Interesting
Hi all! Today I want to tell you about several scales that are used to evaluate various phenomena. In our lives, such scales surround us everywhere - from the Celsius scale for measuring temperature to the Richter scale for measuring the energy released during an earthquake. In addition to them, there are several rather exotic scales, the knowledge of which you can show off to your friends on occasion.
Kardashev scale
The Kardashev scale is used to determine the level of development of civilization. This is a theoretical value and it is very specific, since the total energy consumption for the entire civilization is used as the measured value. The scale was proposed in 1964 by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev, and initially there were only three main “divisions” - I, II and III. A civilization of the first type is one that has mastered all the energy resources of its planet. A civilization of the second type has mastered the resources of its star system (in our case, the Solar System), and a civilization of the third type has mastered the resources of its Galaxy. Science fiction writers expanded this scale to type IV (mastered the energy of the Universe) and type V (ability to use and master the energy of all Universes). Because of large gap between divisions it is customary to split them into hundredths, and according to this clarification, now our civilization has an index on the Kardashev scale equal to 0.72. Calculations have shown that we will achieve a solid one no earlier than 2100, two – 3100, and we will probably get three in 100,000 years, or even a million.
Kinsey scale
The developer of this scale, sexologist Alfred Kinsey, tried to express in numerical terms sexual orientation person. There are only seven divisions on his scale - from 0 to 7, zero means exclusively heterosexual inclinations, 6 - absolutely homosexual. In between are various mixed options. According to Alfred, there are no absolutes in nature. pure types sexual behavior, and in every person, attraction to the opposite and same sex is mixed in one proportion or another. How true this is - I don’t dare to judge; today many experts in the field of human sexual behavior claim that the Kinsey scale is very simplified, and human behavior in this area is organized much more complex.
Trout-Uhle scale 
We often call the water in the ocean or river blue, blue, greenish or even emerald. But if we take, for example, the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, where will the water be “more emerald”? How to measure this? In order to be able to determine the value of the transparency and color of water, oceanologist Francois Forel proposed a scale for measuring the color of water, which was improved three years later by the German lake scientist Willi Uhle. To measure the color of water, it was proposed to use 22 bottles with a liquid of a certain color, which would be alternately compared with the color of the water, and if they matched, the color of the bottle would be numerical value water colors. This is the so-called color index.
Later, another device appeared - the Secchi disk, which is named after the Italian astronomer Petro Secchi, who proposed in 1865 to measure the turbidity/transparency of water using a special graduated disk, which would be immersed in water on a cord, and the length of the cord at which the disk would stop to be visible in the water was an indicator of turbidity.
The Forel-Uhle scale is quite approximate and is rarely used nowadays. In modern oceanography, the so-called platinum-cobalt scale is more often used, proposed in 1892 by the chemist Alain Hazen, who, for reasons unknown to us, did not call it the Hazen scale :) In this scale, the color of water is compared with the color of solutions of platinum and cobalt salts, and in quality digital value The concentration of these salts in the sample solution is used, at which its color matches the color of the measured water. Modern scientists carry out such measurements using computer systems, automatically mixing all the necessary solutions, and color comparison is often carried out using a spectrograph.
Man has always dreamed of finding out whether he is alone in the Universe or whether there are others somewhere intelligent beings who have reached the highest level of development. What could this level be? What is taken as the degree of development of civilization? Many years ago, the answer to this question was given by the Kardashev scale, which allows us to assess the possibilities and upcoming stages of development of the Earth's civilization.
Nikolai Semenovich Kardashev - a man who went down in world history
Nikolai Kardashev was one of the most famous Soviet astrophysicists, who spent most of his life searching for extraterrestrial intelligence. He was the first to put forward a theory with weight evidence base that civilizations replace each other. He believed that even before our civilization there could have been several other branches on the planet that ended their existence after reaching a certain degree of development.
Kardashev admitted that there are also several different civilizations in the Universe that may be beyond our understanding. Together with his colleagues, Nikolai Semenovich actively worked on the classification of the stages of their development. Kardashev's research has inspired astrophysicists to launch various programs to study extraterrestrial intelligence. For example, in the USA, Kardashev’s published works were extremely popular. On their basis, several secret space programs were created. The secrecy stamp has not been removed from them to this day.
Kardashev scale: briefly about the development of civilizations
Astrophysicist Kardashev created a special scale that made it possible to classify the level of development of civilization. The scientist put it in direct dependence on the amount of energy consumed. According to this theory, a stable increase in energy consumption of several percent per year makes it possible to extend the transition from one level to another for several tens of millennia.
It is currently not possible to check the Kardashev scale. It is hypothetical, but nevertheless gives an idea of the possibilities for the development of civilization on a cosmic scale. Astronomers around the world use the Kardashev scale to search for extraterrestrial intelligence.
Levels of development of civilization according to Kardashev
The Kardashev scale provided only three levels and scenarios according to which the development of absolutely any civilization in the Universe could proceed. Further progress, according to the scientist, was impossible, since civilization reached the maximum level of power and became mega-perfect. To this day, the scale created by the astrophysicist remains unchanged:
- The first type of civilization is planetary. On this level development, intelligent beings use the full potential of their planet. It becomes under their control and can no longer affect the well-being of civilization. Everyone is subordinate to her natural phenomena, including disasters. And energy is extracted from the field of the planet itself and nearby stars.
- Type II civilization on the Kardashev scale is interplanetary. At this stage, they completely conquer the energy of their star. On its basis, special structures are created that accumulate and distribute energy. There are no difficulties with thermonuclear energy; it is put at the service of the mind. Civilizations of the second type on the Kardashev scale are actively moving deeper into the Universe and populating other planets. Its power prevents extinction and makes individuals immune to any external influences.
- The third type of civilization is interstellar. By this stage, civilization will be something completely new and perfect. Distant stars and new Galaxies will be available for colonization, and new sources of energy will be captured and re-created. open stars. Civilization III type according to the Kardashev scale, it should change as much as possible, it is a colony of cyborgs that have the ability to self-reproduce. Those who failed to adapt to new conditions and evolve become a defective branch of development and gradually die out.
IN present moment The Kardashev scale received an addition in the form of two more stages of development from Western science fiction writers and theorists.
The fourth and fifth stages of development according to Carl Sagan
Many science fiction writers were not satisfied with the three levels to which civilizations can reach in their development. Therefore, they decided to supplement the well-known scale. Their additions are not taken into account by astrophysicists, but are seriously considered by science fiction lovers:
- The fourth level is intergalactic society. Civilization is turning into superintelligent beings. They can use the full potential of the Galaxy and exist freely in black holes. A civilization of the fourth level easily overcomes time and space, and also subordinates them to itself and its needs.
- The fifth level is an interuniverse society. Such a civilization can be characterized from a divine perspective. Intelligent beings control a conglomerate of Universes, penetrate into parallel worlds and are able to create matter with the power of thought.
I would like to clarify that these stages of civilization development are quite far from scientifically based scenarios of the distant future.
What level of development is it at today?
Civilizations on the Kardashev scale pass through all levels gradually and quite slowly. But, unfortunately, today we do not even reach the first level of development. Humanity is still in the cradle or, as many scientists call it, at level zero.
We are completely dependent on our planet, depleting its resources and consuming the dead energy of plants and animals. Despite the fact that it has overcome the last five thousand years of the existence of our civilization big way, this is still not enough to rise to the first level, much less become a civilization of the second type.
Can we become a type two civilization?
It is unknown how long it will take humanity to reach the second level of development. And can we rise to such a high level? Modern astrophysicists believe that our civilization needs no more than two hundred years to reach the first level of development on the Kardashev scale. But the founder of this theory himself was not so optimistic in his forecasts; according to his data, humanity needs more than three thousand years to enter the first stage. Of course, if civilization does not exhaust the resources of its planet before this time and does not destroy itself in bloody wars.
Some scientists, observing humanity's pathological thirst for energy consumption, made a bold assumption that this trend will persist for another five thousand years. Consequently, the transition to a civilization of the second type could be disastrous for humanity itself and threaten the existence of the planet.
It is unknown what humanity will become when it reaches a new level of development, but it will definitely make this important transition. But it will be a slightly different human civilization.
Kardashev scale - measurement method technological development civilization, based on the amount of energy that a civilization can use for its needs. It was proposed by the Soviet radio astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in his work “Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations,” published in the “astronomical journal” in 1964.
The scale defines three categories, called Type I, II, and III, respectively. A Type I civilization uses all available resources available on its home planet; Type II civilization - harnesses all the energy of its star; Type III - of its galaxy.
The scale is hypothetical and, from the point of view modern civilization, very speculative. At the same time, it reflects the energy consumption of civilization in space perspective. The scale was used to help astronomers search for civilizations in nearby galaxies.
Are scale extensions also proposed? To even more hypothetical civilizations of type IV, capable of using the resources of the entire universe, and type V, managing an arbitrary set of universes (multiverse. It was also proposed to add quantitative criterion energy consumption by such qualitative indicators as, for example, “Ownership in Perfection” of a planet, system or galaxy (achieving complete control over the processes occurring in them), or (addition of Carl Sagan’s classification) consider, in addition to the amount of utilized energy, the amount of information controlled by civilization.
* current status human civilization.
Human civilization at the present time has not yet reached type I, since it is capable of using only part of the energy that is available on earth. The current state of human civilization can thus be called type 0. original version of the scale? Kardashev did not provide for intermediate values, but Carl Sagan proposed to expand the applicability of the scale by interpolation and extrapolation? , Turning it from ranked to absolute.
Fermi paradox. Loneliness in the Universe
But imagine if this amazingly improbable assumption was true? What if Homo sapiens- the only species in the history of the Universe that invented radio, built an X-ray observatory and sent a spacecraft into space?
Think about it, what if - despite the existence of exoplanets located in the habitable zone of their stars - we are completely alone in the entire cosmos?
This assumption was made by physicists Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord. They all represent Oxford University. In a document hosted on the Arxiv server and waiting expert assessment, scientists have simulated what would happen if two pillars of astrobiology, the Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation, were combined and subjected to rigorous mathematical evaluation.
The results obtained will not please enthusiasts very much. They are sure that at least one alien civilization exists somewhere out there.
Existing estimates of the likelihood of the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life, the researchers report, are based only on uncertainties and assumptions. Which lead to results containing errors reaching “several orders of magnitude”.
Dyson sphere. What is a Dyson Sphere?
A Dyson sphere is a huge hypothetical artificial structure proposed by Freeman Dyson in 1959. It is needed to intercept huge amount solar energy. Dyson calculated that if the current exponential rate of growth in energy consumption continues, human race will reach critical point development over the next two to three millennia. At this stage, all non-renewable energy sources such as fossil and nuclear fuels will be exhausted. And even renewable sources used throughout the planet will not be able to cope with its huge deficit.
Scientists know that the Earth intercepts less than one billionth of total number solar radiation. To fuel future growth, humanity will have to use much more energy from the sun. This could be done using a Dyson sphere: a spherical shell 2-3 meters thick. It should be focused on the Sun. And revolve around it at a distance of about twice more distance Earth from our star. The material for building the sphere, Dyson suggested, could be obtained by “disassembling” the planet Jupiter and using minerals and metals from its depths.
Kardashev's scale of civilizations. Kardashev scale: 5 types of civilizations of the future
The Kardashev scale is used to determine the level of development of civilization. This is a theoretical value and it is very specific, since the total energy consumption for the entire civilization is used as the measured value. The scale was proposed in 1964 by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev, and initially there were only three main “divisions” - I, II and III. Currently expanded to IV, V and VI “divisions”, a zero has been added.
Type 0 Civilization
Type 0 civilizations are pre-industrial or, in best case scenario, civilizations at the first stage of space expansion. This type uses most of the planet's available energy resources. The closest analogue would be humanity in beginning of XXI century. Perhaps many civilizations of this type self-destruct in the process of transition to new level development.
Type I Civilization
A planetary civilization uses the resources of its planet fully. The planets of its star system are colonized, becoming part of the resource base. Very often this stage becomes a trap for civilization. It enters a state of self-sufficiency, directing resources to virtual development instead of further expansion. Many civilizations of this type cease to exist due to catastrophic changes in their native star - for example, its transformation into a nova or supernova.
Type II Civilization
Such civilizations are very rare and do not occur often. As a rule, they have existed for several million years. They use all the available energy of their star system and have already been able to carry out interstellar travel and colonize planets in other star systems. Type II civilizations survived their youth and overcame turbulent times. The chances of continuing your development increase sharply at this point.
Type III Civilization
Defined as a civilization that is capable of harnessing the energy of the entire galaxy. They are rare even on a universal scale. Even according to an overly liberal estimate, their number in all known galactic clusters will not exceed a hundred. This level is practically unattainable for one species. To reach this level of development, many races must unite into a single whole.
Type V/Vb Civilization
Any civilization that has advanced to this point will have access to all the available energy in the Universe. Theoretically, they may well be able to change some or all physical laws of this universe.
Type VI Civilization
A completely hypothetical civilization that can use the energy of several universes, change the physical laws in them and even prevent heat death native universe to exist forever.
Almost 14 billion years have passed since big bang, and some of the alien civilizations would have become technologically advanced and interplanetary, so their detection would not have been difficult.
“Where are they?” asked physicist Enrico Fermi, pondering life in space. He reasoned that if the genesis of life was not complex, then the Universe should be teeming with green creatures on trillions of planets. Almost 14 billion years have passed since the Big Bang, and some of the alien civilizations would have become technologically advanced and interplanetary, so their detection would not have been difficult. So why are we still “alone”? There is an answer: the lack of evidence of extraterrestrial life is known as the Fermi Paradox.
Enrico Fermi. Italian physicist, best known for creating the world's first nuclear reactor, and making major contributions to the development of nuclear physics, physicists elementary particles, quantum and statistical mechanics. Considered one of the "fathers of the atomic bomb".
The paradox cast doubt on the possibility of detecting extraterrestrial civilizations and is associated with an attempt to answer one of the most important questions of our time: “Is humanity the only technologically advanced civilization in the Universe?” An attempt to answer this question is the Drake equation, which estimates the number of extraterrestrial civilizations possible for contact. It can give for some values unknown parameters enough highly appreciated chances of such a meeting. To such conclusions, Fermi replied that if there should be many advanced civilizations in our Galaxy, then the question must be answered: “Where are they? Why don't we see any traces of intelligent extraterrestrial life, such as probes, spacecraft or radio transmissions? The assumptions that form the basis of the Fermi Paradox are often called the Fermi Principle.
N – the number of intelligent civilizations ready to make contact;
R is the number of stars formed per year in our galaxy;
fp – fraction of stars with planets;
ne is the average number of planets (and satellites) with suitable conditions for the emergence of civilization;
fl is the probability of the origin of life on a planet with suitable conditions;
fi – probability of occurrence reasonable forms life on a planet that has life;
fc – ratio of the number of planets, reasonable residents which are capable of contact and are looking for it, to the number of planets on which there are intelligent life;
L is the lifetime of such a civilization (that is, the time during which the civilization exists, is able to come into contact and wants to come into contact).
Frank Donald Drake formulated the equation in 1960 while preparing for a teleconference that brought together leading astronomers, physicists, biologists, sociologists and industrialists to discuss the possibility of discovering intelligent life on other planets.
Frank Donald Drake. Born in Chicago, he studied electronics at Cornell University. After listening to a course of lectures by the famous astronomer Otto Struve on the formation planetary systems, developed a lifelong interest in issues of extraterrestrial life and civilizations.
When Drake came up with his formula, he had no idea that it would serve as an argument for SETI advocates to fund the project for decades to come.
The Fermi Paradox has many other proposed solutions, such as that we are truly alone in space, or that Earth is isolated from the interstellar community until humans become "responsible citizens of the galaxy." The most terrible of all is the idea of the Great Filter - some inevitable vector of development in which all civilizations have a relatively short lifespan, perhaps because they develop and become victims of self-destructive technologies. In such a scenario, the chances of two civilizations existing in close proximity are negligible, and they will always feel alone.
Fermi paradox? No, we haven't!
American astronomer Jason Wright, a professor of astronomy at Pennsylvania State University, published a paper on April 24, 2017, in which he paraphrased Fermi as “Where were they?” He wonders whether “indigenous” technologically advanced civilizations arose in the past in the solar system and its environs and what legacy they might have left for us, the inhabitants of Earth.
Before people began to roam the Earth
Based on the work of Jason Wright, the Universe may be filled with the remnants of dead civilizations. The scientist does not rely on the chances of “contemplating” life somewhere tens and hundreds of light years away, where it is incredibly difficult to detect, but considers the possibility of the existence of civilizations in the early solar system that fell victim to the Great Filter hundreds of millions, if not billions, of years before How people took their first steps on Earth.
If intelligent life existed here or on other planets and moons, what traces and where should we look? In the destructive environment of Venus and the aggressive tectonics of the Earth, any “man-made” structures would be destroyed in such a for a long time. But on the slowly changing Mars, Moon and possibly covered permafrost satellites gas giants, the cities of ancient civilizations could have been preserved under a layer of ice and rock. In addition, technically advanced predecessors could have left behind radioisotope energy sources that lasted for billions of years.
And although this is just an assumption, we should not forget that our spaceships to this day have only “scratched” the surface of any of the planets. When we finally begin to "dig into the dirt" of other worlds, we may well be able to discover irrefutable evidence of the presence of those who considered themselves the center of the Universe, who burned as a heretic, disproving their greatness, looked at Milky Way, counted the stars, admired the Sun, without thinking about the Great Filter. But it became dust. Became a hostage to time, a hostage to the inexplicable Universe.
Civilizations of the Kardashev scale. Levels of development of civilization according to Kardashev
The Kardashev scale provided only three levels and scenarios according to which the development of absolutely any civilization in the Universe could proceed. Further progress, according to the scientist, was impossible, since civilization reached the maximum level of power and became mega-perfect. To this day, the scale created by the astrophysicist remains unchanged:
- The first type of civilization is planetary. At this level of development, intelligent beings use the full potential of their planet. It becomes under their control and can no longer affect the well-being of civilization. All natural phenomena, including disasters, are subject to it. And energy is extracted from the field of the planet itself and nearby stars.
- Type II civilization on the Kardashev scale is interplanetary. At this stage, intelligent beings completely conquer the energy of their star. On its basis, special structures are created that accumulate and distribute energy. There are no difficulties with thermonuclear energy; it is put at the service of the mind. Civilizations of the second type on the Kardashev scale are actively moving deeper into the Universe and populating other planets. Its power prevents extinction and makes individuals immune to any external influences.
- The third type of civilization is interstellar. By this stage, civilization will be something completely new and perfect. Distant stars and new Galaxies will be available for colonization, and captured and newly discovered stars will become new sources of energy. A type III civilization on the Kardashev scale should change as much as possible; it is a colony of cyborgs that have the ability to self-reproduce. Those who failed to adapt to new conditions and evolve become a defective branch of development and gradually die out.
Technological singularity
Technological singularity in futurology - a hypothetical explosion of speed scientific and technological progress, presumably resulting from creation artificial intelligence and self-replicating machines.
According to some opinions that support the possibility of the singularity, it will occur around 2030 (see, for example, Vernor Vinge)
Proponents of the theory of technological singularity believe that if a mind fundamentally different from human arises (posthuman), future fate civilization cannot be predicted based on human (social) behavior.
The term "singularity" is borrowed from astrophysicists, who use it to describe cosmic black holes and in some theories of the beginning of the universe - the point with infinity large mass and temperature and zero volume. Mathematically, a singularity (feature) is a point of a function whose value tends to infinity, or other similar “interesting” points.
Clarification: The term "Singularity" in in this context was first used back in the mid-twentieth century by John Von Neumann, referring to the mathematical, rather than astrophysical, understanding of this word - the point beyond which extrapolation begins to give meaningless results (diverges). Vernor Vinge himself writes about this, to whom this term is usually attributed (The Coming Technological Singularity, 1993 by Vernor Vinge).
A technological singularity is a hypothetical moment in the future when technological development becomes so rapid that the graph of technological progress becomes almost vertical. This concept was first proposed by Vernor Vinge, who believes that if we manage to avoid the collapse of civilization before then, the singularity will occur due to advances in artificial intelligence, human-computer integration, or other methods of intelligence augmentation. Intelligence enhancement, Vinge believes, will at some point lead to a positive feedback loop: more intelligent systems can create even more intelligent systems, and do so faster than the original human designers. This positive feedback is likely to be so strong that within a very short period of time (months, days or even just hours) the world will be transformed more than we can imagine, and suddenly become populated by superintelligent creatures.
Often associated with the concept of the singularity is the idea that it is impossible to predict what will happen after it. The post-human world that will emerge as a result will probably be so alien to us that we can now know absolutely nothing about it. The only exception there may be fundamental laws of nature, but even here the existence of laws that have not yet been discovered is sometimes allowed (we do not yet have a theory quantum gravity) or not fully understood consequences of known laws (travel through spatial wormholes, the creation of “baby universes,” time travel, etc.), with the help of which posthumans will be able to do what we are accustomed to consider physically impossible.
It has already been noted that what is unpredictable at one point may become predictable as the event approaches. A person living in the 1950s could have foreseen today's world in big details, than the man of the Renaissance, who, in turn, could foresee much more than some savage from the Stone Age. Because the horizon of predictability recedes as we move forward in time, it is possible that the full leap into the unknown will never occur. At each step you can anticipate much of what is going to happen in the next step, although end result could have been completely hidden from you when you were looking from the starting point.
The issue of predictability is important because without the ability to predict at least some of the consequences of our actions, there is no point in trying to direct development in the desired direction.
Transhumanists differ widely on the likelihood of Vinge's scenario. But virtually everyone who believes there will be a singularity believes it will happen this century, and many believe it will likely happen within a few decades.
Links Edit
- The Coming Technological Singularity, 1993 by Vernor Vinge
- Technological singularity as the near future of humanity
A small forecast for the next 200 years. Will humanity be able to overcome the barriers that stand before it and rise up the Kardashev scale? Humanity has come close to the border of the first mark.
A hypothetical scale for measuring the technological development of civilization, proposed by Nikolai Kardashev in 1964. in the USSR. This scale allows us to determine the level of extensive development of civilization, based on how much energy is controlled by society at a given stage of development. Initially, there were 3 types on the scale (type I, II, III), but later IV, V, VI, and also type 0 were added.
The civilization of type 0, to which we belong, on the approaches to the first division, uses most of the energy available on its home planet, but is not yet so developed as to conquer space. Human civilization, by 2010, stands at 0.72, according to the scale.
Type I civilization has already completely conquered the energy reserves of its home planet, it has entered space and is actively exploring its star system. First of all, they must be mastered natural satellites, asteroids and neighboring planets. In the interval between stages I and II, it began to harness the energy of its home star.
A type II civilization has completely mastered the energy of its star, and the further it moves towards type III, the more stars it uses for energy. In cinema typical example such a civilization could be the United Federation of Planets from the movie “ Star Trek" It is this type of civilization that represents a very important turning point in the development of society. Nothing known to science today can erase such a civilization from the face of the Universe. Not natural disasters, not asteroids and comets, not even a supernova explosion.
Type III civilization, the so-called galactic civilization, is capable of absorbing the energy of the entire galaxy. The Great Galactic Empire of all known “ Star Wars" is a shining example this type of community. This type of civilization is most likely practically unattainable for one species. Such a civilization would consist of an amalgamation of many species.
Type IV civilization is a universal civilization that controls the energy of the entire universe. Such a civilization could control processes occurring in the universe, such as the birth and death of stars, the formation of galaxies and even entire galactic clusters.
Type V civilization. The very possibility of the existence of such a civilization is not even clear to us. At this stage, representatives of such a community can be compared to gods, who control the universe itself. They have the power to “turn on/off” or fine-tune fundamental forces nature, such as gravity, electromagnetism and nuclear force. They could, for example, increase or decrease the mass of fundamental particles, change the spin, and adjust the interaction pattern between them.
Type VI civilization is able to create new universes, use their energy, change their physical laws, and even prevent the end of the Universe.
Humanity has come close to the border of the first mark. In the next couple of centuries, we may become a planetary society conquering its solar system. For this, it is simply necessary that a multicultural formation appear on planet Earth, uniting all the states of the world on all fronts, from politics and economics, to the awareness of each human individual as part of one common planetary civilization. Such a civilization, standing at a turning point, will either overcome obstacles, become a type I civilization and have the opportunity to flourish unhindered to type II, or without overcoming the barriers, it will self-destruct. Self-destruction may come in the form natural disaster like an asteroid falling, or internal threats like world war, or man-made disaster.
As one famous scientist, Michio Kaku, put it: “Every day, when I open the news papers, I see the birth pangs of the birth of Type I civilization...”. The processes of the emergence of a planetary culture are taking place before our eyes. Global fashion, global brands, globalization. There are already jokes and anecdotes that are understandable and funny to almost everyone in any country in the world. Today, anyone can find out in a matter of minutes about any event that has happened, even if it happened on another continent. Economic and political associations, like the European Union, are nothing more than harbingers of the unification of all, or most, countries into one planetary form of statehood. In many aspects of its activities, humanity is united and this is visible naked eye. We are witnessing the formation of a type I civilization.
However, the same newspaper headlines also indicate processes that are preventing unification. Terrorism, pollution environment, global warming, melting glaciers, hunger of a significant part of the population, contradictions between states and the threat of world war. All these are the very factors that do not allow humanity to find a common language and finally unite.
In the next 200 years, we will find out whether we, as a civilization, can move to a further level of development and become a Type I civilization. Who knows, maybe if we overcome all the barriers and obstacles, going out into deep space, then we will see the ruins of other civilizations that could not rise up the scale.
It remains only to add that all of the above is nothing more than a cautious forecast for the future. This article is nothing more than my opinion, which is shared by some representatives of our civilization.
Space development scale. Cosmic time scale
Space time | |
Big bang |
|
1 second | Particle birth |
100 s – 10 hours | Formation of deuterium, helium, lithium, beryllium nuclei |
1 million years | Formation of atoms |
1 – 2 billion years | Beginning of galaxy formation |
3 billion years | Formation of galaxy clusters |
4 billion years | The compression of our protogalaxy |
4.1 – 10 billion years | Formation of the first stars |
10.2 billion years. | Protosolar cloud |
10.3 billion years | Compression of the protosolar cloud |
10.4 billion years | Planet formation |
11.1 billion years | Archaeozoic era |
12 billion years | Origin of microorganisms |
13 billion years | Proterozoic era |
14 billion years | Palaeozoic |
14.55 billion years | Plants on land |
14.6 billion years | |
14.75 billion years | Mesozoic era, formation of mountains |
14.8 billion years | Reptiles |
14.85 billion years | Cenozoic era, dinosaurs |
14.95 billion years | First mammals |
15 billion years |
And type V, controlling an arbitrary set of universes (multiverse). It was also proposed to supplement the quantitative criterion of energy consumption with such qualitative indicators as, for example, “perfect mastery” of a planet, system or galaxy (achieving complete control over the processes occurring in them), or (adding to Carl Sagan’s classification) to consider, in addition to the amount of energy utilized, the amount civilization-controlled information.
Current State of Human Civilization
Human civilization at present has not yet reached Type I, since it is only able to use part of the energy that is available on Earth. The current state of human civilization, therefore, can be called type 0. The original version of the Kardashev scale did not provide for intermediate values, but Carl Sagan proposed to expand the applicability of the scale by interpolation and extrapolation, turning it from a ranking to an absolute one.
Sagan used the following formula:
Unable to parse expression (Executable file texvc not found; See math/README for setup help.): K = \frac(\lg_())(W)-6) (10)
,
As of 2007, the Kardashev value is approximately 0.72, calculated using the Sagan formula using the 2007 consumption chart. It is important to note that this value of 0.72 corresponds to humanity using about 0.16% of the planet's total energy budget (10 16 W).
| Year | Energy production | Meaning according to the Kardashev scale |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExaJoules/year | TVW | Tonne of oil equivalent/year | ||
| 1900 | 21 | 0.67 | 500 000 000 | 0.58 |
| 1970 | 190 | 6.0 | 4 500 000 000 | 0.67 |
| 1985 | 290 | 9.2 | 6 900 000 000 | 0.69 |
| 1995 | 360 | 12 | 8 700 000 000 | 0.70 |
| 2000 | 420 | 13 | 10 000 000 000 | 0.71 |
| 2010 | 510 | 16 | 12 100 000 000 | 0.72 |
| 2030 | 680 | 22 | 16 300 000 000 | 0.73 |
Description of types
Type 1
Type 3
galaxies Energy consumption estimate is approximately 4·10 37 W.
Non-theory Type 4
A civilization whose energy consumption is comparable to the power of the universe. Energy consumption estimate - 10 49 −10 50 W.
Science Fiction Writer Helge Kautz Scale
Reworked scale, including new types, according to the science fiction writer Helge Kautza:
Civilization type 0: Type 0 civilizations are pre-industrial or, at best, civilizations at the first stage of space expansion. This type uses most of the planet's available energy resources. The closest analogue will be humanity at the beginning of the 21st century. Perhaps many civilizations of this type self-destruct in the process of transition to a new level of development.
Type II civilization: Such civilizations are very rare and do not occur often. As a rule, they have existed for several million years. They use all the available energy of their star system and have already been able to carry out interstellar travel and colonize planets in other star systems. Type II civilizations survived their youth and overcame turbulent times. The chances of continuing your development increase sharply at this point.
Type III civilization: Defined as a civilization that is capable of harnessing the energy of the entire galaxy. They are rare even on a universal scale. Even according to an overly liberal estimate, their number in all known galactic clusters will not exceed a hundred. This level is practically unattainable for one species. To reach this level of development, many races must unite into a single whole.
Type IV civilization: This type of civilization can use the entire amount of available energy of galactic superclusters.
Civilization V/Vb type: Any civilization that has advanced to this point will have access to all the available energy of the Universe. Theoretically, they may well be able to change some or all of the physical laws of this universe.
Type VI civilization: A completely hypothetical civilization that can harness the energy of multiple universes, change their physical laws, and even prevent the heat death of their home universe in order to exist forever Lua error: callParserFunction: function "#property" was not found. )]][[K:Wikipedia:Articles without sources (country: Lua error: callParserFunction: function "#property" was not found. )]] .
Civilization VII type : The most complex entity of the World is the limit of development of all civilizations in the World - an ideal intelligent conscious entity. The world is defined as an entity that satisfies three parameters: logic, integrity and uniqueness.
Criticism
It has been argued that since we cannot understand advanced civilizations, we cannot predict their behavior, so Kardashev's visualization may not reflect what actually happens to an advanced civilization. This argument was particularly presented in the book Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life.
Also, since the Kardashev scale relates the level of a civilization to the energy it is able to use, it "punishes" civilizations that increase energy efficiency or do not strive for energy expansion.
It is also quite likely that the very distribution of the level of development of civilizations by level of energy consumption (in increasing order) is completely incorrect, since most likely [[K:Wikipedia:Articles without sources (country: Lua error: callParserFunction: function "#property" was not found. )]][[K:Wikipedia:Articles without sources (country: Lua error: callParserFunction: function "#property" was not found. )]][[K:Wikipedia:Articles without sources (country: Lua error: callParserFunction: function "#property" was not found. )]] just a decrease in the overall energy consumption of civilization with an increase in the level of technology. Therefore, we need to talk not about an increase in constant energy consumption to a level comparable to the power of the galaxy or, in as a last resort, the Universe, but about the possibility of obtaining any amount of energy available in principle if necessary.
In the anniversary edition “Science and Technology of the USSR in 1917-1987. Chronicle" (M.: Nauka, 1987) Kardashev’s classification is indicated as one of most important achievements Soviet science in 1964 (p. 185).
See also
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Notes
Literature
- Kardashev N. S. Cosmology and civilizations // Ancient astronomy: sky and man. - 1997.
- Holdren, John P.; Carl Kaysen.(PDF). Bulletin Fall 24–31 (2003). Retrieved August 10, 2006. .
- Berezhnoy S. V (May 2012). "". "World of Fantasy" 105 .
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An excerpt characterizing the Kardashev Scale
My poor grandmother, from the dampness in the room, which was not heated even in summer, soon fell ill with tuberculosis. And, apparently weakened by the shocks she had suffered, starvation and illness, she died during childbirth, without ever seeing her baby, and without finding (at least!) the grave of his father. Literally before her death, she took the word from the Seryogins that, no matter how difficult it was for them, they would take the newborn (if he survived, of course) to France, to his grandfather’s sister. What then wild time to promise, of course, was almost “wrong”, since the Seryogins, unfortunately, had no real opportunity to do this... But they still promised her in order to somehow make it easier last minutes her, so brutally ruined, still very young life, and so that her soul, tormented by pain, could, at least with little hope, leave this cruel world... And even knowing that they would do everything possible to keep their word to Elena, the Seryogins still didn’t really believe in their hearts that they would ever be able to bring this whole crazy idea to life...So, in 1927, in the city of Kurgan, in a damp, unheated basement, a little boy was born, and his name was Prince Vasily Nikolaevich de Rohan-Hesse-Obolensky, Lord of Sanbury... He was the only son of Duke de'Rohan-Hesse-Obolensky and Princess Elena Larina.
Then he still could not understand that he was left completely alone in this world and that his fragile life was now completely dependent on the goodwill of a man named Vasily Seryogin...
And this kid also didn’t know that on his father’s side, he was given a stunningly “colorful” Family Tree, which his distant ancestors wove for him, as if preparing the boy in advance to accomplish some special, “great” deeds... and, thereby placing on his then still very fragile shoulders a huge responsibility to those who once so diligently wove his “genetic thread”, connecting their lives into one strong and proud tree...
He was a direct descendant of the great Merovingians, born in pain and poverty, surrounded by the death of his relatives and the ruthless cruelty of the people who destroyed them... But this did not change who this little man who had just been born really was.
And his amazing family began in the 300th (!) year, with the Merovingian king Conon the First (Conan I). (This is confirmed in a handwritten four-volume volume - a manuscript book of the famous French genealogist Norigres, which is in our family library in France). His Family Tree grew and expanded, weaving into its branches such names as Dukes Rohan in France, Marquises Farnese in Italy, Lords Strafford in England, Russian princes Dolgoruky, Odoevsky... and many, many others , some of which could not be traced even by the world’s most highly qualified genealogists in the UK (Royal College of Arms), who jokingly said that this was the most “international” family tree they had ever compiled.
And it seems to me that this “mix” also did not happen so accidentally... After all, all the so-called noble families had very high-quality genetics, and its correct mixing could have a positive impact on the creation of a very high-quality genetic foundation for the essence of their descendants, which, according to happy circumstances, and my father appeared.
Apparently, mixing “international” gave much better genetic result than purely “family” mixing, which for a long time was almost an “unwritten law” of all European high-born families, and very often ended in hereditary hemophilia...
But no matter how “international” physical foundation my father, his SOUL (and I can say this with full responsibility) until the end of his life was truly Russian, despite all, even the most amazing, genetic connections...
But let’s return to Siberia, where this one, born in the basement, “ little prince", in order to simply survive, by the consent of the broad and kind soul of Vasily Nikandrovich Seregin, one fine day he became simply Vasily Vasilyevich Seregin, a citizen Soviet Union... In which he lived his entire adult life, died, and was buried under the tombstone: “The Seryogin Family,” in the small Lithuanian town of Alytus, far from his family castles, which he had never heard of...
I learned all this, unfortunately, only in 1997, when dad was no longer alive. I was invited to the island of Malta by my cousin, Prince Pierre de Rohan-Brissac, who had been looking for me for a long time, and he also told me who I and my family really are. But I will talk about this much later.
In the meantime, let's go back to where in 1927, kindest soul people - Anna and Vasily Seryogin, there was only one concern - to keep the word given to their dead friends, and, at all costs, to take little Vasilko out of this land, “cursed by God and people” to at least some safe place, and later, to try to fulfill their promise and deliver him to distant and completely unfamiliar France... So they began their difficult journey, and, with the help of local connections and friends, they took my little dad to Perm, where, as far as I know, they lived several years.
The further “wanderings” of the Seryogins seem to me now absolutely incomprehensible and seemingly illogical, since it seemed that the Seryogins were circling in some kind of “zigzags” around Russia, instead of going straight to their desired destination. But for sure, everything was not as simple as it seems to me now, and I am absolutely sure that there were thousands of very serious reasons for their strange movement...
Then Moscow appeared on their way (in which the Seryogins lived some distant relatives), later – Vologda, Tambov, and the last, before leaving native Russia for them it turned out to be Taldom, from which (only after a long and very difficult fifteen years after the birth of my dad) they finally managed to get to the unfamiliar beauty of Lithuania... which was only half the way to distant France...
(I am sincerely grateful to the Taldom group of Russian Social Movement"Renaissance. Golden Age”, and personally to Mr. Vitold Georgievich Shlopak, for an unexpected and very pleasant gift - finding facts confirming the stay of the Seryogin family in the city of Taldom from 1938 to 1942. According to this data, they lived on Kustarnaya Street, house 2a, not far from which Vasily visited high school. Anna Fedorovna worked as a typist in the editorial office of the regional newspaper “Collective Work” (now “Zarya”), and Vasily Nikandrovich was an accountant at the local zagotzerno. Members of the Taldom cell of the Movement managed to find such information, for which my deepest gratitude to them!)
I think that during their wanderings the Seryogins had to grab any job, just to survive as human beings. The time was harsh and, naturally, they did not count on anyone’s help. The wonderful Obolensky estate remained in the distant and happy past, which now seemed simply incredible a beautiful fairy tale... Reality was cruel and, like it or not, we had to reckon with it...
At that time, the bloody Second World War was already underway. Crossing borders was very, very difficult.
(I never found out who and how helped them cross the front line. Apparently, one of these three people someone really needed it if they managed to do something like this... And I’m also absolutely sure that someone influential and strong enough helped them, otherwise they would never have crossed the border in such a difficult time succeeded... But no matter how much I pestered my poor patient grandmother later, she stubbornly avoided answering this question. Unfortunately, I was never able to find out anything about this).
One way or another, they still ended up in unfamiliar Lithuania... Grandfather (I will continue to call him that, since he was the only one I knew as my grandfather) became very ill, and they had to stop in Lithuania for a while. And it was this short stop, one might say, that decided their future fate... As well as the fate of my father and my entire family.
They stopped in the small town of Alytus (so that they would not have to pay too much for housing, since, unfortunately, it was quite difficult for them financially at that time). And so, while they were “looking around”, they didn’t even feel how completely enchanted they were by the beauty of nature, the comfort of a small town and the warmth of the people, which in itself seemed to invite them to stay at least for a while.
And also, despite the fact that at that time Lithuania was already under the heel of the “brown plague”, it still somehow retained its independent and militant spirit, which even the most ardent servants of communism did not manage to knock out of it... And this attracted the Seryogins even more than the beauty of the local nature or the hospitality of the people. So they decided to stay “for a while”... what happened was forever... It was already 1942. And the Seryogins watched with regret as the “brown” octopus of National Socialism tightened its tentacles around the country they loved so much... Having crossed the front line, they hoped that from Lithuania they would be able to get to France. But even with the “brown plague” the door to “ big world“for the Seryogins (and, naturally, for my dad) turned out to be closed, and this time forever... But life went on... And the Seryogins began to gradually settle down in their new place of residence. They had to look for work again in order to have some means of subsistence. But it turned out to be not so difficult to do this - there was always a place for those who wanted to work in hardworking Lithuania. Therefore, very soon life flowed along its usual course and it seemed that everything was calm and good again...
In the work “Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations,” published in the Astronomical Journal in 1964.
The scale defines three categories, respectively called types I, II, and III: a type I civilization uses all available resources available on its home planet; Type II civilization - harnesses all the energy of its star; Type III - of its galaxy.
Current State of Human Civilization
Human civilization at present has not yet reached Type I, since it is only able to use part of the energy that is available on Earth. The current state of human civilization, therefore, can be called type 0. The original version of the Kardashev scale did not provide for intermediate values, but Carl Sagan proposed to expand the applicability of the scale by interpolation and extrapolation, turning it from a ranking to an absolute one.
Sagan used the following formula: K = lg W − 6 10 (\displaystyle K=(\frac (\lg _())(W)-6)(10))), where K is the rating of a civilization, W is its energy consumption in watts.
As of 2007, the Kardashev scale value is approximately 0.72, calculated using the Sagan formula using the 2007 consumption chart. It is important to note that this value of 0.72 corresponds to humanity using about 0.16% of the planet's total energy budget (10 16 W).
| Year | Energy production | Meaning according to the Kardashev scale |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExaJoules/year | TVW | Tonne of oil equivalent/year | ||
| 1900 | 21 | 0,67 | 500 000 000 | 0,58 |
| 1970 | 190 | 6,0 | 4 500 000 000 | 0,67 |
| 1985 | 290 | 9,2 | 6 900 000 000 | 0,69 |
| 1995 | 360 | 12 | 8 700 000 000 | 0,70 |
| 2000 | 420 | 13 | 10 000 000 000 | 0,71 |
| 2010 | 510 | 16 | 12 100 000 000 | 0,72 |
| 2030 (forecast) | 680 | 22 | 16 300 000 000 | 0,73 |
More detailed information about current state Human energy consumption can be found in the article “World energy consumption”.
Description of types
Type 1
Type 3
galaxies Energy consumption estimate is approximately 4·10 37 W.
Non-theory type 4
A civilization whose energy consumption is comparable to the power of the universe. Energy consumption estimate - 10 49 -10 50 W.
Kautz scale
Revised scale to include new types, proposed by science fiction writer Helge Kautzem:
- Civilization type 0: Type 0 civilizations are pre-industrial or, at best, civilizations at the first stage of space expansion. This type uses most of the planet's available energy resources. The closest analogue will be humanity at the beginning of the 21st century. Perhaps many civilizations of this type self-destruct in the process of transition to a new level of development.
- Type I civilization: A planetary civilization uses the resources of its planet fully. The planets of its star system are colonized, becoming part of the resource base. Very often this stage becomes a trap for civilization. It enters a state of self-sufficiency, directing resources to virtual development instead of further expansion. Many civilizations of this type cease to exist due to catastrophic changes in their native star - for example, its transformation into a nova or supernova.
- Type II civilization: Such civilizations are very rare and rarely seen. As a rule, they have existed for several million years. They use all the available energy of their star system and have already been able to achieve interstellar travel and colonize planets in other star systems. Type II civilizations survived their youth and overcame turbulent times. The chances of continuing your development increase sharply at this point.
- Type III civilization: Defined as a civilization that is capable of harnessing the energy of the entire galaxy. They are rare even on a universal scale. Even according to an overly liberal estimate, their number in all known galactic clusters will not exceed a hundred. This level is practically unattainable for one species. To reach this level of development, many races must unite into a single whole. An example is the Galactic Empire (or Republic) from Star Wars.
- Type IV civilization: This type of civilization can use the entire amount of available energy of galactic superclusters.
- Type V civilization: A civilization that has gained access to all the available energy of the Universe.
- Civilization Vb type: Such a civilization will be able to change some physical laws of the Universe.
- Type VI civilization: A completely hypothetical civilization that can harness the energy of multiple universes, change their physical laws, and even prevent the heat death of their home universe in order to exist forever [ ] .
Criticism
It has been argued that since we cannot understand advanced civilizations, we cannot predict their behavior, so Kardashev's visualization may not reflect what actually happens to an advanced civilization. This argument was particularly presented in the book on astrobiology " Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life» by a biologist Jack Cohen and mathematics
