If global carbon emissions don't start falling over the next three years, the planet could face dangerous level climate change, and the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement will be unattainable. In a letter published in the journal Nature, experts including former head UN Climate Action Cristiana Figueres has set out what goals need to be achieved by 2020 to protect the planet if we have any hope of tackling climate change.

Climate catastrophe

Even with a 1°C (1.8°F) increase in global temperatures, sea ice continues to melt, corals die and ecosystems collapse, experts write. Although we have stopped increasing emissions carbon dioxide, they still remain in the atmosphere, so the air temperature continues to rise. The next three years can be called a turning point in this situation.

But you shouldn't be discouraged. Sure, the news that we may have just three years to get the situation under control may seem pessimistic in the current political climate, but there are good signs that we have a chance to change everything. The letter's authors say there are already procedures in place that can be put in place to limit this warming. However, you need to start acting as early as possible.

"These goals may be best case scenario idealistic, at worst unrealistic,” the authors write. “However, we are living in an era of exponential transformation, and we believe that by focusing on these challenges, we can be innovative.” The authors of the letter tell us what the world should be like in 2020 so that we can avoid destructive and dangerous climate change.

Renewable Energy

They say renewable energy should account for at least 30 percent of the world's electricity supply, up 6.5 percent from 2015. Buildings and infrastructure will need to be fully decarbonized by 2050, and heavy industry will need to improve its efficiency and reduce emissions.

Transport

Transport is a serious problem. Electric cars will have to make up at least 15 percent of new sales vehicles worldwide, much higher than the current 1 percent. There should also be plans to further reduce emissions from public transport and a 20% reduction in emissions greenhouse gases from airplanes.

Forest restoration

We should not forget about land use problems. If land-use change and deforestation are halted within a decade and forest restoration begins by 2030, this will not only help reduce all emissions to zero, but also protect water security and biodiversity.

Financing

Governments need to step up their game when it comes to financing, as the paper's authors predict that most of the money mobilized for climate action will come from the private sector. This list of must-dos may seem overwhelming, but if we don't reduce emissions, we will be among the first to suffer.

How to prevent a disaster

The letter goes on to explain how these goals can be achieved. Experts say there is a need to develop policies and actions based on sound science. This means that scientists need to know how best to communicate their ideas, and policymakers need to listen carefully to them. Next, existing solutions need to be scaled up, and this needs to be done as quickly as possible. All countries must develop plans to obtain 100 percent of their electricity from renewable sources.

Finally, we need to be optimistic. All our efforts and plans may seem pointless, and this is depressing, but we should remember that there are solutions and success stories that are worth sharing with each other.

“We must remember that nothing is impossible, and it’s all about our attitude to the problem,” the authors conclude. “There will always be those who bury their heads in the sand and ignore the global risks of climate change. But many of us are determined to overcome this inertia. Let's remain optimistic and act together."

The climate catastrophe in Europe will be like this: an explosion in the form of floods, fires and droughts. This will mean big changes in our everyday life, and it’s important for us to start planning.

A new report from researchers is full of grim predictions for Europe's climate in the coming decades.

“Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change” is the title of the report, the authors of which predict the emergence and strength of such natural disasters, like floods, forest fires and drought in Europe over the next 70 years.

Southern Europe will be hit hardest, with the report arguing that countries such as Portugal and Spain are set to experience such an unprecedented increase in extreme weather events that scientist Bjørn Samset says it will have a significant impact on both economies.

"Southern and Western Europe the coming decades will be the worst. They will experience a mixture of heat waves and coastal flooding. The climate problems there could become so big that they would affect the whole of Europe, since food production in these countries would become very difficult. This will also have an impact on the economy,” says Samseth.

Hundred Year Flood - more often

In the 2080s, Southern Europe will experience periods of drought and extreme heat every year, the report's authors write. Heat waves, which they call “hundred-year heat waves,” have a 70% chance of occurring in Southern Europe every year. A “hundred-year drought” can be expected annually with a 60% probability. There are also many more forest fires, floods and storms expected in countries like Spain and Portugal in the 2080s.

Samseth admits the report may be scary for many:

“The report is a very sad read. We know what happens when there is a lot of rain and it is very hot, and this shows how bad the climate can be in Europe,” he says.

The report's authors used a range of techniques to predict extreme weather events. Samset, researcher at the CICERO Climate Research Centre, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, assures that the report was prepared "in a serious and extremely competent research environment."

Scientists are trying to predict the frequency and severity of natural disasters in Europe in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. To make the task easier, the continent was divided into five parts. Projections for the 2050s reflect the international community's goal of limiting the rise in global average temperatures to a maximum of two degrees above pre-industrial levels.

In the north there will be more floods and more frequent heatwaves

We in northern Europe need to prepare for floods and heat. According to the report's authors, the chance of experiencing a “100-year flood” will increase by 20% annually by 2080. There is a high probability (35%) that what we in northern Europe today call the hottest period of the century will occur every year into the 2080s.

“In the north, increased heat and an increase in the number of large forest fires are expected. The number of dry spells will also be significantly reduced,” explains Samseth.

Simply put, the trend is the same: Europe should, already from 2020, and especially from 2050 onwards, expect a significant increase in heat waves, cold spells, droughts, forest fires, floods and storms. Natural phenomena will also increase in strength, and according to Samset, we should expect that due to climate change parts of Europe will be "taken out of the game" from time to time.

However, he is not pessimistic about the future of the continent.

“A lot will change in our daily lives, which is why it is important to start planning for infrastructure in the north now. Local authorities, for example, should not build housing in areas that will be prone to flooding. I think we can cope with climate change, but it will require a lot of resources from the whole society.

"Serious people"

The situation in Norway and Northern Europe will be better than in the southern regions of the continent. But the report predicts significant climate change in the north too: we can expect heat waves, wildfires and floods every year. There is a 40% chance that Northern Europe will experience a “100-year heatwave” every year, according to information analyzed by scientists.

The problem is that these climate changes will occur at the same time that society will have to move away from fossil fuels. Taken together, these two challenges create a very difficult situation to use resources in Europe,” Samset finally notes.

Many are quite skeptical about climate research, claiming that there is a certain underlying reason for it.

I've always wondered what someone's personal interest could be in predicting what the climate will be like in 100 years. The research was carried out by serious people who took information from many other specialists. I think that we will all survive this, but only if we don’t ignore these forecasts now and pretend that nothing bad will happen,” Samset says about climate change.

Western Europe, namely France, the Benelux countries and Germany, must prepare for floods and heat waves almost every year from the 2020s onwards. Somewhere by 2080, the probability of an annual “100-year flood” will increase by 30%, and the probability of a “100-year drought” will increase by 40%.

“Some of the things described in the report will happen no matter what. The goal is not to exceed the so-called “two-degree barrier,” but even then we know for sure that there will be more natural disasters. When I give talks to students in schools senior level, then I strive to convey to them the following: no matter how they build their lives, climate will be on the agenda for as long as they are destined to live.

During its existence and especially in the 20th century, humanity managed to destroy about 70 percent of all natural ecological (biological) systems on the planet that are capable of processing human waste, and continues their “successful” destruction. The amount of permissible impact on the biosphere as a whole has now been exceeded several times. Moreover, humans release thousands of tons of substances into the environment that were never contained in it and which often cannot be or are poorly recyclable. All this leads to the fact that biological microorganisms, which act as an environmental regulator, are no longer able to perform this function.

According to experts, in 30 - 50 years an irreversible process will begin, which at the turn of the 21st - 22nd centuries will lead to a global environmental disaster. A particularly alarming situation has developed on the European continent. Western Europe its environmental resources basically exhausted and accordingly uses others.

It seems that all environmental problems can be attributed primarily to two main factors connected with each other: climate change and environmental pollution. Based on the scale of their distribution, environmental problems can be divided into:

– local: pollution groundwater toxic substances,

– regional: damage to forests and degradation of lakes as a result of atmospheric fallout of pollutants,

– global: possible climate changes due to an increase in carbon dioxide and other gaseous substances in the atmosphere, as well as depletion of the ozone layer.

This essay will discuss the problem of climate change, which belongs to the category of global catastrophes.

1. Nature of climate change

According to experts, the undesirable consequences of such warming are already beginning to take their toll, leading to unusually warm winters and unprecedented summer heat, an increase in the areas and duration of droughts, and an increase in the number and intensity of destructive climate disasters. If urgent and decisive measures are not taken, global warming in the near future could lead to the melting of polar ice caps, rising sea levels and flooding of large areas currently inhabited.

The greenhouse effect for the Earth's biosphere has both negative effects (rising ocean levels, degradation permafrost, coastal ecosystems, etc.), and positive environmental consequences(increased productivity of natural forest formations, increased productivity of cultivated plants, etc. In addition to the impact on natural ecosystems Global warming will also lead to significant socio-economic consequences associated with various human activities (energy, agriculture and forestry, healthcare and human rights). Among the priority global problems, the rise in sea level and its impact on sea coasts stands out.

2. Forecasts of geo-ecological consequences of global warming of the Earth’s climate

2.1. The World Ocean and Coastal Zones in the 21st Century

Expected global warming will cause the sea level to rise by 0.5 m by 2050 and by 1-1.5 m by 2100, with a simultaneous increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean to 2.5 ° C end of XXI V. The main reasons are: melting of continental and mountain glaciers, sea ice, thermal expansion of the ocean, etc. Currently, sea level rise is approximately 25 cm per century. All this will ultimately lead to the emergence of complex problems: flooding of coastal plains, increased abrasion processes, deterioration of water supply to coastal cities, etc. Moreover, densely populated and developed coastal areas will be primarily affected by flooding. Thus, with a rise in sea level of 1 m, up to 15% of arable land in Egypt and 14% of cropland in Bangladesh will be flooded, which will cause the displacement of millions of people.) In addition, there will be salinization of coastal groundwater, which in many areas globe represent the main source of fresh water.

China, which is one of the main suppliers of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, will at the same time feel the greatest negative consequences of warming in the 21st century. According to forecasts, even a rise in sea level of 0.5 m will lead to the flooding of about 40 thousand km2 of fertile rats. The most vulnerable will be the vast low alluvial and deltaic plains, the lower reaches of large rivers Yellow River, Yangtze, etc., where average density the population sometimes reaches 800 people/km2. In addition, coastal erosion and abrasion are significantly intensifying, which will lead to serious socio-economic consequences, especially in large cities located on the sea coasts.

This problem will also affect the coastal territories of Russia. Thus, with a rise in sea level of 1 m over a century, a strong transformation of the sea coasts will occur, in particular, about 40% of the coasts of the European part of Russia will retreat by 100 m or more. Residential and industrial buildings will be destroyed in cities such as Nakhodka, St. Petersburg, Arkhangelsk, etc.

Changes can be extremely intense on well-developed shores, for example, the Black and Azov Seas, where natural development will be combined with intense anthropogenic impact, i.e. removal of sediment from beaches, construction of dams and dams on rivers, creation of bank protection structures, etc. Sandy embankments separating estuaries in the Northwestern Black Sea region and the Sea of ​​Azov, as well as spits of the Northern Azov region, will be destroyed most intensively. In the Kuban delta and on the Perekop Isthmus, flooding of coastal lowlands is expected. Coastal slopes composed of fragile loess will begin to retreat faster. In the area of ​​Odessa, Mariupol, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, in addition to the erosion of ledges, landslide and landslide processes will intensify, and the destruction of the banks may reach catastrophic proportions.

Under conditions of rising air and surface water temperatures, ice coasts will be subject to rapid destruction due to melting ice and the collapse of overhanging ice blocks. It is possible that the areas of their distribution (Spitsbergen. Franz Josef Land, New Earth, Severnaya Zemlya), the number of icebergs will increase in the waters of the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas. If the thickness of cover glaciers is small, their area under climate warming will be significantly reduced, and eventually they may disappear.

Warming of the surface waters of the World Ocean and the Earth's climate as a whole will apparently lead to a restructuring of atmospheric processes and increased storm activity in temperate and tropical latitudes.

Global warming poses a significant threat to coral reefs, as when water temperatures rise above a certain limit, coral bleaching will begin, which has now become quite common in the ocean. Long-term increases in seawater temperatures can lead to significant degradation of the entire coral reef ecosystem. The destruction of coral atolls, which serve as an ecological habitat for living organisms characterized by great biological diversity, is possible.

However, changes in coastal zone arctic seas may not only be negative, but will also lead to positive socio-economic consequences. Among them is the improvement of ice conditions on the Severny highway. sea ​​route, i.e. the possibility of longer navigation of ships in the Arctic seas throughout the year.

2.2. Permafrost and modern climate

In recent years, climate warming has been especially acutely felt by residents middle zone our country. Here, hot and dry summers and mild winters followed each other. Most scientists associate the increase in surface air temperature with ever-increasing industrial emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other gases that cause the greenhouse effect.

Just a few years ago, a number of major climatologists predicted an increase in air temperatures in northern Eurasia in beginning of XXI V. by 10-15°C. With such a sharp warming, a sharp rise in the level of the World Ocean would be inevitable, accompanied by the flooding of vast low-lying areas, the melting of land and underground ice, the release of gases (especially methane) buried in permafrost and their additional release into the atmosphere. It is no coincidence that in the newspapers recent years There have even been warning headlines like “Methane bomb in permafrost.” Fortunately for northerners, predictions of significant climate changes in high latitudes have not yet come true. But what can we expect in the future?

It is known that the climate constantly undergoes natural changes. In 1625, Sir Francis Bacon drew attention to the fact that in addition to daily and seasonal variations in meteorological elements, there are long-term cycles. In 1957, J.C. Charlesworth had already identified about 150 such cycles of varying durations. In the 70s, A.S. Monin and Yu.A. Shishkov identified numerous cycles with a period from a billion to tens of years. Short-period fluctuations of meteorological elements are well known: 5-6-year, 9-14-year, etc. All cycles, overlapping each other, create a complex integral course of changes in meteorological elements. Over the past two to three decades, natural climate cycles have been increasingly affected by fluctuations associated with anthropogenic influences.

When studying long-term changes in modern climate, in order to exclude random variations, meteorological data are averaged over a period of time, most often over ten years. An analysis of such “moving” values ​​for air temperature was carried out for a number of countries in the Northern Hemisphere - Russia. Canada. USA (Alaska). China. - and he showed that in most continental regions, during the period of instrumental meteorological observations, in general, a noticeable increase in air temperature was actually observed (up to 2.4 ° C in Yakutsk for 1830-1495). However, in areas adjacent to northern seas, the increase in air temperature over the entire period of meteorological measurements, despite its fluctuations in individual years, is practically absent. This gives reason to believe that in the Arctic and some adjacent regions, due to the proximity of the seas and weak technogenic impact, modern warming and cooling do not go beyond the limits of the natural secular cyclicity of climate.

Two periods can be distinguished with a clearly pronounced increase in air temperature in the north: from late XIX V. to the 40s of the XX century. (this period is called the “warming of the Arctic”) and from the mid-60s to the present. The latest warming has not yet reached the size of the first. Moreover, in the early 90s, a noticeable cooling was observed at a number of Arctic weather stations. However, subsequent years turned out to be quite warm, which was the reason for the preservation general trend climate warming today.

Average annual air temperature in northern Russia for 1965 - 1995. increased at various weather stations from 0.4 to 1.8°C. The trend of these values ​​in the indicated 30 years is 0.02-0.03°C/year in the conditions of the European North. 0.03-0.07 - in the north of Western Siberia and 0.01 - 0.08 ° C/year - in Yakutia. The warming is mainly due to an increase in winter air temperatures. Will this trend continue or will it be replaced by another? This question should be of particular interest to us - more than 65% of the vast territory of Russia is occupied by permafrost, which is sensitive to the slightest climate changes and therefore is by no means eternal.

Permafrost scientists are able to quantify future changes in permafrost for any period, but only if the initial climatic parameters are reliably known. The catch is that long-term weather forecasts are far from perfect, and their reliability and accuracy leave much to be desired. As a result, different permafrost forecasts are obtained based on contradictory climate forecasts.

There are scenarios for significant and moderate climate warming in the permafrost region in the 21st century, and there is even a cooling option. Thus, according to the calculations of M.K. Gavrilova, by the middle of the next century the average annual air temperature in Siberia and the Far East will increase by 4-10 ° C, as a result of which permafrost will thaw and over time will remain only in the high mountains and plains of the north of Eastern Europe. Siberia and Far East. O.A. Anisimov and F.E. Nelson believes that an increase in global air temperature by 2° C will lead to complete thawing of frozen rocks on 15 - 20% of the permafrost zone. However, as we have already noted, meteorological data over the past 10-15 years show that extreme climate change scenarios are not justified; warming is occurring, but at a more modest pace.

Forecasts of moderate climate warming are largely based on the analysis of current trends in meteorological characteristics and their extension into the near future. The longer the series and the greater the number of observation points, the greater the confidence in the correctness of the forecast. If the warming trend continues in the first half of the 21st century, we can expect an increase in the average annual air temperature by 0.9-1.5°C by 2020 and by 2.5-3°C by 2050. Atmospheric precipitation by this time will increase by 5 and 10-15%, respectively.

If the above forecast estimates of moderate (and even more dramatic) climate warming in northern regions, then by the middle of the new century the appearance of permafrost in Russia will change significantly.

The negative consequences of climate warming will apparently be aggravated by a simultaneous increase in precipitation. Although trends are difficult to trace, it has been noted that over the past millennium, during periods of warming, the paths of cyclones from west to east have shifted north, causing an increase in precipitation in high latitudes and a decrease in low latitudes." Numerous paleogeographic studies also show that during Pleistocene and Holocene warming in high latitudes was accompanied by an increase in climate humidity. It can be assumed that in most of Russia the expected warming of the 21st century will also be accompanied by an increase in precipitation. This general assumption is confirmed by the results of an analysis of modern trends in meteorological characteristics, which indicate 10-15. percentage increase in precipitation by 2050

With global warming, there will be an increase in evaporation from the surface of ocean waters and an associated increase in climate humidity. As a result of the combined action of these two factors, a significant increase can be expected. river flow, by about 10%, especially in Europe and Africa. In our country, an increase in precipitation is possible in arid regions (Kalmykia, Lower Volga region). At the same time, due to an increase in evaporation, desertification will occur in the arid zones of the Mediterranean.

An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the atmosphere can increase the intensity of photosynthesis and, therefore, will contribute to an increase in the productivity of both natural forest formations (Australian rainforests and eucalyptus forests) and cultivated plants. For example, in China, the direct effects of increased CO 2 in the atmosphere will lead to an increase in the productivity of monsoon forests by 9.5-14%. It is estimated that when the CO 2 concentration is doubled, a significant increase in the productivity of C3 plants (more than 90% of terrestrial flora), in which the photosynthetic apparatus is ready to increase the carbon dioxide content without adaptation, is expected. This process will have a somewhat lesser impact on C4 plants (chenozemeaceae, grasses, Asteraceae, cruciferous plants, etc.), but they will experience morphological changes: an increase in growth, leaf surface, etc.

Global warming by the middle of the 21st century. may lead to a shift in the boundaries of vegetation zones (tundra, forests temperate zone, steppes, etc.) potentially for hundreds of kilometers. Thus, in the northern regions of Eurasia, the boundaries of plant zones will move north by 500-600 km, and the tundra zone will significantly decrease in size. According to UNEP, climate change is forecast to see an accelerated decline in tropical forests and savannas in Africa.

3. Prospects for development and solutions to environmental problems of climate change

IN lately Attention to greenhouse gas research has increased due to the problems of ratification and implementation by various countries of the 1997 United Nations Framework Agreement on Climate Change, abbreviated as the Kyoto Protocol. The importance of such research was specifically outlined in the resolution of the Summit of the Heads of 8 Leading Powers in Genoa in July 2001.

Humanity is too slow to understand the scale of the danger created by a careless attitude towards the environment. Meanwhile, the solution (if it is still possible) of such formidable global problems as environmental ones requires urgent, energetic joint efforts of international organizations, states, regions, and the public.

Talking about possible options development ecological situation on the planet, the most meaningful conversation seems to be about some of the directions that exist today environmental activities. Otherwise we would have to talk exclusively about the horrors of natural resource depletion.

In 1982, the UN adopted a special document - the World Conservation Charter, and then created a special commission on environment and development. In 1983, the UN created a commission on environment and development, which published the report “Our Common Future” in 1987. The leitmotif of the report was famous phrase: “Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable—to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Although how to do this was not explained.

It is characteristic that the Council of the Club of Rome in 1989 also qualified sustainable development as a utopia, but “deserving of striving for it.” At the same time, the Club Council decided to change the tactics of its activities and move from discussing environmental issues to developing a Strategy for international action in the 21st century. century According to the club, these actions should lead to the "first global revolution." However, the content and mechanisms of this socio-ecological revolution were not disclosed either in the wills of A. Peccei or in the book of the new leaders of the club.

Despite the fact that each of the global problems discussed has its own options for partial or more complete solution, there is a certain set of general approaches to solving environmental problems. In addition, over the last century, humanity has developed a number of original ways to combat its own nature-destroying shortcomings.

Such methods (or possible ways to solve the problem) include the emergence and activities of various kinds of “green” movements and organizations. In addition to the notorious “Green Peace”, which is distinguished not only by the scope of its activities, but also, at times, by the noticeable extremism of its actions, as well as similar organizations that directly carry out environmental actions, there is another type of environmental organizations - structures that stimulate and sponsor environmental activities - such as Wildlife Foundation. All environmental organizations exist in one of the forms: public, private state or mixed type organizations.

In addition to various types of associations that defend civilization’s rights to the nature it is gradually destroying, in the sphere of solving environmental problems There are a number of government or public environmental initiatives. For example, environmental legislation in Russia and other countries of the world, various international agreements or the “Red Books” system.

International “Red Book” - a list of rare and endangered species of animals and plants - in present moment includes 5 volumes of materials. In addition, there are national and even regional “Red Books”.

Among the most important ways solutions to environmental problems, most researchers also highlight the introduction of environmentally friendly, low- and waste-free technologies, construction treatment facilities, rational location of production and use of natural resources.

Although, undoubtedly - and this is proven by the whole move human history- the most important direction in solving the environmental problems facing civilization is to increase ecological culture human, serious environmental education and upbringing, everything that eradicates the main environmental conflict - the conflict between the savage consumer and the rational inhabitant of the fragile world that exists in the human mind.

Conclusion

Let us summarize the main results of the work.

Environmentalists from all countries note a sharp warming of the Earth's climate. This climate change is called the “greenhouse effect.”

The main cause of the greenhouse effect is human production activity, which is accompanied by an ever-increasing amount of carbon dioxide, methane and other optically active gases released into the atmosphere.

Although climate change, whether natural or caused by human activity (so-called anthropogenic), occurs relatively slowly, it covers vast regions and can therefore represent serious problem for humanity.

The severity of modern environmental problems requires the participation of the broad masses of the population in solving them. Any technological, organizational and economic measures can give the desired effect only if the environmental idea takes hold of the masses. Mass environmental education is designed to shape the ecological worldview, morality and ecological culture of people. To achieve these goals, we need the integration of all knowledge, both natural and social laws functioning of the environment.

The catastrophic consequences of climate change on Earth are almost inevitable, and we can only talk about their mitigation.

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Climate disasters of the past open up grim prospects for the future March 14th, 2017

Human activity is changing the Earth's climate. Most scientists agree with this. But debate about the speed of change and the impact of climatic metamorphoses on people does not subside. Surprisingly, the answers to questions about how climate change will affect our future may lie in the past, especially if we're talking about about the health of the planet's inhabitants.

Australian health expert Anthony McMichael set out to raise all these points in his book Climate Change and the Health of Nations: Famine, Fever and the Fate of Populations. McMichael died unexpectedly in 2014 without completing his work. It was supplemented by epidemiologist Alistair Woodward. He explained how man-made global warming is different from climate change that occurred naturally in the past; why Mozart became a victim of El Niño; and how quickly catastrophic famine and infectious disease will occur if we do not act.