The strongest earthquakes in Belarus. Mexico shook: can a strong earthquake happen in Belarus too? Why is this happening

Our seismologists commented on the largest earthquakes of recent months and made a forecast

Last night off the coast of Mexico there was a powerful earthquake - the strongest in the last 100 years. It even caused tsunami waves. Not everyone knows that the seismic activity of the Earth is also being studied in our country. The correspondent of "R" met with scientists and found out what "amazing" news our planet can expect in the near future.

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The element has faded away. Not so long ago, we empathized with Turkey and Greece, where there was a strong earthquake. Scientists warn that in the near future, Turkey is waiting for the most powerful tremors up to 9 points. No wonder since the end of July it has been shaking at least eight times. Not everyone knows that the seismic activity of the Earth is also being studied in our country. Around the clock, sensors from 17 seismic stations capture every beat of the planet's pulse.

Life is not without upheavals

Do you know that 65 earthquakes were recorded in Belarus last year alone? Moreover, employees of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences are not at all surprised if people call them with complaints about the shaking of dishes or the swaying of a light bulb hanging from the ceiling. The most seismically active region in the country is Soligorsk. This is where most of these calls come from.

The first perceptible earthquake in the Soligorsk region occurred in 1978, then shook in 1983, 1985 and twice in 1998. The magnitude of the strongest of them did not exceed 3.5. The head of the department of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences, candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences Tatyana Aronova recalls: after such events, they always go to the place of tremors. Eyewitnesses are being interviewed, buildings are being examined for damage. In many ways, seismic activity in the Soligorsk region is determined by the extraction of potash salts. In general, human activity and earthquakes are directly related - a man-made factor. Therefore, as soon as the BelNPP began to be built, we had a local network for observations in this area.

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This is noise - interference from transport, from the work of enterprises. But this, in fact, the earthquake itself. There are two geophysical observatories on our territory - in Pleschenitsy and in Naroch. Broadband stations have been installed that "catch" all the natural shocks that occur on the globe. Specialists are on duty here day and night.

And how can you catch an earthquake that occurred on the other side of the Earth?

Of course, you will not feel it, but the instruments - yes. After an earthquake, seismic waves "fly around" the surface of the globe several times. Our equipment captures all world earthquakes with magnitude 5 and above, in Europe - with magnitude 4 and above. People can feel the effects of these earthquakes at a distance of 500 kilometers from the epicenter, depending on the strength of the earthquake, but no more.

Anxious pulse of the planet

In 2004, Belarusians experienced the waves from the earthquake that occurred in the Kaliningrad region. Most of all, those who lived on high floors had to worry. They felt the strong rocking of the building, saw how objects fell. But Tatyana Ivanovna reassures that you should not be afraid. Most likely, there will be no strong earthquakes in our country: its territory is located on an ancient platform, in a zone of weak seismic activity.

But, for example, Turkey, Greece and Italy were very unlucky in this sense. We envy their sea air and warm sun, but we do not think that every day they live like on a powder keg. These are extremely seismically active points of the planet. In such areas, even buildings are built with this feature in mind.

Tatyana Ivanovna points to the map:

Last year it was restless in the central part of Italy. Earthquakes swarm for almost a year, both strong and weak.

SIGHT

Tatyana ARONOVA, Head of the Department of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences:

I have been studying seismology since 1973. It so happened that she herself witnessed the strongest earthquake in 1966 in Tashkent. My family lived there. I was still just a child. The shocks started early in the morning. I remember when my mother woke me up. It was five o'clock in the morning. We ran out into the street. Believe it or not, the earth seemed to glow. The central part of Tashkent was completely destroyed. Our house miraculously survived. I remember that for a month they did not go into the houses. I had to sleep outside. Even school was cancelled.

Until now, there are many questions why seismologists do not predict such events in advance. Unfortunately, this is still beyond fantasy. There are seismological centers in Great Britain, France and Russia, where information is collected from all seismic stations in the world and where special bases and maps are compiled. By the way, we also provide information from our stations there. In areas where there is high seismic activity, they are engaged in earthquake forecasts. Yes, it is possible to determine by certain factors that it is about to happen. For example, if there are many weak shocks in the territory. Yes, you can predict the approximate strength. But setting the exact time is already a problem. And even modern digital technology is not helping us yet.

There was an unfortunate false forecast in China in 1975. Scientists were waiting for an earthquake with a magnitude above 7, raised an alarm, evacuated people, stopped production, but the earthquake did not happen. A year later, seismologists again warned the authorities about a possible disaster. There was no response, and as a result there was a very strong earthquake with destruction and casualties.

10 facts about earthquakes

1. About a million earthquakes occur on our planet every year, but most of them are too weak to pose any threat.

2. Quite dangerous earthquakes occur on Earth on average twice a month, but not always in populated areas.

3. An earthquake on the ocean floor can cause a devastating tsunami.

4. The Great Chinese Earthquake in 1556 holds the record for the number of victims - it claimed the lives of more than eight hundred thousand people.

5. The average earthquake lasts about a minute. The longest recorded earthquake occurred in 2004 in the Indian Ocean, it lasted almost ten minutes.

6. The maximum recorded speed of underground waves is 360 kilometers per hour, comparable to a racing car.

7. Rats can feel the threat of an earthquake in advance.

8. The earthquake in Japan in 2011, the tsunami waves after which destroyed the nuclear power plant in the city of Fukushima, was so strong that it increased the oscillation of our planet around its axis by sixteen centimeters.

9. After the earthquake in 2015 in Nepal, the height of Everest decreased by two and a half centimeters.

10. The most earthquake-prone countries in the world are Japan and Chile.

Ghost.evturistznak.ru

The territory of Belarus, in accordance with seismotectonic zoning, belongs to a weakly active zone. Within the study area, according to literary and archival data, as well as instrumental observations (bulletins of seismic stations Minsk, Naroch, Soligorsk, Brest, Gomel, Glushkevichi), seismic events with magnitude M< 4,5. В каталог сейсмических событий Беларуси с исторических времен по 2006 г. вошло 863 сейсмических события.

The first mention of an earthquake on May 10, 1230 is in the Laurentian and Nikon chronicles. The earthquake caused the destruction of stone churches. On December 22, 1887, an earthquake with a magnitude of up to 6-7 points occurred in the Borisov district, accompanied by a strong rumble and flying glasses. Data are also given on other earthquakes near Belarus in the vicinity of Bialystok on January 8, 1808, in the current Chernihiv region - on July 23, 1905. According to the Nasha Niva magazine and the Lithuanian Courier newspaper, on December 15, 1909, an earthquake occurred on the territory of the current Ostrovets region, as a result of which a moat up to one verst long was formed on the surface of the earth.

The Carpathian earthquakes are noticeably felt in Belarus. An earthquake with an epicenter in the Vrancea region on March 4, 1977 with a magnitude of 7.1 caused an uneven shaking with an intensity of 4-5 points in Belarus, and in some areas (western and northwestern parts of the republic, northeast of the Pripyat trough) the earthquake was not felt. Apparently, this is due to the deep structure of the earth's crust, with the existence of waveguide channels that favor the propagation of seismic waves in certain directions, in which the waves are anomalously attenuated.

On May 10, 1978, an earthquake with an intensity of 5 points occurred in the Soligorsk region. It was registered by seismic stations "Minsk" and "Obninsk".

During 1983-1985. Seismic events (30-40 events per year) were registered by the short-period installation of the Soligorsk console, as well as by the Turtle installations.

During the entire observation period Six earthquakes occurred on the territory of Belarus, which had a tangible character. Their characteristics are given in table 9.1.

A map of the epicenters of seismic events is shown in Figure 9.24. It is based on the catalog of seismic events in Belarus for 1887-2006. The size of the circles on the map corresponds to earthquakes of energy classes from 7 to 12.

An analysis of the position of the epicenters shows a pronounced unevenness of their distribution over the area. Only single shocks were observed in the north of Belarus, which is connected, on the one hand, with the impossibility of determining the coordinates of many weak earthquakes (only two seismic stations operate in this territory), and on the other hand, with low seismic activity. At the same time, the tangible historical earthquakes of 1887 and 1908 occurred in the northern part of the region. A high concentration of epicenters is observed in the southern part of Belarus within the Pripyat trough. Areas of increased seismicity are also located to the north of it.

A comparison of the distribution of earthquake epicenters with the fault tectonics of the region shows that the sources of shocks are located in the zone of faults of various types and directions, and, as will be shown below, tend mainly to modern active faults laid down in the pre-platform time.

In the second half of the 90s of the last century, work was carried out on the general seismic zoning of the Belarusian-Baltic region (R.E. Aizberg, A.G. Aronov, R.G. Garetsky). The general seismic zoning of a territory is understood as a complex of geological and geophysical, seismological, seismotectonic studies to identify zones of possible occurrence of earthquake sources (WHO), both local and remote, to determine the seismological characteristics of these zones and calculate the intensity of seismic impact in points (MSK-64 scales ) in the study area for average soil conditions (taking into account the frequency of shaking).

Comparison of the distribution of epicenters of historical and tangible instrumentally recorded earthquakes with tectonic faults in the region shows that seismic events are mainly manifested in fault zones, especially in areas of their intersection. Thus, the epicenter of the earthquake that occurred on July 8, 1980 (M = 2.5) is located 30 km east of the tangible historical earthquake of 1887 and gravitates towards the Chashnik pre-platform superregional fault. According to the seismotectonic

Table 9.1 Perceptible tremors of the earth's crust on the territory of Belarus (Aronov, 2007)

Figure 9 24 - Map of seismicity and main faults in the territory of Belarus for the period 1887-2008 (Aronov, 2007):

1 - magnitude of earthquakes; 2 epicenters of historical earthquakes; 3 - perceptible instrumentally recorded earthquakes; 4 - city; 5 - seismic station; 6 - state border; 7-8 - faults penetrating the cover: 7 - super-regional, limiting the largest supra-order structures, 8 - regional and sub-regional; 9-10 - faults that do not penetrate into the cover: 9 - super-regional, delimiting the largest regions of different age of processing, 10 - regional and sub-regional; 11 - faults: 1 - Oshmyansky, 2 - Naliboksky, 3 - Svis-lochekiy, 4 - Divinsky, 5 - North-Ratnovsky, 6 - South-Ratnovsky, 7 - North-Pripyatsky, 8 - Surazhsky, 9 - Lyakhovichsky, 10 - Rechitsky, 11 - Chervonoslobodsko-Malodushinsky, 12 - Kopatkevichsky, 13 - Shestovichsky, 14 - Skolodinsky, 15 - Narovlyansky, 16 - Yelsky, 17 - South Pripyatsky, 18 - Loevsky, 19 - North Dneprovsky, 20 - South Dneprovsky, 21 - Polotsky, 22 - Losto-Kosky, 23 - Korelichsky, 24 - Vyzhevsko-Minsky, 25 - Borisovsky, 26 - Chashniksky, 27 - Beshenkovichi, 28 - Stokhodsko-Mogilevsky, 29 - Krichevsky, 30 - Chechersky, 31 - Perzhansko-Simonovichsky, 32 - Vitebsk.

On the map of the west of the Belarusian-Baltic region, the earthquake is confined to the Minsk seismogenic zone, its Borisov seismogenic subzone, within which earthquakes with a magnitude Mmax = 3.7 can occur. The epicenter of the earthquake that occurred on August 29, 1990 (M = 2.1) is located in the northern part of the territory near the intersection zone of the preplatform superregional faults - Polotsk (sublatitudinal strike) and Korelichi (submeridional strike), to the east of the Daugavpils seismogenic zone. Within its limits, earthquakes with a magnitude of 4.5 can occur. The epicenter of the perceptible earthquake that occurred on March 16, 1998 (M = 1.9) is confined to the intersection of the Lyakhovichi regional fault and the Stokhodsko-Mogilev superregional pre-platform fault. It is controlled by the North Pripyat seismogenic zone, its Luban seismogenic subzone, within which earthquakes with a magnitude of up to 4.0 can occur. The epicenter of the earthquake that occurred on May 16, 1999 (M = 2.5) is located at the western end of the Skolodinsk regional fault. It is confined to the Central Pripyat seismogenic zone, within which earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.5 can occur. The epicenter of the earthquake that occurred on May 13, 2005, was localized to the west of the junction zone of the Borisov and Stokhod-Mogilev super-regional pre-platform faults. It is confined to the Minsk seismogenic zone, which is part of the Svisloch potentially seismogenic subzone, within which earthquakes with a magnitude of up to 3.7 can occur.

Features of the spatial distribution of earthquakes in the junction zone of the northwestern part of the Pripyat trough and the Belarusian anteclise were studied on the basis of earthquake data for 1983-2006. Comparison of the space-time distribution of earthquake sources with the tectonic characteristics of the region shows that most of the faults here are highly active in seismic terms. The predominant number of weak seismic shocks is concentrated along faults of various generations and directions or their links, i.e., weak earthquakes generally trace the fault. Earthquakes are observed to be associated with the following faults: pre-platform submeridional strike - Stokhodsko-Mogilev, Krichev, Vyzhev-Minsk and Hercynian synrift sublatitudinal strike - North Pripyat, Lyakhovichi, Rechitsa, Chervonoslobodsko-Malodushinsky, Kopatkevichsky, Shestovichsky, Skolodinsky. Individual earthquakes fall into the intersection zones of platform sublatitudinal and preplatform submeridional faults.

The question of the nature of the Soligorsk earthquakes is very relevant in scientific and practical terms. Taking into account the long-term changes in the stress state of the geological environment caused by the excavation and movement of rocks and their storage in salt dumps, it can be assumed that the Soligorsk earthquakes are associated with induced seismicity and are predominantly technogenic in nature. However, manifestations of seismicity outside the zone of industrial workings serve as a sign that from a certain time the seismic process begins to be controlled mainly by regional geodynamic factors and to a lesser extent depends on the work of mining enterprises. This statement is substantiated by at least three facts: firstly, by the "gravitation" of the main mass of epicenters to the areas of intersection of fault zones, including the deep pre-platform Stokhodsko-Mogilev zone. Secondly, the almost complete lack of connection between the intensity of underground mining and seismicity. Thirdly, the vast majority of events take place outside the mine fields. This is a characteristic phenomenon for induced mine seismicity, when, as a result of the evolution of the seismic process, the area of ​​epicenters expands over time. For example, the dynamics of spatiotemporal migration of the zone of grouping of earthquake epicenters manifests itself as follows. Grouping zone of earthquake epicenters in 1983 and 1988 is located in the western part of the epicentral region and is scattered along deep faults: Stokhodsko-Mogilev, Rechitsa, Lyakhovichi.

Based on the synthesis of new seismological and geological data, the following are currently identified: the Borisov seismogenic subzone with a magnitude M max = 3.7 (an earthquake that occurred on July 8, 1980, with M = 2.5); Oshmyany seismogenic zone with magnitude M max = 4.5 (earthquake that occurred on February 27, 1987, with M = 2.5); Luban seismogenic subzone with magnitude Мmax = 4.0 (perceptible earthquake that occurred on March 16, 1998, with М = 1.9); Central Pripyat seismogenic zone with magnitude M max = 3.5 (earthquake that occurred on May 16, 1999, with M = 2.5); Svisloch potential seismogenic subzone with magnitude M max = 3.7 (earthquake that occurred on May 13, 2005, with M = 2.8).

The earthquake in Japan on March 11 excited not only the Japanese, but the entire globe. Throughout history, scientists have recorded a couple of earthquakes of this magnitude - 12 points.

This year our planet has already been shaken by the strongest earthquakes with a magnitude above 7 on the coast of Central Chile on January 2, on the Loyalty Islands on January 13 and in southwestern Pakistan on January 18.

Is it safe in Belarus? This question was answered by the head of the department of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences Tatiana Aronova.

- Is Belarus in a seismically active zone?

Belarus is located in the western part of the East European platform. And the platform is a place quite stable and motionless. So our country is in a zone of weak seismic activity.

In Europe, the southern regions, the so-called Trans-Asian seismic belt, are most susceptible to seismic impact. A lot of earthquakes happen in Turkey, Greece, Italy - all over mediterranean.

For us, the most painful point is the earthquakes that occur in Romania. The centers originate in the Eastern Carpathians (Vrancea zone), where deep-focus earthquakes occur, the waves from which reach Belarus. There were such earthquakes in 1940, 1977, 1986. The waves of these earthquakes swept across Belarus and even reached Moscow.

Floods do not threaten us either, in the worst case, spring flooding. We are far enough from the coastal zone to be subject to such cataclysms.

- But we had earthquakes?

There were 9 earthquakes in total on the territory of Belarus. 4 of them are historical and 5 are instrumentally recorded. Historical earthquakes were recorded from the words of residents who felt the rocking of objects on the earth's surface, the clanging of dishes, the creaking of furniture and floors. Based on this information, calculations were carried out and the magnitude of earthquakes and the maximum number of points were determined. Those earthquakes that were registered by instruments in Belarus were observed in the Soligorsk mining region. These are earthquakes in 1978, 1983, 1985 and two in 1998. The strength of these earthquakes was small - within magnitude 3. The last two were generally weak, but their depth was small, so people on the surface felt the swaying and movement of objects. In Soligorsk, there is a redistribution of stresses in the earth's crust due to mining, which provokes tectonic activity

- We had an earthquake in which buildings collapsed?

No, there have never been destructive earthquakes on the territory of Belarus. In 2004, waves from the earthquake that occurred in the Kaliningrad region were felt in Belarus. In the central zone, it caused destruction and even there were breaks in the earth's crust, while we had only effects. Those who at that time were on high floors felt a strong rocking of the building, saw objects falling, but nothing more. The higher you are from the ground, the stronger the feeling of an earthquake will be, the stronger it will sway. On the territory of Belarus, neither in the historical period, nor now, strong destructive earthquakes were observed and, most likely, will not be, since we are on the platform territory, and, moreover, on the old continental plate.

- Are there zones of seismic activity in Belarus?

Based on the data that we receive from five seismic stations (Minsk, Naroch, Polotsk, Mogilev and Soligorsk), we have compiled a map of the seismotectonic activity of the territory of Belarus. We call seismically active zones those zones in the region of which earthquakes have already occurred or those in which they are theoretically possible. On this map, taking into account the fault tectonics and earthquakes that we happened to observe, active zones are highlighted where seismic activity can be. But whatever it is, there can be no earthquakes on our territory even with a magnitude higher than 4.5.

They will not reach us in sensations, but the instruments sense it. Seismic waves run around the surface of the globe several times after an earthquake. For two hours after the shocks in Japan, our instruments showed and recorded seismic waves, but we did not feel anything. Our devices record all the world's earthquakes with magnitude 5 and above, in Europe - with magnitude 4 and above. People can feel the effects of these earthquakes up to 500 kilometers from the epicenter, depending on the magnitude of the earthquake, but no more.

- With what accuracy do modern scientists predict earthquakes?

In the UK, France and Russia there are seismological centers that collect information from all seismic stations in the world, data from Belarusian stations are also presented there. Seismological bases and maps are compiled there. Countries with high seismic activity are engaged in earthquake forecasts. By indirect and calculated factors, they try to determine the place, strength and time of earthquakes. But, as practice has shown, these calculations are justified only in terms of area and strength. At present, no one can give such information for sure. There was an unfortunate false forecast in China in 1975. Scientists were waiting for an earthquake with a magnitude above 7, declared an alarm, evacuated people, but the earthquake did not happen. But a year later there was a very strong earthquake with destruction and casualties, the Chinese could not predict it.

Scientists of all countries in the seismological forecast pay great attention to foreshock activity (foreshocks are earthquakes before the main shock, and aftershocks are earthquakes after the main shock), but it is possible to predict an earthquake only for several days. What will happen in the source of the earthquake, and even more so the mechanism of movement - no one will know this until the earthquake itself occurs. Each earthquake has its own mechanism - thrust, fault or shift.

Recently, strong earthquakes have occurred quite often: last year - in Haiti, this year - in Chile, Pakistan, Japan. What is happening to the Earth?

The earth is an organism that is constantly in motion. Therefore, earthquakes are inevitable, they are directly related to the geological evolution of the planet.

One more moment. Everyone around says that the earth's axis has shifted greatly after the earthquake in Japan, but it is already in constant motion. Before this earthquake, there were two strong earthquakes in Chile. This is a country of another continent. That earthquake could have pushed the axle one way, but this earthquake pushed it the other way. It turns out that they balance each other.

Earthquakes in Belarus

Strength, MSK-64 scores

Borisov

Mogilev

Mogilev

Gudogai village,

Soligorsk

40 km from Soligorsk

10 km from the town of Glusk, Soligorsk district

Pogost village (10 km from Soligorsk)

Iserno village (13 km from Soligorsk)

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Points - the effect of an earthquake on the surface of the earth.

Magnitude is the strength at the location of an earthquake.

INTERESTING TO KNOW

The strongest earthquakes in the last two centuries

Magnitude Where and when

9.5 Chile 1960

9.2 Prince William Sound, Alaska 1964

9.1 North Sumatra, Indonesia 2004

9.0 East coast of Honshu, Japan 2011

9.0 Kamchatka, Russia 1952

8.8 Colombia - Ecuador 1906.

8.8 Coast of Chile 2010

8.7 Rat Islands, Aleuts 1965

8.6 Assam - Tibet 1950

8.6 Andreyanovsky Islands, Alaska 1957

8.6 North Sumatra, Indonesia 2005

HAVE A QUESTION

Is the Belarusian nuclear power plant being built in a seismically active zone?

The earthquake that occurred in the Ostrovets region in 1908 had a magnitude of 6-7. Protection at a nuclear power plant under construction is provided for above these values, - Vladimir Gorin, deputy chief engineer of the nuclear power plant construction directorate, comments to Komsomolskaya Pravda. - In general, there are still doubts whether there was an earthquake at all. At that time, there were almost no seismic stations, all descriptions were from the words of eyewitnesses. Some scientists are still arguing whether it was their own Gudogai earthquake or echoes of the Italian earthquake, which provoked powerful aftershocks throughout Europe.

During the construction of projects of this type, sensors and seismic protection systems are used that prevent damage to equipment during an earthquake of more than 8 magnitudes. In Japan, seismic protection has fulfilled its function completely, the reactors were shut down automatically. The problem arose not during, but after the earthquake, when a tsunami wave passed and destroyed the cooling water supply system. Our project has all degrees of protection against all earthquakes that may be in our seismic active zone. There is no need to make any adjustments.

12:37 / 18.12.2016

A little about terms

– What seismic studies were carried out at the Ostrovets site? Not far from Ostrovets, earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 to 7 on the Richter scale were recorded in 1887, 1893, 1896, 1908 and 1987. Lithuanian scientists have found serious shortcomings in the studies of the Ostrovets site.

This is exactly what the Minister of Energy of Lithuania Rokas Masiulis put it, which amused the experts, since the wording “points on the Richter scale” indicates an illiterate formulation of the question: the Richter scale measures not the intensity, but the magnitude of an earthquake - a value that characterizes the energy released during an earthquake in the form of seismic waves .

The intensity depends on the strength (magnitude), the depth of the focus and the distance to the epicenter. That is, earthquakes of the same magnitude can have different intensities and feel differently. The source of an earthquake with a magnitude of 6 will show different intensity on the surface of the Earth, depending on whether it is at a depth of 20 km or 200 km.

For a better understanding, we can imagine that we blew up 1 kg of TNT, first at a depth of 1 meter, and then at a depth of 100 meters. The energy released as a result of the explosion of 1 kg of TNT will be the same value and will be related to the magnitude on the Richter scale. But the shaking of the earth on the surface and the destruction caused will be measured in MSK-64 or EMS-98 points - and, of course, the consequences of the two explosions will be different.

Historical earthquakes in Belarus

A catalog of earthquakes has been published in Belarus, which includes data from 1887, describing more than 1200 earthquakes (seismic events) with a magnitude of no more than 4.5. It also includes well-known historical earthquakes.
As a rule, the study of seismicity is divided into two periods: historical and instrumental.

Historical seismicity is based on information collected from various literary and archival sources.

The organization of instrumental observations dates back to the beginning of the 20th century, when the first seismic stations for recording earthquakes appeared.

Let's choose from the catalog those of them that the Lithuanian minister spoke about:

- 12/10/1887 - a historical earthquake in the Borisov region;

- 08/29/1893 - a historical earthquake in the Mogilev region;

- 11/12/1896 - a historical earthquake in the Mogilev region;

- 12/28/1908 - a historical earthquake on the Serzhantsy farm near Gudogai.

On February 27, 1987, in the Ostrovets region, 10 km east of Ostrovets, in a forest belt near the Losha River, an instrumental earthquake with a magnitude of 2 occurred. The distance to the site of the future BelNPP is 15 km. But this earthquake could only be determined by instruments.

It is clear that the earthquake of December 28, 1908 causes the greatest concern.

The only source of information about him is an article in the Nasha Niva newspaper No. 3 dated January 15 (28), 1909, signed by “Selyanynam”

"Art. Gudagay, Vilna parish Ashmyany pav. 17 dzekabra and 5 gadzіnі - it was yamno, the wife of the renter of the manor The sergeants woke up the thunder. Schools rang in the windows and it was a relief that the house was falling. Ale ўsyo ўtsikhla; Hutka jumped and renter, so that he would jump and tell about the barn and tell that he was like a rumble, the thunder of the people in the sky, the earth trembled and lived on the knees. Ran out of the barn, it’s not far away for the inhabitants of a row of lumps, kators tsyagnuўsya musіts z varstu from sleepy night to the paludne-departure.

I think that the geta was once such a terrifying trasennaya land, which blew up in Italy a few languid garades and without a face of vesaks. Getae zemlitrasenne, as it seems, was called in some small towns of the Vilna province.”

Serzhanty's farm was located three kilometers from the Gudogai station by rail in the direction of Vilnius. It is 17 km from the BelNPP under construction.

An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 (Richter) occurred at about 5:20 on December 28, 1908 in the Strait of Messina between Sicily and the Apennine Peninsula. As a result, the cities of Messina, Reggio Calabria and Palmi were destroyed, and more than twenty settlements in the coastal strip in Sicily and Calabria were affected by the earthquake.

Doubtful earthquake

In Italy, the destruction and the dead were on both sides of the Strait of Messina. No information is available on damage in the rest of Italy.

In the direction of the Serzhanty farm, which is about 1,950 km from Messina in a straight line, there are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Belarus. No earthquakes were observed in these areas. That is, because of the huge distance, what happened near Gudogai has nothing to do with Messina.

According to the newspaper publication "Nasha Niva", information about the earthquake came only from two residents of the Serzhanty farm - the tenant and his wife.

Nearby is the Gudogai station of the Libavo-Romenskaya railway - one of the most important highways of the Russian Empire, connecting the Baltic (the port of Libava, now Liepaja, Latvia) with the left-bank Ukraine (the city of Romny, Sumy region). This section of the Libavo-Romenskaya road was built in 1873 - 13 years after the opening of railway traffic in the Russian Empire.

At the beginning of the 20th century, the railway was the main channel for transmitting information. Telegraph lines were always laid along important railways, and later telephone lines. The level of technical literacy of railway transport workers was then much higher than that of rural residents. The railway workers of the Gudogai station, which is only 2 km away, must have paid attention to the “terrible thunder” and the earthquake. But for some reason it didn't happen.

In the village of Ostrovets, which is 6 km away, the earthquake was not noticed. In Oshmyany, which is 20 km away, the earthquake was not noticed. In the provincial center of Vilna (Vilnius), which is 48 km away, they also did not feel anything.

In Nasha Niva it is written that the tenant "ran out of the barn, ... saw nearby a shallow ditch, which stretched for a verst in the direction from north to southeast."

If you look from the north to the southeast from the place where the Serzhants mansion stood, then in 100-150 meters there will be a railway. How the ditch could stretch across the railroad without damaging it is incomprehensible. A moat on the ground is already a serious earthquake, which was supposed to damage not only the buildings, but also the nearby railway, which is very significant for the Russian Empire, causing train delays. It is worth recalling that at that time, clocks were compared on the work of the railways in the Russian Empire, and any incident on the railway was immediately reported in the newspapers.

All that is known about the earthquake at the Serzhanty farm is a small note a month after the incident, where the information comes from only two farmers.

This note was discovered in the 1970s by Professor Adam Maldis, a historian, philologist, writer, a native of the Ostrovetsky region, while working on the book “Astravechchyna, the land of a gift ...”. Adam Maldis gave information about the earthquake to the Belarusian Academy of Sciences, where the Gudogai earthquake was officially registered as historical.

In the book “Astravechchyna, land of a gift…” Adam Maldis doubts whether the Gudogai earthquake really happened: The old-timers don’t remember a thing, but the raid didn’t succeed.” When Adam Iosifovich was working on the book, he talked with the inhabitants of the Ostrovetsky region, who remembered the year 1909. As follows from his words, he, having read about the earthquake, doubted it, and was probably the first person who tried to find the moat mentioned in the newspaper.

Nevertheless, the publication was, and if so, then in the National Atlas of Belarus the earthquake was noted as historical, having determined its characteristics by the description (magnitude - 4.5, intensity - seven points).

The most logical explanation for such a strange Gudogai earthquake is as follows: someone, perhaps the owner of the Serzhanty manor, learned from the newspapers about the earthquake in Messina, which became famous throughout the world, and decided to glorify his Serzhanty manor. Say, we are not worse. And he came up with the idea that in his farm Serzhants there was also the same earthquake. A moat also “formed” on the ground - however, at the same time, all the buildings remained intact and even the glass did not break.

In 1988, when studying the seismotectonic conditions of the Ignalina NPP area, specialists from the Institute of Physics of the Earth (Moscow), led by Viktor Shteinberg, together with Belarusian and Lithuanian colleagues, went to the site of the Serzhantsy farm in search of traces of an earthquake on the ground, but they were not found there.

SergeantsWithtoday

The place of the former farm was dug up by treasure hunters who dug here, judging by the state of the pits, about 10-15 years ago - the time when archival topographic maps began to appear on the Internet in the public domain.

The fact that there was once housing here is indicated by planted old lindens, lilac bushes. Of all the buildings of the Serzhanty farm, only a solid cellar with a brick vault, a vestibule, the walls of which are made of stone and brick, as well as a staircase made of hewn boulders, has been preserved. If this cellar is not destroyed by vandals, it will stand for more than one hundred years.

As expected, there are no traces of a moat. If you look from the farm to the southeast, then after 100-200 meters you can see the railway through which the ditch allegedly passed without damaging it.

Temples-Withwitnesses

A clear indicator of the seismic hazard for the Ostrovets region is the condition of many old churches in this area.

In Ostrovets there is a large church of Saints Cosmas and Damian built in 1785-1787. From it to the farm Serzhants in a straight line 5 km. Priests at that time were the most educated people in the countryside, and church archives were the most important sources of information, which reflected all the significant events for this area.

It turns out that five kilometers from the temple in Ostrovets the earth shook so that the cattle fell off their feet, and a moat was formed on the ground, visible for a verst - but there is no information about the damage to the church? If the church had cracked, the priest would certainly hasten to report this phenomenon - at least in order to raise money for repairs.

The reference book notes that the Gudogai earthquake was observed in the village of Bystritsa, Ostrovets district: “Noise (hum) like from a heavily loaded cart, the ground shook several times and the house seemed to move, a saw fell, people woke up, in some areas there were cracks in the ground” - presumably , quote from "Kurjor Litewshi Tuzesienic Ziemli u nas", No. 11 (24). 1909.

The village of Bystritsa is located at a distance of 14 km from the BelNPP. In Bystrica stands the Church of the Exaltation of the Holy Cross built in 1760. It turns out that “cracks in the ground” appeared in the village, while there is no information about damage to the temple in this village. Even now, no traces of damage are visually detected on the temple inside and outside.

Seven kilometers from the BelNPP in the village of Vornany stands the Church of St. George built in 1760-1769. There is no information about earthquakes in its history.

Eight kilometers from the BelNPP in the other direction in the village of Gervyaty rises one of the most beautiful and highest in Belarus Trinity Church built in 1903. There are no records of earthquakes in its history either.

Instrumental earthquakes in Belarus

And most importantly, cracks and ditches are formed only during devastating earthquakes from eight MSK-64 points with inevitable damage to buildings. At the same time, there is no information in historical reports about damage to buildings, and the condition of the surviving buildings indicates that they safely survived a possible earthquake.

If for the most part the temples built two centuries ago in the Ostrovets region have never been damaged by possible earthquakes - including the recognized Gudogai earthquake, one of the strongest in the history of Belarus, if there was such a seismic activity, one can hardly worry about the safety of nuclear power plants, which are among the most secure buildings in the world.

The efforts of Belarus to study candidate sites when choosing a site for the construction of a nuclear power plant were highly appreciated by the IAEA and called "unprecedented" - instead of the two required sites, four were explored. The choice of the site in Astravets by the IAEA experts was approved.

Approximately 500,000 earthquakes occur every year around the world, of which 100,000 are directly felt by humans.

In Belarus, instrumental seismological observations have been carried out only since 1965, when a geophysical observatory was built in the settlement of Pleschenitsy near Minsk.

Over the past half century, documented earthquakes with epicenters in Belarus have been recorded only in the Soligorsk region. These were small shocks caused by the redistribution of tension in the earth due to the mining of potash salt, which has been carried out since 1961.

The most noticeable shocks in Belarus were in 1977 and 1986, which were noted not only by instruments, but were also noticed by the population (chandeliers swayed, dishes rattled) - they were the result of earthquakes in the mountains of Romania.

On September 21, 2004, an earthquake occurred in the Kaliningrad region, the echoes of which reached Belarus with an intensity of 3-4 points.

All other earthquakes in Belarus are noted only by written sources and are called historical. Therefore, it is very difficult to assess their strength and intensity.

Mote and log

The one who compiled the question-claim, conscientiously copied only Belarusian earthquakes from the Belarusian catalog, without looking at the fact that much more similar historical earthquakes were recorded in Latvia, from where the BelNPP is much closer than from some of the places of Belarusian earthquakes.

For example, in 1908 eight historic earthquakes were recorded in Latvia. According to written sources, two of them caused cracks in the buildings. One of such historical earthquakes was in the city of Daugavpils.

It turns out that Lithuania is worried about two historical earthquakes, noted in 1893 and in 1896 in the Mogilev region, which is 293 km from the BelNPP, but it is not at all worried about the historical earthquake of 1908 in Daugavpils, which is 126 kilometers from BelNPP.

The Russians will take the spent nuclear fuel from the BelNPP for processing, but the irradiated fuel from the closed Ignalina nuclear power plant in Lithuania will be stored in an intermediate storage facility (ISSF), which is still under construction. The purpose of the ISFSF is to store about 2,500 tons of SNF, or tens of thousands of fuel rod bundles, for 50 years. By the way, there is still no decision on what to do with this SNF after the expiration of the storage period.

The Lithuanian ISFSF is being built next to Lake Drisvyaty, which borders Belarus. From the repository to Belarus - 5 km, to Latvia - 7 km, to Daugavpils, the site of the historical earthquake of 1908 - 24 km.

It turns out that officials in Lithuania are very worried about the seismic resistance of the BelNPP (17 km from the site of a dubious historical earthquake), but at the same time they are completely calm about the construction of an ISFSF storage facility in an area similar in seismic hazard on their territory, despite the fact that ISFSF will be an order of magnitude more irradiated fuel than at the Belarusian station.

How not to remember the saying about the speck in someone else's eye?

Vasily Semashko.

The earthquake in Japan on September 11 excited not only the Japanese, but the entire globe. Is it safe in Belarus? This question was answered by the head of the department of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Aronova.

"Komsomolskaya Pravda in Belarus" spoke with the head of the department of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences Tatyana Aronova.

The earthquake in Japan on September 11 excited not only the Japanese. Throughout history, scientists have recorded a couple of earthquakes of this magnitude - 12 points.

This year our planet has already been shaken by the strongest earthquakes with a magnitude above 7 on the coast of Central Chile on January 2, on the Loyalty Islands on January 13 and in southwestern Pakistan on January 18.

Is it safe in Belarus? Tatyana Aronova, head of the department of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences, answered this question to Komsomolskaya Pravda.

- Is Belarus in a seismically active zone?

Belarus is located in the western part of the East European platform. And the platform is a place quite stable and motionless. So our country is in a zone of weak seismic activity.

In Europe, the southern regions, the so-called Trans-Asian seismic belt, are most susceptible to seismic impact. Many earthquakes occur in Turkey, Greece, Italy - all over the Mediterranean.

For us, the most painful point is the earthquakes that occur in Romania. The centers originate in the Eastern Carpathians (Vrancea zone), where deep-focus earthquakes occur, the waves from which reach Belarus. There were such earthquakes in 1940, 1977, 1986. Waves of these earthquakes swept across Belarus and even reached Moscow.

Floods do not threaten us either, in the worst case, spring flooding. We are far enough from the coastal zone to be subject to such cataclysms.

- But we had earthquakes?

There were 9 earthquakes in total on the territory of Belarus. 4 of them are historical and 5 are instrumentally recorded. Historical earthquakes were recorded from the words of residents who felt the rocking of objects on the earth's surface, the clanging of dishes, the creaking of furniture and floors. Based on this information, calculations were carried out and the magnitude of earthquakes and the maximum number of points were determined. Those earthquakes that were registered by instruments in Belarus were observed in the Soligorsk mining region. These are earthquakes in 1978, 1983, 1985 and two in 1998. The strength of these earthquakes was small - within magnitude 3. The last two were generally weak, but their depth was small, so people on the surface felt the swaying and movement of objects. In Soligorsk, there is a redistribution of stresses in the earth's crust due to mining, which provokes tectonic activity

- We had an earthquake in which buildings collapsed?

No, there have never been destructive earthquakes on the territory of Belarus. In 2004, waves from the earthquake that occurred in the Kaliningrad region were felt in Belarus. In the central zone, it caused destruction and even there were breaks in the earth's crust, while we had only effects. Those who at that time were on high floors felt a strong rocking of the building, saw objects falling, but nothing more. The higher you are from the ground, the stronger the feeling of an earthquake will be, the stronger it will sway. On the territory of Belarus, neither in the historical period, nor now, strong destructive earthquakes were observed and, most likely, will not be, since we are on the platform territory, and, moreover, on the old continental plate.

- Are there zones of seismic activity in Belarus?

Based on the data we receive from five seismic stations (Minsk, Naroch, Polotsk, Mogilev and Soligorsk), we have compiled a map of the seismotectonic activity of the territory of Belarus. We call seismically active zones those zones in the region of which earthquakes have already occurred or those in which they are theoretically possible. On this map, taking into account the fault tectonics and earthquakes that we happened to observe, active zones are highlighted where seismic activity can be. But whatever it is, there can be no earthquakes on our territory even with a magnitude higher than 4.5.

They will not reach us in sensations, but the instruments sense it. Seismic waves run around the surface of the globe several times after an earthquake. For two hours after the shocks in Japan, our instruments showed and recorded seismic waves, but we did not feel anything. Our devices record all the world's earthquakes with magnitude 5 and above, in Europe - with magnitude 4 and above. People can feel the effects of these earthquakes up to 500 kilometers from the epicenter, depending on the magnitude of the earthquake, but no more.

- With what accuracy do modern scientists predict earthquakes?

There are seismological centers in the UK, France and Russia that collect information from all seismic stations in the world, and data from Belarusian stations are also presented there. Seismological bases and maps are compiled there. Countries with high seismic activity are engaged in earthquake forecasts. By indirect and calculated factors, they try to determine the place, strength and time of earthquakes. But, as practice has shown, these calculations are justified only in terms of area and strength. At present, no one can give such information for sure. There was an unfortunate false forecast in China in 1975. Scientists were waiting for an earthquake with a magnitude above 7, declared an alarm, evacuated people, but the earthquake did not happen. But a year later there was a very strong earthquake with destruction and casualties, the Chinese could not predict it.

Scientists of all countries in the seismological forecast pay great attention to foreshock activity (foreshocks are earthquakes before the main shock, and aftershocks are earthquakes after the main shock), but it is possible to predict an earthquake only for several days. What will happen in the source of the earthquake, and even more so the mechanism of movement - no one will know this until the earthquake itself occurs. Each earthquake has its own mechanism - thrust, fault or shift.

Recently, strong earthquakes have occurred quite often: last year - in Haiti, this year - in Chile, Pakistan, Japan. What is happening to the Earth?

The earth is an organism that is constantly in motion. Therefore, earthquakes are inevitable, they are directly related to the geological evolution of the planet.

One more moment. Everyone around says that the earth's axis has shifted greatly after the earthquake in Japan, but it is already in constant motion. Before this earthquake, there were two strong earthquakes in Chile. This is a country of another continent. That earthquake could have pushed the axle one way, but this earthquake pushed it the other way. It turns out that they balance each other.

Is the Belarusian nuclear power plant being built in a seismically active zone?

The earthquake that occurred in the Ostrovets region in 1908 had a magnitude of 6-7. Protection at a nuclear power plant under construction is provided for above these values, ”Vladimir Gorin, deputy chief engineer of the nuclear power plant construction directorate, comments to Komsomolskaya Pravda. - In general, there are still doubts whether there was an earthquake at all. At that time, there were almost no seismic stations, all descriptions were from the words of eyewitnesses. Some scientists are still arguing whether it was their own Gudogai earthquake or echoes of the Italian earthquake, which provoked powerful aftershocks throughout Europe.

During the construction of projects of this type, sensors and seismic protection systems are used that prevent damage to equipment during an earthquake of more than 8 magnitudes. In Japan, seismic protection has fulfilled its function completely, the reactors were shut down automatically. The problem arose not during, but after the earthquake, when a tsunami wave passed and destroyed the cooling water supply system. Our project has all degrees of protection against all earthquakes that may be in our seismic active zone. There is no need to make any adjustments.