians P.P. had a great influence on the development of the mathematical direction in statistics. Chebysheva (1821-1894), A.A. Markova (1856-1922). A.M. Lyapunov (1857-1919). The most famous scientists of the 20th century. in the field of mathematical statistics in the West is R. Fisher (1890-1962).

The period of the late XIX - early XX centuries. associated with the name of the Russian scientist A.A. Chuprov, who set the task of building on the ruins of the Quetelet doctrine, which fell under the blows of German criticism, a new building of statistical theory, called the academic school of statistics.

In the Soviet school of statistics, the most prominent representatives of this direction were the names of V.I. Khotimsky (1892-1937), V.S. Nemchinov (1894-1964), V.N. Starovsky (1905-1975), A.Ya. Boyarsky (1906-1985), B.S. Yastremsky (1877-1962), L.V. Nekrasha (1886-1949). In the post-war period, a major contribution to the theory of the index method was made by S.M. Yugenberg, V.E. Adamov, G.I. Baklanov, L.S. Kazinets, I.G. Venetsky, in the theory of statistical communication - Ya.I. Lukomsky.

1.2 The subject of statistics and its theoretical foundations

Every economist must understand statistical data, be able to use them in their work, be fluent in the methods of economic and statistical analysis and draw correct conclusions based on its results.

Sometimes statistics is considered as a universal or methodological science - as a theory that consistently sets out statistical methods that are equally applicable to the analysis of social and natural phenomena. In this sense, the concept of “statistics” merges with mathematical statistics, which is based on probability theory.

Thus, according to the Eurostat manual “Fields of study and areas of training” (1999), the study of statistics (code 462) is understood as “the study of the collection, description, organization and analysis of digital data” /1, p.37/.

Moreover, statistics, together with mathematics (code 461), is included in the field of education with code 46 “mathematics and statistics” in the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED, 13CEB-97).

The study of statistics includes programs in actuarial science (insurance statistics), mathematical (theoretical) statistics, probability theory, applied statistics, survey design, and sample surveys. However, the study of population studies is excluded from this area and included in area 312, Sociology and Cultural Studies.

We believe that the understanding of statistics as a kind of universal science (in the narrow sense of the word) is more suitable for the general theory of statistics, despite the fact that it is primarily intended for the quantitative study of social phenomena.

The course of general theory of statistics outlines the main categories, principles of statistical science, scientific foundations of methods for collecting, processing and analyzing statistical data. In the course of their activities, specially trained statistical personnel are guided by certain provisions and rules established by statistical science.

Considering that statistics is associated with the study of socio-economic phenomena and processes, let us define statistics as an independent social science (in the broad sense of the word). Like any science, it has its own subject of research and its own specific methods.

Subject of statistics. Statistics studies the qualitative content of mass social phenomena from the quantitative side.

This definition reveals three features of statistics:

1) statistics is not a universal science that boils down to mathematical statistics, but a science that studies social phenomena (however, we agree with those scientists who by statistics as a universal science mean only the general theory of statistics, essentially merging with mathematical statistics) ;

2) the qualitative content of social phenomena is studied from the quantitative side;

3) statistics studies mass social phenomena, i.e. Statistics studies sets, characterizing them quantitatively according to various characteristics. It deals with categories such as statistical totality, variation, varying characteristics, statistical patterns, and the law of large numbers.

Since statistics is a social science, its theoretical basis, like other social sciences, is economic theory and philosophy.

Statistics and economic theory. A statistician must be a good economist in order to correctly understand the essence of the phenomena he studies.

Based on advanced economic theory, the statistician carries out a scientific generalization in a statistical summary of a set of factors and their appropriate differentiation and combination into groups. It is knowledge of the laws of social development that determines those indicators, groupings and classifications with the help of which statistics will give specific digital characteristics of social phenomena.

And, conversely, statistics provide a new sum of facts, generalized in the form of statistical patterns, which allow the development of economic theory.

It should also be noted that the basis of demographic statistics is also demography, or the science that studies population.

Statistics and Philosophy. The general laws of dialectical and historical materialism underlie statistical methodology.

One of the requirements of the dialectical method of cognition is the consideration of all phenomena not in isolation from each other, but in mutual connection. In metaphysics, nature and society are considered as a random accumulation of objects and phenomena, separated from each other. Statistics examines the facts related to a given phenomenon in their integrity, connection and interdependence, revealing causal relationships.

Another feature of the dialectical method of cognition is the consideration of all phenomena of nature and society in continuous development. Phenomena must be considered not only in their mutual connection and conditionality, but also from the point of view of their movement, change, development, from the position of their emergence and disappearance. Statistics considers all social phenomena in their historical conditionality, and the resulting statistical characteristics as historical, inherent in a given mode of production. This feature of the dialectical method is very important for all branches of statistics and especially for methods of studying dynamics, the method of averages and the method of groupings.

Statistics is also based on the dialectical law of the transition of quantity into a new quality. Development is seen as a transition from minor and hidden quantitative changes to fundamental, qualitative changes. Also, such concepts as random and necessary, individual and mass, individual and general are used dialectically in statistics.

Regularity of mass social processes and phenomena. By summarizing the characteristics of mass social phenomena, statistics use them to identify certain patterns that appear in a certain order of arrangement, correlation or change in statistical data. They can be of the following types:

I) patterns of development (dynamics) of phenomena (for example, dynamics of population, production volumes, living standards of the population, production costs, etc.);

2) patterns of changes in the structure of phenomena (for example, the share of the urban population in its total number; the share of branches in industry that ensure technical progress; the share of individual products in population consumption);

3) patterns of distribution of units within the population (distribution of the population by age, distribution of the number of customers in stores by hour, etc.);

4) patterns of coherent changes in various varying characteristics in the aggregate (dependence of yield on the amount of fertilizer applied, level of qualifications of workers depending on work experience, etc.).

Generalizing statistical data are formed under the influence of a complex set of reasons, some of which are basic, common to all units of the population, while others are of a purely individual (random for the entire population) nature. In general statistical indicators, calculated on the basis of mass observation, the consequences generated by these individual causes are smoothed out, and the consequences due to causes common to the entire population are clearly manifested. This is where the law of large numbers comes into play.

The law of large numbers requires a sufficiently large number of observations so that the statistical characteristics are typical and free from the influence of random factors. For example, it has been noted that for every 100 girls, 105-107 boys are born, which is a manifestation of a certain biological law.

1.3 Statistical methodology and statistical indicators

Statistical research is divided into three successive stages:

1) statistical observation, i.e. collection of primary statistical material;

2) summary and development of observation results, i.e. their processing;

3) analysis of the obtained summary materials.

At each of these stages, specific methods are used that form the statistical methodology and are determined by the specifics of the subject of statistics.

Mass observation method. Since statistics studies patterns that appear in mass phenomena under the influence of law

large numbers, then at the first stage of statistical research mass observation should be ensured, i.e. collection of a large number of individual individual facts and individual values, inherent characteristics.

Grouping method. In the second stage of statistical research, the collected facts are systematized and counted or summarized. They are divided on the basis of differences and united on the basis of similarity, in other words, they are grouped. Using the grouping method, statisticians divide the phenomena being studied into the most important types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to the characteristics being studied.

Methods of analysis using summary indicators. At the third stage of statistical research, the summary material, the manifestation of patterns and connections in the facts being studied, and the characteristics of their typical features are analyzed. At this stage, generalizing indicators are calculated (total, relative and average values, statistical coefficients).

Analysis using general indicators consists of measuring characteristics, aggregation, calculating relative and average values, a summary assessment of the variation of characteristics, the dynamics of phenomena, the use of indices, balance sheet constructions, the calculation of indicators characterizing the closeness of connections, as well as other techniques.

All this is complemented by a tabular method of the most rational presentation of digital material and a graphic method - a method of visually depicting statistical data.

Statistical population - This is a mass of individual units of the same type, united by a single qualitative basis, but differing from each other in a number of characteristics.

For example, a population will be the population of a country, which consists of individual people who differ in gender, age and other characteristics. However, it is united in the sense that it is the population of one country.

Mass phenomena always represent collections of units that are homogeneous in a certain respect, but differ from each other in other respects.

Statistics characterize aggregates with their numbers-indicators, which can be of two types:

1) indicators that provide a general description of the volume of aggregates. As an example, the number of employees, production volumes, etc.

2) indicators that summarize the characteristics of populations according to a number of characteristics. For example, characteristics of the population according to the census results: by gender, age, nationality, level of education, etc.

Variable characteristics are characteristics that take on different meanings (qualitative or quantitative) for individual units of the population.

The value of a varying characteristic in individual units of a population is called a variant. For example, workers of any enterprise differ among themselves by gender (qualitative value - man or woman) or by the level of wages received (quantitative values ​​of the attribute).

Statistics - this is a general accounting. Statistical figures give a general description of any collection of facts, expressing their number, volume, ratio of parts or average level using their characteristics. Thus, it is one of the types of accounting, namely generalizing accounting, dealing with the characteristics of aggregates rather than individual facts.

A statistical indicator is a quantitative measure of social phenomena that has qualitative certainty.

It is necessary to distinguish between the content of a statistical indicator and its specific quantitative dimensions.

The content or qualitative certainty of the indicator characterizes the socio-economic category (population, national wealth, production volume, trade turnover, etc.). The quantitative dimensions of statistical indicators (i.e. statistical data) depend on the specific conditions of place and time.

For example, wages are a specific economic category. Statistics measure its total volume and average level. Therefore, statistical indicators arise that characterize the wage fund and average wages. In different conditions and at different times, statistics on these indicators vary.

The most important task of statistical science is to develop a methodology for calculating statistical indicators. These issues are resolved within the framework of industry statistics.

System of statistical indicators. Statistical indicators must be in a certain relationship with each other, forming a system of interrelated indicators. The system of statistical indicators is based on modern demography, economic theory and other social sciences.

At the international level, statistical indicators are systematized in separate manuals of international organizations: Manual on the SNA, Manual on Public Finance, Manual on Banking and Financial Statistics, Manual on the Balance of Payments, etc.

The system of statistical indicators is not immutable. In the process of social development, some phenomena die out, others arise, which is reflected in the system of indicators.

SELF-TEST QUESTIONS.

1. What is meant by statistics?

2. When did statistics originate, what were the goals of its creation?

3. List the main schools in the development of statistical science?

4. What is meant by statistics in the narrow sense of the word?

5. Why is statistics a social science? How does it differ from other social sciences?

6. What is the theoretical basis of statistics?

7. What is called the pattern of mass processes and phenomena?

8. What types of these patterns are there?

9. What stages does statistical research fall into, and what work is carried out at them?

10. What specific methods are used at each stage of statistical research?

11. What is a statistical population?

12. Explain what is the difference between a variant and varying characteristics?

13. What is a statistical indicator? How does it relate to certain socio-economic categories?

1. Anderson R, Olsson A. - K. Areas of study and areas of training. Eurostat, December 1999. - 108 p.

2. Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated May 7, 1997 No. 98-1 “On State Statistics” (as amended and supplemented by the Laws of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated 30.01.01 No. 154-11; dated 15.01.02 No. 280-11; dated December 20, 2004, No. 13-111; dated December 21, 2004, No. 14-111).

3. Program for improving state statistics in the Republic of Kazakhstan for 1999-2005 / Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated November 19, 1998 No. 1180.

4. Kharlamov A.I. and others. General theory of statistics. - M.: Finance and Statistics 1995.

5. Eliseeva I.I., Yuzbashev M.M. General theory of statistics: Textbook. - 3rd ed. / Ed. member - corr. RAS I.I. Eliseeva. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1998. - 368 p.: ill.

6. Theory of statistics: Textbook for universities / Edited by R.A. Shmoilova. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1996.

7. Efimova M.R., Petrova E.V., Rumyantsev V.N. General theory of statistics: Textbook for universities. - M.: INFRA-M, 1998. Kharchenko L.I. and others. Statistics. - M.: INFRA-M, 1997. Sidenko A.V., Popov G.Yu., Matveeva V.M. Statistics: Textbook. - M.:

8. Gusarov V.M. Theory of statistics: Textbook for universities. - M.: Audit, UNITY, 1998.

9. Ryauzov N.N. General theory of statistics: Textbook for students. econ. specialist. universities - 4th ed., revised. and additional - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1984. - 343 p., ill.

10. General theory of statistics: Textbook / T.V. Ryabushkin, M.R. Efimova and others - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1981.

11. General theory of statistics: Textbook / G.S. Kildishev, V.E. Osvienko, P.M. Rabinovich, T.V. Ryabushkin. - M.: Statistics, 1980.

12. Statistical Dictionary / Ch. ed. M.A. Korolev. - 2nd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1989.

Zassignments for independent work.

1.5.1. Test tasks

1 . What's Wrong About Statistics as a Science:

1) studies social phenomena;

2) studies the qualitative content of social phenomena;

3) studies the qualitative content of social phenomena from the quantitative side;

4) studies mass phenomena;

5) statistics is a universal science.

2 . The theoretical basis of statistics is:

1) mathematical sciences and philosophy:

2) mathematical sciences and demography;

3) philosophy, economic theory and demography;

4) philosophy and demography;

5) all economic and social sciences.

3 . The types of statistical patterns do not include:

1) patterns of dynamics;

2) patterns of structure;

3) patterns of distribution of units within the population;

4) patterns of large numbers;

5) patterns of coherent changes in various varying characteristics in the aggregate.

4 . The higher the level of specialization of stores, the higher the level of trading costs - this is a pattern:

1) movement in time;

2) changes in the structure of phenomena;

3) distribution of units within the population;

4) large numbers;

5) coherent changes in various varying characteristics in the aggregate.

5 . The pattern inherent in this phenomenon manifests itself:

1) in certain values ​​of each characteristic;

2) with a sufficiently large number of observations;

3) in the deviation of some values ​​from their average value;

4) provided that the phenomenon is stationary;

5) in each individual case.

6 . Specific techniques used by statistics form:

2) statistical observation tools;

3) the regularity of the statistical phenomenon;

4) summary of statistical results;

5) statistical methodology.

7 . Manysocio-economicobjects,uniteda single qualitative basis, but differing in a number of characteristics, is called:

1) statistical aggregate;

2) a system of statistical indicators;

3) a set of characteristics;

4) object of observation;

5) statistical table.

8 . Variable characteristics of population units - these are signs that:

1) have qualitatively different content;

2) take on different meanings;

3) are identical;

4) differ quantitatively and qualitatively;

5) constant or stable.

9 . A variant is called:

1) the number of values ​​of an individual characteristic of a population unit;

2) the number of an individual value of a characteristic of a population unit;

3) the value of a varying characteristic in individual units of the population;

4) the qualitative value of the quantitative content of a unit of the population;

5) units of the population.

10 . A quantitative measure of social phenomena that has qualitative certainty is called:

1) statistical unit;

2) option;

3) object of observation;

4) a unit of the population;

5) statistical indicator.

11 . Statistical indicators that are in a certain relationship with each other form:

1) a system of statistical indicators;

2) statistical classification;

3) statistical grouping;

4) statistical table;

5) statistical regularity.

Topic 2. Principles of organizing statistics

2.1 The role of statistics in planned and market economies

Information as a set of necessary information and data for successful analysis, control, adoption and organization of management decisions is a necessary element of effective management of socio-economic processes. In the general body of information in the management system, statistical information is highlighted that characterizes mass phenomena over a long period, allows one to identify trends, connections between aspects of development, and the essence of the interaction of factors. Statistical information is designed to serve the entire management cycle.

Socio-economic statistics provide important digital information about the level and possibilities of a country's development. It acts as one of the decisive guidelines for policy, promotes an objective discussion of specific issues and, by satisfying the information needs of all individuals and institutions involved in socio-political and socio-economic processes, allows more informed decisions to be made.

The very labor-intensive work of providing the data necessary for these purposes is a very important state task, the implementation of which is the responsibility of the so-called “official statistics”.

In the vast majority of countries, certain government agencies occupy a special position as the official producers of socio-economic data. This is due to the fact that regular statistical surveys require significant funding. In addition, to ensure the reliability of the results of such surveys, the state can, if necessary, put pressure on respondents to provide free and timely information.

Unofficial statistics are presented by organizations that, as a rule, do not have legislatively enshrined special rights that allow them to obtain the necessary information from respondents. It deals primarily with statistical analysis of official statistics, supplementing them, if necessary, with its own surveys and calculations.

It should be noted that the role of official statistics in a market economy is fundamentally different from its role in a planned economy.

In a planned economy, official statistics were a tool for monitoring the implementation of the plan. It was also an instrument of agitation and propaganda. This state of affairs led to the fact that microdata (data about an individual enterprise or person) were not anonymous and could be used not only for statistical purposes. At the same time, macrodata (aggregated survey results), on the contrary, were often secret.

In market economies, the role of official statistics is exactly the opposite. Microdata, with the exception of publicly available data, must be kept secret, while macrodata, on the contrary, is available to everyone. Statistics and accounting (for monitoring the activities of enterprises), with rare exceptions (as in, for example, ensuring banking supervision), are fundamentally separated.

The history of the development of state statistics of Kazakhstan from the moment of its institutionalization on November 8, 1920 as a single body of the Kazakh Autonomous Republic formed in August of the same year as part of the RSFSR shows that its functioning until Kazakhstan acquired independence on December 16, 1991 occurred in accordance with the plan creation of a centrally managed economy.

As K. Baizhanova, a researcher of the history of domestic statistics, writes, the pattern of development of state statistics in Kazakhstan during the Soviet period is that it “does not develop in accordance with the canons of classical statistics, based on the law of large numbers and the method of sampling research, which necessarily performed analytical and predictive functions, and as an element of integrated planned centralized accounting. Accordingly, statistics undergoes significant qualitative changes (in form, principles, procedure for collecting and reflecting information, reporting, etc.) 1."

If at the time of its inception, Kazakh statistics still retained the features and principles of classical statistics, then later, after a number of reorganizations, it essentially turned into a simple data registration body based on continuous reporting, and the composition of socio-economic indicators was focused mainly on monitoring the implementation of established planned assignments and technical and economic standards. Based on this, statistical accounting was focused on reflecting the intra-economic turnover of material and labor resources, their distribution and use, to the detriment of statistics in the social sphere, the credit and financial system, monetary circulation, services, the standard of living of the population and other important aspects of the development of society. Statistics were divorced from world practice, which complicated work in the field of international comparisons and, thereby, hampered the process of Kazakhstan’s integration into the economy of the world community.

2.2 Reform of Kazakhstan statistics

After the declaration of state independence of Kazakhstan on December 16, 1991, it became obvious that the statistical information system based on the methodology of the Balance of the National Economy (BNH) is fundamentally unable to adequately characterize the socio-political and socio-economic relations emerging in the country.

There was a need for a radical reform (and in essence, the creation of new) Kazakh statistics, which was due to the transformation of the economic and socio-political system, changes in the global and domestic situation, in particular:

Kazakhstan's acquisition of sovereignty necessitated the creation and establishment of a national statistical system corresponding to the status of an independent state;

Kazakhstan’s entry into the world community and the implementation of independent foreign economic activity required the introduction of classifications and coding systems for technical, economic and social information that meet the standards of world practice;

the orientation of the economy towards market relations, the development of the non-state sector, the emergence of a large number of new institutional units have led to the need to reform statistical observation methods, create modern statistical registers, and revise the system of economic indicators.

Thus, reforming statistics initially pursues the following three main goals:

1) creation and establishment of a national statistical system corresponding to the status of an independent state;

2) implementation of statistical classifications and standards accepted at the international level;

3) introduction of modern tools and methods of statistical observation.

The last decade of the 20th century. was marked by the adoption by Kazakhstan at the state level of three programs to improve statistics.

In the first, the State Program for the Restructuring of Statistics, Primary and Accounting (approved by Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated December 29, 1992 No. 1098), the main attention and resources were directed to solving the most fundamental problems.

Measures were taken to generate national statistics in the real sector of the economy, financial and banking sectors, comparable at the international level. A set of measures was carried out that laid the foundation for the transition to a system of national accounts, for the creation of new sections of statistics for the republic: foreign economic activity, balance of payments, prices, etc. In accordance with international requirements, other branches of statistics began to be reformed.

This made it possible to begin calculating the gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic indicators, compiling the country's balance of payments, and create a network for registering prices and tariffs for the development of price statistics. During the same period, the state register of economic entities was formed as a statistical tool for a market economy. A transition has been made from mainframe computers to personal computers.

As a result of the implementation of the first Statistics Reform Program, a national statistical system was formed that corresponded to the status of an independent state. It should be noted that, according to K.D. Baizhanova, a researcher of the history of the development of state statistics of the republic, Kazakhstan completed this task in the period from 1991 to 1994. Since 1995, i.e. Even during the implementation of the first Program, the republic began the second stage of reforming statistics, starting with the abolition of calculations of indicators of the balance of the national economy.

In the second program - the Program for Improving State Statistics in the Republic of Kazakhstan for 1996-1998. (approved by Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated October 8, 1996 No. 1244) the main directions were: a consistent transition from the sectoral principle of collecting information to enterprise statistics; introduction of new economic classifications and coding systems for technical and economic information, harmonized with international classifications; systemic reform of statistical observation methods to create conditions for the most complete satisfaction of society's needs for statistical information.

The implementation of the second program allowed:

continue the creation of national accounts and begin reforming sectoral statistics on the methodological basis of the 1993 UN SNA;

review the forms of financial and monetary statistics in connection with the introduction of a new accounting system;

begin the formation of a statistical register and the use of international classifications of economic activities and classifications of products and services in the development of statistical information;

begin the transition to sample methods of statistical observation using the example of agricultural statistics, as well as the transition to enterprise statistics using the example of small enterprises;

carry out the next stage of technical re-equipment of statistical bodies with modern computer technology and telecommunications and begin work on automating the formation of information resources of statistical bodies of the republic.

In May 1997, the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan adopted a new (second) Law “On State Statistics in the Republic of Kazakhstan”. (The first Law “On State Statistics in the Republic of Kazakhstan” was adopted in January 1992 at the VII Session of the Supreme Council of Kazakhstan).

In general, in 1996-1998. The reform of statistics was implemented on the principles of priority, maximum concentration of resources in the most important fundamental areas, which made it possible to significantly integrate into the global statistical community.

The third stage of reform was carried out in accordance with the Program for Improving State Statistics in the Republic of Kazakhstan for 1999-2005. (approved by Government Decree of November 19, 1998 No. 1180). The main goal of this Program was the systematic reform of the state statistics of Kazakhstan in order to most fully meet the needs of the country’s governing bodies, business circles and the public for objective statistical information on the socio-economic development of the country, regions, industries and sectors of the economy, comparable at the international level with similar information from other countries. countries

The program provided for the following priority areas for improving state statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 1999-2005:

introduction of a system of national statistical classifications harmonized with classifications accepted at the international level;

development of registers as the main tool for organizing statistical activities;

improvement of statistical observation methods and transition to enterprise statistics;

improving the system of indicators and methodology of macroeconomic and sectoral statistics in the real, external, government, financial and social sectors;

improving a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of Kazakhstan and its regions;

introduction of new information technologies and the formation of unified statistical information resources, including an automated classification bank, registers, integrated distributed databases;

improving the system of publication and dissemination of statistical data;

improving the system of continuous professional education of personnel in the field of statistics and information technology;

international cooperation in the field of statistics.

In 2002, a special mission of the IMF assessed the quality of Kazakhstan's statistical data with a view to the possibility of the republic joining the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). Previously, in accordance with Government Resolution No. 871 of September 11, 1998, the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, together with the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic, in April 1999 ensured that Kazakhstan became the first of the CIS countries to join the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS).

Based on the results of the IMF mission, reports were prepared that made recommendations to improve the quality of data and carry out a number of preparatory work so that by July 2003 Kazakhstan would join the SDDS. After all the work was completed on March 24, 2003, i.e. three months earlier than the scheduled date, Kazakhstan joined these standards. In accordance with the requirements of the SDDS, the Agency's website contains metadata, a Data Release Calendar and a National Economic Data Page, which is regularly updated in accordance with the Data Release Calendar.

Despite the high assessment of the quality of statistical data, the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan identified three problems and formulated three tasks, the solution of which would create conditions for further improving the quality of Kazakhstan statistics:

1) improving the organizational structure of the Agency: 2) strengthening the scientific and analytical nature of statistical activities;

3) use of administrative data sources.

In terms of improving the organizational structure of the Agency's system, the regional structure of the Agency's statistical organizations has already been optimized by joining the regional information and statistical centers (RIS) subordinate to the Agency (with the transfer of the function of collecting statistical data) to the regions (territorial divisions of the Agency). The functions of the ISC for data processing were transferred to the subsidiary state enterprises of the RSE "ICC of the Agency for Statistics".

On the issue of strengthening the scientific and analytical nature of statistical activities, it is proposed to recreate the Institute of Statistical Research and Forecasting, which existed as a subordinate organization of the State Statistics Committee (Statistics Agency) in the period from 1991 to 1997, which would allow more intensive reforms in the field of statistical methodology and analysis of the socio-economic situation in the country.

The use of administrative sources involves making appropriate changes to the legislative acts of the republic that affect the provision of data from administrative sources to state statistical bodies, as well as the development of national and departmental databases taking into account the interests of state statistics.

A general (global) assessment of the statistical system of Kazakhstan was also carried out in 2003 by Eurostat experts within the framework of the TACIS project. At the end of April 2004, the Agency received the final version of the experts' report1. The report notes that Kazakhstan's statistics have made great progress, and the quality of statistical recording has increased significantly. Nevertheless, experts formulate organizational and thematic recommendations for further improvement of the republic’s statistics, for the purpose of implementation of which the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Statistics developed an Action Plan at the beginning of 2004. The recommendations were also taken into account in the next (fourth) Program for Improving State Statistics for 2006-2008.

High-quality information support of government bodies with statistical data in order to monitor existing state, sectoral and regional programs and develop new programs in accordance with the “Kazakhstan-2030” Strategy assumes the further development of state statistics in Kazakhstan, which necessitates the development of new multi-year programs for improving state statistics.

As part of these programs, in order to ensure international comparability of data and ensure monitoring of commitments made at the international level, in particular the UN Millennium Declaration adopted by world leaders at the UN Millennium Summit1 in 20002, a transition to international standards in the field of statistics should be ensured. An example of a set of requirements for the transition to international standards in the field of statistics is the Summary (brief description) of Eurostat's statistical requirements."

In accordance with the Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated September 5, 2003 No. 903 “On the Action Plan for the Implementation of the Program of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2003-2006”, at the end of 2005 the Agency submitted for approval to the Government the next (fourth) Program for improving state statistics on 2006-2008.

The goal of the Program is to improve the quality of statistical information in the republic by introducing international standards in the field of statistics adopted in the European Union into the practice of statistical activities.

Achieving this goal is expected to be achieved by solving the following tasks:

1) transition to a modern level of coordination of the statistical system based on the phased implementation of quality management systems in all aspects of statistical activities and the creation of an adequate organizational and legal framework;

2) development and implementation of statistical methodologies and techniques in order to adapt international recommendations and standards at the national level;

3) introduction of a systematic approach to organizing and conducting analysis of statistical information to improve information support for the development and implementation of state and industry programs;

4) creation of a unified statistical information system “State Statistics” that meets the requirements of international standards for the collection, processing, storage and dissemination of data;

5) transition from receiving technical assistance to active international cooperation in accordance with the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics.

The main result of the implementation of the Program will be the formation of a modern national statistical system that ensures the production of statistical data in accordance with all fundamental international standards and recommendations.

2.3 Fundamental principles of official statistics

The Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, unanimously adopted by the UN Statistical Commission at a special session in New York on April 11-14, 19941 (Appendix 1), play an important role in the creation and development of reliable national statistical systems that are immune to negative political influences. .

Briefly, their content is as follows.

1. Formality. Official statistics of practical value are produced and disseminated on an objective basis by government statistical agencies to ensure respect for citizens' right to public information. This is because official statistics are an essential element of the information system of a democratic society, providing government agencies, businesses and the public with data on the economic, demographic, social and environmental situation.

2. Professionalism. In order to maintain confidence in official statistics, statistical agencies must make decisions regarding methods and procedures for collecting, processing, storing and presenting data in accordance with strictly professional considerations, including scientific principles and professional ethics.

3. Scientificity. To ensure correct interpretation of data, statistical agencies must provide information in accordance with scientific standards regarding statistical sources, methods and procedures.

Currently term "statistics" can be used in several meanings.

Firstly, statistics means special type of practical human activity on the collection, processing, accumulation and analysis of digital data characterizing the socio-economic phenomena and processes occurring in society and being the starting point for making various management decisions.

Secondly, statistics can act as special branch of scientific knowledge, which studies techniques for systematically observing mass phenomena in human social life, compiling numerical descriptions of them and scientific processing of these descriptions, developing methods used in statistical practice, that is, studying phenomena in the social life of various countries, territories, groups of people, etc. from their quantitative side.

AND, thirdly, statistics mean specific informational data, presented in reporting documents by enterprises, organizations, individuals, as well as information published in special collections and the press.

Statistics as a science represents an integral system of scientific disciplines: the theory of statistics, economic statistics and its branches, socio-demographic statistics and its branches.

Theory of statistics is the science of the most general principles and methods of statistical research of socio-economic phenomena. It develops the conceptual apparatus and system of categories of statistical science, considers methods of collecting, summarizing, summarizing and analyzing statistical data, i.e. general methodology for statistical research of mass social processes.

Thus, theory of statistics is the methodological basis of all industry statistics.

Economic statistics develops and analyzes synthetic indicators, including such macroeconomic indicators as gross national wealth (GNW), gross national income (GNI), gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP), etc., reflecting the state of the national economy; structure, proportions, relationship between industries and elements of social reproduction; examines the features of the location of productive forces, the composition and use of material, labor and financial resources; finally, it constructs and analyzes a general macrostatistical model of a market economy in the form of a system of national accounts (SNA).

Branches of economic statistics - statistics of industry, agriculture, construction, transport, communications, labor, natural resources, environmental protection, etc. - develop and study statistical indicators of the development of relevant industries.

Socio-demographic statistics form and analyze a system of indicators that comprehensively characterize various aspects of social conditions and lifestyle of the population; its industries - statistics of population, politics, culture, health care, science, education, law, etc.

The task of all industry statistics is the development of statistical indicators of relevant industries.

Statistics develops as unified science, and the development of each industry contributes to its improvement as a whole.

There is a close relationship between the science of statistics and practice: statistics uses practice data, generalizes and develops methods for conducting statistical research. In turn, in practical activities the theoretical principles of statistical science are applied to solve specific management problems.

Knowledge of statistics is necessary for a modern specialist to make decisions in stochastic conditions (when the analyzed phenomena are subject to the influence of chance), analysis of elements of a market economy, in collecting information in connection with the increase in business units and their types, auditing, financial management, forecasting.

Subject of statistics there are quantitative characteristics of various socio-economic phenomena and processes, patterns of their development and connections between them.

It is necessary to perceive these aspects in unity, since at each individual moment in time social and economic phenomena have certain sizes, levels, there are specific quantitative relationships between them (for example, changes in the level of wages, the population of the country on a certain date) and relationships (for example, the level of trade turnover is influenced by the level and structure of income of the population, including the level of wages). Consequently, the subject of statistical study can always be a collection of various varying phenomena that have common qualities and include all possible manifestations of the pattern under study . The main task of statistics is to identify these patterns based on the analysis of random events.

Under regularity understand the repeatability, sequence and order of changes in the phenomena and processes under consideration. Each individual phenomenon is considered by statistics as a special, special case of the pattern being studied. An example of a statistical pattern can be many demographic and economic trends, such as changes in life expectancy or birth rates, growth or decline in production.

Patterns characteristic of a particular population are revealed during mass observation due to the action of the law of large numbers . Law of Large Numbers- an objective law expressing the interaction of the random and the necessary, in which the joint manifestation of a large number of random factors leads to a natural and unambiguous result, practically independent of chance.

Thus, the following can be identified as the defining characteristics of statistics.

1. Not individual facts are studied, but mass social processes and phenomena based on the calculation of various statistical indicators (for example, the number of economically active population, the volume of production, the amount of real income of the population, etc.).

2. Processes and phenomena are considered in dynamics (for example, changes in the standard of living of the population, unemployment rates, economic growth rates, etc.).

3. Statistical research studies quantitative
side of mass social phenomena and evaluates the phenomena occurring in society in a specific place and at a specific point in time.

4. The structure (internal aspects) of social and mass phenomena is characterized.

5. Cause-and-effect relationships between phenomena are identified using a special methodology.

To study socio-economic phenomena, statistics uses its own methodology, that is, a system of techniques, methods and methods aimed at studying quantitative patterns manifested in the structure, dynamics and interrelations of socio-economic phenomena. The use of specific methods is determined by the tasks set and depends on the nature of the initial information. Statistical methods used comprehensively(systemically).

Basic statistical methods:

A) dialectical method of cognition lies in the fact that social phenomena and processes are considered in development,
relationships and causation. Dialectics is part of philosophy; this method is used to understand the real world. In accordance with it, statistics uses dialectical categories: quantity and quality, necessity and chance, causality and regularity, individual and mass, individual and general;

b) method of mass statistical observation ensures the completeness, generality and representativeness of the primary information obtained as a result of the study about individual units of the phenomenon being studied;

V) method of grouping and summarizing material allows you to identify socio-economic types in the population being studied and generalize statistical observation data;

G) tabular and graphical methods are used when presenting the results and results of statistical research of phenomena and objects.

Statistics is one of the oldest branches of knowledge, which arose on the basis of economic accounting.

The term "statistics" comes from the Latin word Status, which came into use in Germany in the mid-18th century. Statistics meant a set of information about the state and its attractions.

Statistics began to be taught as a science in 1749 by the German scientist Gottfried Achenwal.

The development of statistics proceeded in two directions:

1) descriptive school originated in Germany and was associated with the description of the sights of the state: territory, population, well-being of the state and citizens, etc. - without analyzing patterns and relationships between phenomena. The founder of the descriptive school was the German scientist Hermann Contring (1606 - 1681).

2) “political arithmetic” originated in England and was focused on identifying, based on a large number of observations, various patterns and relationships between the phenomena being studied. The founder of the school of this direction was William Petty (1623-1687).

The term "statistics" used in several meanings:a set of academic disciplines; branch of practice(“statistical accounting”); a set of digital information, characterizing the state of mass phenomena and processes of social life; statistical methods(including methods of mathematical statistics) used to study socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Statistics as a science is an integral system of scientific disciplines: the theory of statistics, economic statistics and its branches, socio-demographic statistics and its branches.

Theory of statistics is the science of the most general principles and methods of statistical research of socio-economic phenomena. It develops the conceptual apparatus and system of categories of statistical science, considers methods of collecting, summarizing, generalizing and analyzing statistical data, i.e., the general methodology for statistical research of mass social processes.

The theory of statistics is the methodological basis of all industry statistics.

Economic statistics- studies phenomena and processes in the field of economics, structure, proportions, relationships between industries and “elements of social reproduction.”

Statistics is a science that studies the quantitative side of mass socio-economic phenomena in the inextricable relationship of their qualitative side, as well as the quantitative expression of the patterns of development of processes in specific conditions of place and time.

Subject of statistics - the quantitative side of mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, which is studied inextricably with their qualitative side.

Objectives of Statistics- improvement of the statistical information base based on the development of a system of statistical indicators and the introduction of state statistical standards in order to provide government bodies and other structures with statistical data;

Theoretical basis statistics are provisions socio-economic theory, who consider the laws of development of socio-economic phenomena, clarify their nature and significance in the life of society. Based on knowledge of the provisions of economic theory, statistics analyzes specific forms of manifestation of categories, estimates the size of phenomena, and develops adequate methods for their study and analysis.

The study of statistics is based on a system of categories and concepts that reflect the most essential properties, characteristics, and relationships of phenomena and processes.

Statistics method

Statistical methods:

- mass observation method - collection of primary data on population units;

Summary and grouping consists of classification, generalization of the obtained primary data;

Methods for analyzing generalizing indicators make it possible to characterize the phenomenon being studied using statistical values: absolute, relative and average in order to establish relationships and patterns of development of processes.

In accordance with Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 9, 2004 No. 314, the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) was transformed into the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). The area of ​​activity of Rosstat is determined by the Regulations on the Federal State Statistics Service.

Functions of Rosstat:

Adoption of regulatory legal acts in the field of state statistical activities;

Providing government bodies with official statistical information on the socio-demographic, economic, environmental state of the country;

Exercising control in the field of state statistical activities.

The bodies of Rosstat are a three-level system with territorial bodies and subordinate organizations of the Federal Service. Rosstat manages the work of 75 territorial bodies of state statistics, which are in charge of statistical activities in the relevant territories of republics, territories, regions, autonomous okrugs and autonomous regions.

In addition, the Rosstat system includes:

GMC (Main Interregional Center for Processing and Dissemination of Statistical Information of the Federal State Statistics Service),

Scientific Research and Design and Technological Institute of Statistical Information System;

Research Institute for Problems of Socio-Economic Statistics, educational institutions (colleges and technical schools, training centers).

The collection and processing of statistical information can also be carried out by ministries and departments: the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, etc. (so-called departmental statistics).

All state statistics bodies ensure the provision of official statistical information to government bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Until 2003, the All-Union Classifier of Sectors of the National Economy (OKONKH) was used to describe the structure of the Russian economy. Instead, OKONH of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia developed the All-Russian Classifier of Types of Economic Activities (OKVED).

Based on OKVED codes, the types of activities of economic entities are identified in the process of their state registration and statistical accounting.

The study of statistical indicators allows us to give a general description of the volume and composition of the phenomenon, to identify and study statistical patterns. Such patterns are discovered during mass observation due to the action of the law of large numbers.

The law of large numbers is an objective law according to which the simultaneous action of a large number of random factors leads to a result almost independently of each case.

Those. patterns appear only in the mass of phenomena when data are generalized over a sufficiently large number of units.

The subject of statistics is studied using special techniques, methods and methods aimed at the quantitative study of mass social and social and economic phenomena and processes.

The use of specific methods in statistics is predetermined by the assigned tasks and depends on the initial information.

In the process of development of the science of statistics, its methods did not remain unchanged, but were enriched with new, increasingly complex techniques.

Statistics method(or statistical methodology) is a set of techniques, rules and principles for the statistical study of socio-economic phenomena, i.e. collecting information, processing it, calculating indicators and analyzing (evaluating) the received data.

Statistical methods:

The method of mass observations is the collection of primary data on population units.

Summary and grouping consists of classification and generalization of the obtained primary data.

Methods for analyzing generalizing indicators make it possible to characterize the phenomenon being studied using statistical values: absolute, relative and average in order to establish relationships and patterns of development of processes.

In the process of statistical research, statistical methods are usually applied in a comprehensive manner.

In statistics, as in any other science, mathematics is the means and instrument of research.

The difference between mathematics and statistics is that statistics obtains quantitative characteristics of phenomena in their inextricable connection with the qualitative side. Mathematics studies the quantitative side of phenomena without regard to quality.

In higher mathematics, there is a section of mathematical statistics, which deals with the development of mathematical methods, systematization of processing and research of cost data for scientific and practical conclusions.

Topic 1. Subject and method of statistical science

1. Subject and method of statistics

2.Basic concepts of statistics theory

Subject and method of statistics

The word “statistics” is of Latin origin (from status - state). In the Middle Ages, it meant the political state of the state. This term was introduced into science in the 18th century. German scientist Gottfried Achenwal. Actually, as a science, statistics arose only in the 17th century, but statistical accounting existed already in ancient times. Thus, it is known that even 5 thousand years BC. Population censuses were carried out in China, the military potential of different countries was compared, records were kept of the property of citizens in Ancient Rome, then of the population, household property, and lands in the Middle Ages.

At the origins of statistical science there were two schools - the German descriptive and the English school of political arithmetic.

Representatives of the descriptive school believed that the task of statistics is to describe the attractions of the state: territory, population, climate, religion, farming, etc. - only in verbal form, without numbers and without dynamics, i.e. without reflecting the peculiarities of the development of states in certain periods, but only at the time of observation. Prominent representatives of the descriptive school were G. Conring (1606–1661), G. Achenval (1719–1772), A. Büsching (1724–1793), and others.

Political arithmetics aimed to study social phenomena using numerical characteristics - measures of weight and number. This was a fundamentally new stage in the development of statistical science compared to the school of government, since statistics moved from describing phenomena and processes to their measurement and research, to the development of probable hypotheses for future development. Political arithmeticians saw the main purpose of statistics in the study of mass social phenomena and realized the need to take into account the requirements of the law of large numbers in statistical research, since a pattern can only appear if the volume of the analyzed population is sufficiently large. The most prominent representative and founder of this trend was V. Petty (1623–1687). History has shown that the last word in statistical science belonged to the school of political arithmeticians.

In the 19th century The teaching of the Belgian statistician A. Quetelet, the founder of the doctrine of average values, was developed. The mathematical direction in statistics developed in the works of the Englishmen F. Galton (1822–1911) and K. Pearson (1857–1936), W. Gosset (1876–1937), better known under the pseudonym Student, R. Fisher ( 1890–1962) etc.

The progress of statistical methodology was facilitated by the works of Russian statisticians - A.A. Chuprov (1874–1926), V.S. Nemchinov (1894–1964), S.G. Strumilina (1877–1974) and others.

The development of statistical science and the expansion of the scope of practical statistical work have led to a change in the content of the very concept of “statistics”. Currently, this term is used in three meanings:

1) statistics is understood as a branch of practical activity that aims to collect, process, analyze and publish mass data on a wide variety of phenomena in social life (in this sense, “statistics” acts as a synonym for the phrase “statistical accounting”);

2) statistics refers to digital material that serves to characterize any area of ​​social phenomena or the territorial distribution of some indicator;

3) statistics is a branch of knowledge, a special scientific discipline and, accordingly, an academic subject in higher and secondary specialized educational institutions.

Like any science, statistics has its own subject of study; statistics studies the quantitative side of mass social phenomena in inextricable connection with their qualitative side, studies the quantitative expression of the laws of social development in specific conditions of place and time.

Statistics studies its subject using certain categories, i.e. concepts that reflect the most general and essential properties, characteristics, connections and relationships of objects and phenomena of the objective world.

Basic concepts of statistics theory

1. A statistical population is a set of units of the phenomenon being studied, united by a single qualitative basis, a common connection, but differing from each other in individual characteristics. These are, for example, a set of households, a set of families, a set of enterprises, firms, associations, etc.

A set is called homogeneous if one or more of the essential characteristics of its objects being studied are common to all units.

A set that includes phenomena of different types is considered heterogeneous. A population may be homogeneous in one respect and heterogeneous in another. In each individual case, the homogeneity of the population is established by conducting a qualitative analysis, clarifying the content of the social phenomenon being studied.

2. A characteristic is a qualitative feature of a unit of a population. According to the nature of the display of the properties of the units of the studied population, the signs are divided into two main groups:

characteristics that have a direct quantitative expression, for example, age, work experience, average earnings, etc. They can be discrete or continuous;

characteristics that do not have direct quantitative expression. In this case, individual units of the population differ in their content (for example, professions - the nature of work: teacher, carpenter, seamstress-machine operator, etc.). Such features are usually called attributive (in philosophy, “attribute” is an integral property of an object). In the case when there are variants of a characteristic that are opposite in meaning, they speak of an alternative characteristic (yes, no). For example, products may be suitable or defective (not suitable); for representatives of certain age groups there is a probability of surviving or not surviving to the next age group; each person may be married or not, etc.

A feature of statistical research is that it studies only varying characteristics, i.e. characteristics that take on different meanings (for attributive, alternative characteristics) or have different quantitative levels in individual units of the population.

3. A statistical indicator is a quantitative assessment of the properties of the phenomenon being studied. Statistical indicators can be divided into two main types: accounting and evaluation indicators (sizes, volumes, levels of the phenomenon being studied) and analytical indicators (relative and average values, indicators of variation, etc.).

Statistics studies its subject using its own specific method. The general basis for the development and application of statistical methodology is the dialectical method of cognition, according to which social phenomena and processes are considered in development, mutual connection and causality. The method of statistics is a whole set of techniques using which statistics studies its subject. It includes three groups of methods proper: the method of mass observations, the method of groupings, and the method of generalizing indicators.

Statistical observation consists of collecting primary statistical material, scientifically organized registration of all significant facts related to the object under consideration. This is the first stage of any statistical research.

The grouping method makes it possible to systematize and classify all facts collected as a result of mass statistical observation. This is the second stage of statistical research.

The method of generalizing indicators allows you to characterize the phenomena and processes being studied using statistical values ​​- absolute, relative and average. At this stage of statistical research, the relationships and scales of phenomena are identified, the patterns of their development are determined, and forecast estimates are given.

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